Bruce R. Kuniholm

Turkey and the World in Twenty-Five Years: Thinking about the Future

This article explores Turkey’s future and its relations with the European Union (EU), the United States, and the world. While the fault lines that help to frame the tectonic shifts in Turkey’s evolving identity are unquestionably being redrawn and will have a critical bearing on how Turkey positions itself relative to the rest of the world, it is my belief that the importance of the Turkish state in the geopolitical world will not diminish and that Turkey will play an increasingly significant role in world affairs. It has become commonplace to argue that in an era of globalization the state system has become less relevant; that economic, cultural, and other dimensions of human existence, to the extent that they transcend traditional boundaries, have opened the way to an international identity crisis where people throughout the world are struggling to think about how they define themselves outside the boundaries of the state system; and that the major questions they confront involve how they want their countries to position themselves relative to these forces. Evidence of this phenomenon was apparent in the debates over Maastricht and NAFTA. In spite

Turkey and the United States : the arms embargo period

This volume examines the impact of the arms embargo imposed by the United States against Turkey in 1974. The author concludes that the arms embargo as a tool of influence did not achieve the desired results for two reasons. First, the arms embargo, while widely used by the United States, almost never had the intended effect on the policies of the targeted state. Second, Turkish concerns about the nature of their relationship with the United States were exacerbated by the stress of the embargo. United States insensitivity to Turkish history and culture and Turkeys inability to understand American policies contributed greatly to the difficulties faced by the United States and Turkey in maintaining an alliance relationship during the embargo period.

Sovereignty, democracy and identity: Turkey's Kurdish problem and the West's Turkish problem

Turkeys perception of itself as a major power has been fed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and by the resentment caused by its failure to become a member of the European Union. Islamism is, however, a response to government ineptitude and incompetence and the major domestic problem Turkey faces relates to the Kurdish ethnic minority. The majority of Kurds do not seek an independent state but are increasingly alienated by the Turkish governments repressiveness towards them and their cultural identity. European support for the case of imprisoned Kurdish MPs, such as Leyla Zana, may have more to do with European ignorance than with an understanding of her role in supporting Kurdish rights in Turkey. While she should, perhaps, have been acquitted on the evidence presented in court, her association with the PKK undermined the effectiveness of her supporters’ claims. Western states should be more concerned over effective pressure for human rights observance in Turkey than either over Islamic fundamentalis...

The Geopolitics of the Region

This essay examines the current geopolitical situation in the Caspian Basin and the extent to which it differs from the historical “Great Game ” played by imperial powers in the previous centuries. It looks first at a number of critical issues that shape the dynamics of relationships among countries in the Caspian Basin:resources, their location and various countries’ jurisdiction (and claims of ownership) over them, market factors, transport options (access), and environmental concerns, as well as the role of Islam and ethnicity in shaping the region’s emerging identities. It then turns to an assessment of Russian and U.S. interests (and to a lesser extent Turkish and Iranian interests) perceived to be at stake and the policies that result from those perceived interests. It concludes that the unanswered question most critical to the future of the Caspian Basin (and to the geopolitics of the region) is the future direction of Russia, and that until this question is answered, the vision for Central Asia articulated by Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott on July 12, 1997,remains the most conducive to the region’s development and prosperity.

Turkey: America's Forgotten Ally

Since the end of World War II, the main strategic role of Turkey, as seen by her Western allies and by some elements at least among her southern neighbors, was to serve as a barrier; more successfully, to block the path of Soviet expansions into the Middle East. It is in large measure thanks to the existence and effectiveness of the Turkish barrier that Soviet successes in the Arab countries, though often great, were always precarious. Based on Turkeys old historical, cultural and religious ties, the Middle East was able to thwart the spread of communism. However, in recent years, this has been underpinned by a growing economic relationship between the Middle East and Turkey. Turkeys role with its Middle East partners and western ties from beginnings of the Cold War has allowed the Turkish government to form a unique and interesting bond in the region. As Rustow, while not undermining the role as a barrier in the region, draws attention to another and overlooked importance- that of a cultural and commercial bridge between the West and the Middle East. This is important when coupled with Turkeys ability to improve the relations with non-Western supporters or even anti-western groupings. This last is an important point ant a major focus Rustows important Study. That an alliance is far more valuable and effective when it is based not only on perceived common interests but on genuine affinities- a community of beliefs and values.

The Carter Doctrine, the Reagan Corollary, and Prospects for United States Policy in Southwest Asia

When the Carter Doctrine was enunciated in January 1980, the United States was still reeling from a series of blows to its strategic position in Southwest Asia.1 In February 1979, the shah of Iran had been overthrown; subsequent relations with his successors, troubled by the legacy of United States support for the shah, were increasingly complicated by the ongoing revolution in Iran and, after November 1979, by the frustrating interaction between Iranian politics and the hostage crisis. An attack on Meccas Grand Mosque in December, moreover, suggested that fundamentalist Islam was not unique to Iran, but was an emerging force on the Arabian Peninsula. The burning of the American embassy in Islamabad (precipitated by the erroneous belief that the United States was responsible for the attack on the Grand Mosque) indicated the extent to which the United States was perceived by Muslims throughout the region as hostile to Islam.

Carrots or Sticks? The Question of United States Influence over Israel

The Peace Brokers: Mediators in the Arab-Israeli Conflict, 1948-1979 by Saadia Touval (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1982, xiv/3 7 7 pp, us

The Origins of the Cold War in the Near East: Great Power Conflict and Diplomacy in Iran, Turkey, and Greece

3o.oo cloth, us

Turkey and the West

11.50 paper). White House Years and Years of Upheaval by Henry Kissinger (Boston: Little Brown, 1979 and 1982, xxiv11521 pp and xxii/128 3 pp,

The Origins of the Cold War in the Near East

25.oo and