Bruno Ledergerber

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND Insufficient data are available from single cohort studies to allow estimation of the prognosis of HIV-1 infected, treatment-naive patients who start highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The ART Cohort Collaboration, which includes 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America, was established to fill this knowledge gap. METHODS We analysed data on 12,574 adult patients starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. We considered progression to a combined endpoint of a new AIDS-defining disease or death, and to death alone. The prognostic model that generalised best was a Weibull model, stratified by baseline CD4 cell count and transmission group. FINDINGS During 24,310 person-years of follow up, 1094 patients developed AIDS or died and 344 patients died. Baseline CD4 cell count was strongly associated with the probability of progression to AIDS or death: compared with patients starting HAART with less than 50 CD4 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios were 0.74 (95% CI 0.62-0.89) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.52 (0.44-0.63) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.24 (0.20-0.30) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.14-0.22) for 350 or more CD4 cells/microL. Baseline HIV-1 viral load was associated with a higher probability of progression only if 100,000 copies/microL or above. Other independent predictors of poorer outcome were advanced age, infection through injection-drug use, and a previous diagnosis of AIDS. The probability of progression to AIDS or death at 3 years ranged from 3.4% (2.8-4.1) in patients in the lowest-risk stratum for each prognostic variable, to 50% (43-58) in patients in the highest-risk strata. INTERPRETATION The CD4 cell count at initiation was the dominant prognostic factor in patients starting HAART. Our findings have important implications for clinical management and should be taken into account in future treatment guidelines.

Inflammatory and Coagulation Biomarkers and Mortality in Patients with HIV Infection

Background In the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy trial, all-cause mortality was higher for participants randomized to intermittent, CD4-guided antiretroviral treatment (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) than continuous ART (viral suppression [VS]). We hypothesized that increased HIV-RNA levels following ART interruption induced activation of tissue factor pathways, thrombosis, and fibrinolysis. Methods and Findings Stored samples were used to measure six biomarkers: high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), amyloid A, amyloid P, D-dimer, and prothrombin fragment 1+2. Two studies were conducted: (1) a nested case–control study for studying biomarker associations with mortality, and (2) a study to compare DC and VS participants for biomarker changes. For (1), markers were determined at study entry and before death (latest level) for 85 deaths and for two controls (n = 170) matched on country, age, sex, and date of randomization. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with logistic regression. For each biomarker, each of the three upper quartiles was compared to the lowest quartile. For (2), the biomarkers were assessed for 249 DC and 250 VS participants at study entry and 1 mo following randomization. Higher levels of hsCRP, IL-6, and D-dimer at study entry were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unadjusted ORs (highest versus lowest quartile) were 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0–4.1; p = 0.05), 8.3 (95% CI, 3.3–20.8; p < 0.0001), and 12.4 (95% CI, 4.2–37.0; p < 0.0001), respectively. Associations were significant after adjustment, when the DC and VS groups were analyzed separately, and when latest levels were assessed. IL-6 and D-dimer increased at 1 mo by 30% and 16% in the DC group and by 0% and 5% in the VS group (p < 0.0001 for treatment difference for both biomarkers); increases in the DC group were related to HIV-RNA levels at 1 mo (p < 0.0001). In an expanded case–control analysis (four controls per case), the OR (DC/VS) for mortality was reduced from 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1–3.1; p = 0.02) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.8–2.8) and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.8–2.5) after adjustment for latest levels of IL-6 and D-dimer, respectively. Conclusions IL-6 and D-dimer were strongly related to all-cause mortality. Interrupting ART may further increase the risk of death by raising IL-6 and D-dimer levels. Therapies that reduce the inflammatory response to HIV and decrease IL-6 and D-dimer levels may warrant investigation. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00027352).

Decline in the AIDS and death rates in the EuroSIDA study: an observational study

BACKGROUND Since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), little is known about whether changes in HIV-1 mortality and morbidity rates have been sustained. We aimed to assess possible changes in these rates across Europe. METHODS We analysed data for 9803 patients in 70 European HIV centres including ones in Israel and Argentina. Incidence rates of AIDS or death were calculated for overall and most recent CD4 count in 6-monthly periods and in three treatment eras (pre-HAART, 1994-1995; early-HAART, 1996-1997; and late-HAART, 1998-2002). FINDINGS The incidence of AIDS or death fell after September, 1998, by 8% per 6-month period (rate ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.95, p<0.0001). When AIDS and death were analysed separately, the incidence of all deaths during the late-HAART era was significantly lower than that during the early-HAART era in patients whose latest CD4 count was 20 cells/microL or less (0.43, 0.35-0.53, p<0.0001), but at higher CD4 counts, did not differ between early-HAART and late-HAART. Incidence of AIDS was about 50% lower in late-HAART than in early-HAART, irrespective of latest CD4 count (p<0.0001). In multivariate Coxs models, with early-HAART as the reference, there was an increased risk of AIDS (relative hazard 1.39; 95% CI 1.16-1.67, p=0.0004) and all deaths (1.29; 1.08-1.56, p=0.0065) in the pre-HAART era, and a reduced risk of AIDS (0.62; 0.50-0.77, p<0.0001) and all deaths (0.66; 0.53-0.82, p=0.0002) in the late-HAART era. INTERPRETATION The initial drop in mortality and morbidity after the introduction of HAART has been sustained. Potential long-term adverse effects associated with HAART have not altered its effectiveness in treating AIDS.

Clinical progression and virological failure on highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 patients: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND The efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in suppression of HIV-1 is well documented. We investigated virological and clinical outcomes of HAART in routine practice. METHODS We analysed prospective data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on suppression of viral load and progression to AIDS or death in 2674 outpatients (median age 36 years, 27.3% women) who started HAART in 1995-98. Viral rebound was defined as two consecutive HIV-1-RNA measurements of more than 400 copies/mL. We analysed separately outcomes in patients with a history of antiretroviral treatment and in treatment-naïve patients. FINDINGS An estimated 90.7% of treatment-naïve patients reached undetectable viral load (<400 copies/mL) by 12 months. Among pretreated patients, estimates ranged from 70.3% treated with one new drug to 78.7% on three new drugs. 2 years after reaching undetectable concentrations, an estimated 20.1% of treatment-naïve patients and 35.7-40.1% of pretreated patients had viral rebound. At 30 months, an estimated 6.6% (95% CI 4.6-8.6) of patients who had maintained undetectable concentrations, 9.0% (5.5-12.5) who had viral rebound, and 20.1% (15.3-24.9) who had never reached undetectable concentrations developed AIDS or died. Compared with patients who maintained undetectable viral load, the adjusted relative hazard of AIDS or death was 1.00 (0.66-1.55) for patients with viral rebound, and 2.40 (1.72-3.33) for patients who failed to reach undetectable concentrations. INTERPRETATION The rate of virological failure of HAART was high among these patients, but the probability of clinical progression was low even in patients with viral rebound.

Clinical progression, survival, and immune recovery during antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus coinfection: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is highly prevalent among HIV-1-infected individuals, but its contribution to the morbidity and mortality of coinfected patients who receive potent antiretroviral therapy is controversial. We used data from the ongoing Swiss HIV Cohort Study to analyse clinical progression of HIV-1, and the virological and immunological response to potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected patients with or without concurrent HCV infection. METHODS We analysed prospective data on survival, clinical disease progression, suppression of HIV-1 replication, CD4-cell recovery, and frequency of changes in antiretroviral therapy according to HCV status in 3111 patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy. RESULTS 1157 patients (37.2%) were coinfected with HCV, 1015 of whom (87.7%) had a history of intravenous drug use. In multivariate Coxs regression, the probability of progression to a new AIDS-defining clinical event or to death was independently associated with HCV seropositivity (hazard ratio 1.7 [95% CI 1.26-2.30]), and with active intravenous drug use (1.38 [1.02-1.88]). Virological response to antiretroviral therapy and the probability of treatment change were not associated with HCV serostatus. In contrast, HCV seropositivity was associated with a smaller CD4-cell recovery (hazard ratio for a CD4-cell count increase of at least 50 cells/microL=0.79 [0.72-0.87]). INTERPRETATION HCV and active intravenous drug use could be important factors in the morbidity and mortality among HIV-1-infected patients, possibly through impaired CD4-cell recovery in HCV seropositive patients receiving potent antiretroviral therapy. These findings are relevant for decisions about optimum timing for HCV treatment in the setting of HIV infection.

Long-term effectiveness of potent antiretroviral therapy in preventing AIDS and death: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Evidence on the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV-infected individuals is limited. Most clinical trials examined surrogate endpoints over short periods of follow-up and there has been no placebo-controlled randomised trial of HAART. Estimation of treatment effects in observational studies is problematic, because of confounding by indication. We aimed to use novel methodology to overcome this problem in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS Patients were included if they had been examined after January 1996, when HAART became available in Switzerland, were not on HAART, and were free of AIDS at baseline. Cox regression models were weighted to create a statistical population in which the probability of being treated at each time point was unrelated to prognostic factors. RESULTS Low CD4 counts and increasing HIV-1 viral load were associated with increased probability of starting HAART. Overall hazard ratios were 0.14 (95% CI 0.07-0.29) for HAART compared with no treatment, and 0.49 (0.31-0.79) compared with dual therapy. Compared with no treatment, HAART became more beneficial with increasing time since initiation but was less beneficial for patients whose presumed mode of transmission was via intravenous drug use (hazard ratio 0.27, 0.12-0.61) than for other patients (0.08, 0.03-0.19). INTERPRETATION Our results, which are appropriately controlled for confounding by indication, are consistent with reported declines in rates of AIDS and death in developed countries, and provide a context in which to consider adverse effects of HAART.

Hepatitis B and HIV: prevalence, AIDS progression, response to highly active antiretroviral therapy and increased mortality in the EuroSIDA cohort

Background: Whether hepatitis B (HBV) coinfection affects outcome in HIV-1-infected patients remains unclear. Objective: To assess the prevalence of HBV (assessed as HBsAg) coinfection and its possible impact on progression to AIDS, all-cause deaths, liver-related deaths and response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the EuroSIDA cohort. Methods: Data on 9802 patients in 72 European HIV centres were analysed. Incidence rates of AIDS, global mortality and liver-related mortality, time to 25% CD4 cell count increase and time to viral load < 400 copies/ml after starting HAART were calculated and compared between HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients. Results: HBsAg was found in 498 (8.7%) patients. The incidence of new AIDS diagnosis was similar in HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients (3.3 and 3.4/100 person-years, respectively) even after adjustment for potential confounders: the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74–1.19; P = 0.61]. The incidences of all-cause and liver-related mortalities were significantly higher in HBsAg-positive subjects (3.7 and 0.7/100 person-years, respectively) compared with HBsAg-negative subjects (2.6 and 0.2/100 person-years, respectively). The adjusted IRR values were 1.53 for global (95% CI, 1.23–1.90; P = 0.0001) and 3.58 for liver-related (95% CI, 2.09–6.16; P < 0.0001) mortality. HBsAg status did not influence viral or immunological responses among the 1679 patients starting HAART. Conclusions: The prevalence of HBV coinfection was 9% in the EuroSIDA cohort. Chronic HBV infection significantly increased liver-related mortality in HIV-1-infected patients but did not impact on progression to AIDS or on viral and immunological responses to HAART.

Causes of death in HIV-1-infected patients treated with antiretroviral therapy, 1996-2006: collaborative analysis of 13 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND We examined specific causes of mortality in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Europe and North America from 1996 through 2006, and we quantified associations of prognostic factors with cause-specific mortality. METHODS We retrospectively classified all deaths among 39,272 patients enrolled in 13 HIV-1 cohorts (154,667 person years of follow-up) into the categories specified in the Cause of Death (CoDe) project protocol. RESULTS In 1597 (85%) of 1876 deaths, a definitive cause of death could be assigned. Among these, 792 deaths (49.5%) were AIDS related, followed by non-AIDS malignancies (189; 11.8%), non-AIDS infections (131; 8.2%), violence- and/or drug-related causes (124; 7.7%), liver disease (113; 7.0%), and cardiovascular disease (103; 6.5%). Rates of AIDS-related death (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 cell decrease, 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-1.53) and death from renal failure (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.18-2.55) were strongly inversely related to CD4 count at initiation of ART, whereas rates of death attributable to AIDS (HR for viral load >5 vs 5 log copies/mL, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12-1.53), infection (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.25-2.73), cardiovascular (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05-2.27), and respiratory causes (HR, 3.62; 95% CI, 1.30-10.09) were higher in patients with baseline viral load >5 log copies/mL than in other patients. Rates of each cause of death were higher in patients with presumed transmission via injection drug use than in other patients, with marked increases in rates of liver-related (HR for injection drug use vs non-injection drug use, 6.06; 95% CI, 4.03-9.09) and respiratory tract-related (HR, 4.94; 95% CI, 1.96-12.45) mortality. The proportion of deaths classified as AIDS related decreased with increasing duration of ART. CONCLUSIONS Important contributors to non-AIDS mortality in treated HIV-1-infected individuals must be addressed if decreases in mortality rates are to continue.

Morbidity and Aging in HIV-Infected Persons: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Patterns of morbidity and mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals taking antiretroviral therapy are changing as a result of immune reconstitution and improved survival. We studied the influence of aging on the epidemiology of non-AIDS diseases in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS The Swiss HIV Cohort Study is a prospective observational cohort established in 1988 with continuous enrollment. We determined the incidence of clinical events (per 1000 person-years) from January 2008 (when a new questionnaire on non-AIDS-related morbidity was introduced) through December 2010. Differences across age groups were analyzed using Cox regression, adjusted for CD4 cell count, viral load, sex, injection drug use, smoking, and years of HIV infection. RESULTS Overall, 8444 (96%) of 8848 participants contributed data from 40,720 semiannual visits; 2233 individuals (26.4%) were aged 50-64 years, and 450 (5.3%) were aged ≥65 years. The median duration of HIV infection was 15.4 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.59-22.0 years); 23.2% had prior clinical AIDS. We observed 994 incident non-AIDS events in the reference period: 201 cases of bacterial pneumonia, 55 myocardial infarctions, 39 strokes, 70 cases of diabetes mellitus, 123 trauma-associated fractures, 37 fractures without adequate trauma, and 115 non-AIDS malignancies. Multivariable hazard ratios for stroke (17.7; CI, 7.06-44.5), myocardial infarction (5.89; 95% CI, 2.17-16.0), diabetes mellitus (3.75; 95% CI, 1.80-7.85), bone fractures without adequate trauma (10.5; 95% CI, 3.58-30.5), osteoporosis (9.13; 95% CI, 4.10-20.3), and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (6.88; 95% CI, 3.89-12.2) were elevated for persons aged ≥65 years. CONCLUSIONS Comorbidity and multimorbidity because of non-AIDS diseases, particularly diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and osteoporosis, become more important in care of HIV-infected persons and increase with older age.

Influence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection on HIV-1 Disease Progression and Response to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

OBJECTIVE To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody prevalence in the EuroSIDA cohort, along with survival, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 disease progression, virologic response (plasma HIV-1 RNA load of < 500 copies/mL), and CD4 cell count recovery by HCV serostatus in patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). RESULTS HCV serostatus at or before enrollment was available for 5957 patients; 1960 (33%) and 3997 (67%) were HCV seropositive and seronegative, respectively. No association between an increased incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining illnesses or death and HCV serostatus was seen after adjustment for other prognostic risk factors known at baseline (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.97 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.81-1.16]). However, there was a large increase in the incidence of liver disease-related deaths in HCV-seropositive patients in adjusted models (IRR, 11.71 [95% CI, 6.42-21.34]). Among 2260 patients of known HCV serostatus initiating HAART, after adjustment, there was no significant difference between HCV-seropositive and -seronegative patients with respect to virologic response (relative hazard [RH], 1.13 [95% CI, 0.84-1.51]) and immunologic response, whether measured as a > or = 50% increase (RH, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.77-1.16]) or a > or = 50 cells/microL increase (RH, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.77-1.11]) in CD4 cell count after HAART initiation. CONCLUSIONS HCV serostatus did not affect the risk of HIV-1 disease progression, but the risk of liver disease-related deaths was markedly increased in HCV-seropositive patients. The overall virologic and immunologic responses to HAART were not affected by HCV serostatus.