Bruno M. Meneses

An integrated approach for the assessment of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus global spatial distribution, and determination of the zones susceptible to the development of Zika virus.

The Zika virus, one of the new epidemic diseases, is reported to have affected millions of people in the past year. The suitable climate conditions of the areas where Zika virus has been reported, especially in areas with a high population density, are the main cause of the current outbreak and spread of the disease. Indeed, the suitable climatic conditions of certain territories constitute perfect breading nest for the propagation and outbreak of worldwide diseases. The main objective of this research is to analyze the global distribution and predicted areas of both mosquitoes Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus which are the main vectors of Zika virus. Physical (SRTM) and climatic variables (WorldClim) were used to obtain the susceptibility maps based on the optimum conditions for the development of these mosquitoes. The susceptibility model was developed using a Species Distribution Model - correlative model, namely the Maximum Entropy, that used as input the spatial references of both vectors (Dryad Digital Repository). The results show the most important classes of each independent variable used in assessing the presence of each species of mosquitoes and the areas susceptible to the presence of these vector species. It turns out that Ae. aegypti has greater global dispersion than the Ae. albopictus specie, although two common regions stand out as the most prone to the presence of both mosquito species (tropical and subtropical zones). The crossing of these areas of greater susceptibility with areas of greater population density (e.g. India, China, Se of USA and Brazil) shows some agreement, and these areas stand out due to the presence of several records of Zika virus (HealthMap Project). In this sense, through the intersection of susceptibility and human exposure the areas with increased risk of development and spread of Zika virus are pinpointed, suggesting that there may be a new outbreak of this virus in these places, if preventive measures are not adopted.

An integrated approach for wind fields assessment in coastal areas, based on bioindicators, CFD modeling, and observations

Wind-deformed trees can be good bioindicators of the mean wind speed and prevailing wind directions. The current research used bioindicators, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and linear models to assess the wind fields in the windy coastal area of Cascais/Portugal. The main objectives of this research are to assess mean speed and directions of winds by using bioindicators and modeling techniques and to correlate both results in order to assess the best methods. The results obtained with the bioindicators showed that carpeting, the most severe deformation, was observed near the shoreline showing that the highest wind speeds are felt in this sector. Inland, where the winds have lower mean speeds, flagging forms are more frequent. When correlated with the bioindicators, the linear model gave better results than CFD models. We can conclude that in areas with good wind potential, the use of bioindicators can be a good alternative in the absence of wind data.

Assessment of the recurrence interval of wildfires in mainland Portugal and the identification of affected LUC patterns

ABSTRACT Wildfires are responsible for major land use and land cover (LUC) changes. These events are frequent and catastrophic in Portugal and are responsible for great damage and loss of human life. In this study, a map to assess the probability of wildfire occurrence (PWO) in mainland Portugal was created for the period 1975-2017 (first half of 2017). The PWO was obtained by the superimposition of all layers by adding all the burned areas for the total period. It was observed that the occurrences and extent of the burned areas are highly variable from year to year. The PWO map was cross-referenced with LUC geoinformation to evaluate the LUC types that were more affected by the wildfires. The results presented and the PWO maps are important for the management and planning of forest areas and for the creation of guidelines to implement preventive and reactive actions in case of wildfires.

Metodologia para a avaliação das alterações do uso e ocupação do solo em Portugal Continental nas últimas três décadas

In last decades Portugal has undergone major changes in land use and land cover (LULC). However, these changes have not been quantified for years before 1985, which is a innovative test in this perspective, that presents an estimate of the changes between 1980 and 2010 on a continental scale, based on samples of LULC. The LULC used information in these assessments resulted from a combination of different methodologies, from the selection of aerial photographs, georeferencing, vectorization of LULC, to extrapolate to Portugal Continental. The present paper presents these methods and varations of LULC estimated at three times (decades of 1980/95, 1995/2010 and 1980/2010). The results highlight the occupation of forest and agricultural land at the three times, demonstrating the increase over time of the second type, due to the detriment of the losses occurring in the first type.