Bruno Majone

Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in the south-eastern Alpine region

Climate change is expected to cause alterations of streamflow regimes in the Alpine region, with possible relevant consequences for several socio-economic sectors including hydropower production. The impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower production is evaluated with reference to the Noce catchment, which is located in the Southeastern Alps, Italy. Projected changes of precipitation and temperature, derived from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) runs for the period 2040-2070 under the SRES A1B emission scenario, have been downscaled and bias corrected before using them as climatic forcing in a hydrological model. Projections indicate an increase of the mean temperature of the catchment in the range 2-4K, depending on the climate model used. Projections of precipitation indicate an increase of annual precipitation in the range between 2% and 6% with larger changes in winter and autumn. Hydrological simulations show an increase of water yield during the period 2040-2070 with respect to 1970-2000. Furthermore, a transition from glacio-nival to nival regime is projected for the catchment. Hydrological regime is expected to change as a consequence of less winter precipitation falling as snow and anticipated melting in spring, with the runoff peak decreasing in intensity and anticipating from July to June. Changes in water availability reflect in the Technical Hydropower Potential (THP) of the catchment, with larger changes projected for the hydropower plants located at the highest altitudes. Finally, the impacts on THP of water use policies such as the introduction of prescriptions for minimum ecological flow (MEF) have been analyzed. Simulations indicate that in the lower part of the catchment reduction of the hydropower production due to MEF releases from the storage reservoirs counterbalances the benefits associated to the projected increases of inflows as foreseen by simulations driven only by climate change.

A review of hydrological and chemical stressors in the Adige catchment and its ecological status

Quantifying the effects of multiple stressors on Alpine freshwater ecosystems is challenging, due to the lack of tailored field campaigns for the contemporaneous measurement of hydrological, chemical and ecological parameters. Conducting exhaustive field campaigns is costly and hence most of the activities so far have been performed addressing specific environmental issues. An accurate analysis of existing information is therefore useful and necessary, to identify stressors that may act in synergy and to design new field campaigns. We present an extended review of available studies and datasets concerning the hydrological, chemical and ecological status of the Adige, which is the second longest river and the third largest river basin in Italy. The most relevant stressors are discussed in the light of the information extracted from a large number of studies. The detailed analysis of these studies identified that hydrological alterations caused by hydropower production are the main source of stress for the freshwater ecosystems in the Adige catchment. However, concurrent effects with other stressors, such as the release of pollutants from waste water treatment plants or from agricultural and industrial activities, have not been explored at depth, so far. A wealth of available studies address a single stressor separately without exploring their concurrent effect. It is concluded that a combination of extended experimental field campaigns, focusing on the coupled effects of multiple stressors, and modeling activities is highly needed in order to quantify the impact of the multifaceted human pressures on freshwater ecosystems in the Adige river.

Occurrence of halogenated and organophosphate flame retardants in sediment and fish samples from three European river basins

Classic (polybromodiphenyl ethers, PBDEs) and emerging halogenated flame retardants (HFRs) such as decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) and halogenated norbornenes, as well as organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) were analysed in 52 sediments and 27 fish samples from three European river basins, namely the Evrotas (Greece), the Adige (Italy) and the Sava (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia). This is the first time that FR levels have been reported in these three European river basins. The highest contamination was found in the Adige and Sava rivers, whereas lower values were obtained for the Evrotas. The levels in sediment samples ranged between 0.25 and 34.0ng/g dw, and between 0.31 and 549ng/g dw, for HFRs and OPFRs respectively. As regards levels in fish, concentrations ranged between 9.32 and 461ng/g lw and between 14.4 and 650ng/g lw, for HFRs and OPFRs, respectively. Thus, whereas OPFR values were higher in sediments, similar concentrations (in the Evrotas) and even lower concentrations than HFRs (Sava) were found for OPFRs in the fish samples, indicating the lower bioaccumulation potential of OPFRs. Biota to sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) were calculated and higher values were obtained for HFRs compared to those assessed for OPFRs.

Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic implications to the agricultural sector. The model couples physical processes (hydrology) and regulatory and economic processes (agricultural water demand, reservoir operation). Five scenarios, covering currently ongoing changes in climatic conditions, agriculture and hydrological planning, are evaluated. Our results suggest that the scenarios’ impacts on water resources and regional agricultural income are significant. Policy responses such as investments in modernization of irrigation technology would mitigate the negative impacts of climatic change on the agricultural sector, but the implementation costs outweigh the extra regional agricultural income. Also, a planned reservoir extension project appears ineffective, even considering effects of climatic change. Although our results are site-specific, our methodology is relevant to other areas that face comparable problems of water scarcity.

The role of stratification on lakes' thermal response: The case of Lake Superior

During the last several decades, the Great Lakes region has been experiencing a significant rise in temperatures, with the extraordinary summer warming that affected Lake Superior in 1998 as an example of the marked response of the lake to increasingly warmer atmospheric conditions. In this work, we combine the analysis of this exceptional event with some synthetic scenarios, to achieve a deeper understanding of the main processes driving the thermal dynamics of surface water temperature in Lake Superior. The analysis is performed by means of the lumped model air2water, which simulates lake surface temperature as a function of air temperature alone. The model provides information about the seasonal stratification dynamics, suggesting that unusual warming events can result from two factors: anomalously high summer air temperatures, and increased strength of stratification resulting from a warm spring. The relative contribution of the two factors is quantified using the model by means of synthetic scenarios, which provide a simple but effective description of the positive feedback between the thermal behavior and the stratification dynamics of the lake.

Hydroclimatic and water quality trends across three Mediterranean river basins

Water resources are under pressure from multiple anthropogenic stressors such as changing climate, agriculture and water abstraction. This holds, in particular, for the Mediterranean region, where substantial changes in climate are expected throughout the 21st century. Nonetheless, little attention has been paid to linkages between long-term trends in climate, streamflow and water quality in Mediterranean river basins. In the present study, we perform a comparative analysis of recent trends in hydroclimatic parameters and nitrate pollution in three climatologically different Mediterranean watersheds (i.e., the Adige, Ebro and Sava River Basins). Mann-Kendall trend analyses of annual mean temperature, precipitation and streamflow (period 1971 to 2010) and monthly nitrate concentrations, mass fluxes and flow-adjusted concentrations (period 1996 to 2012) were performed in these river basins. Temperature is shown to have increased the most in the Ebro followed by the Sava, whereas minor increases are observed in the Adige. Precipitation presents, overall, a negative trend in the Ebro and a positive trend in both the Adige and Sava. These climatic trends thus suggest the highest risk of increasing water scarcity for the Ebro and the lowest risk for the Adige. This is confirmed by trend analyses of streamflow time series, which indicate a severe decline in streamflow for the Ebro and a substantial decline in the Sava, as opposed to the Adige showing no prevailing trend. Concerning surface water quality, nitrate pollution appears to have decreased in all study basins. Overall, these findings emphasize progressive reduction of water resources availability in river basins characterized by continental climate (i.e., Ebro and Sava). This study thus underlines the need for adapted river management in the Mediterranean region, particularly considering strong feedbacks between hydroclimatic trends, freshwater ecosystem services and water resources availability for agriculture, water supply and hydropower generation.

Soil–plant interaction monitoring: Small scale example of an apple orchard in Trentino, North-Eastern Italy

Accurate monitoring and modeling of soil-plant systems are a key unresolved issue that currently limits the development of a comprehensive view of the interactions between soil and atmosphere, with a number of practical consequences including the difficulties in predicting climatic change patterns. This paper presents a case study where time-lapse minimal-invasive 3D micro-electrical tomography (ERT) is used to monitor rhizosphere eco-hydrological processes in an apple orchard in the Trentino region, Northern Italy. In particular we aimed at gaining a better understanding of the soil-vegetation water exchanges in the shallow critical zone, as part of a coordinated effort towards predicting climate-induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins (EU FP7 CLIMB project). The adopted strategy relied upon the installation of a 3D electrical tomography apparatus consisting of four mini-boreholes carrying 12 electrodes each plus 24 mini-electrodes on the ground surface, arranged in order to image roughly a cubic meter of soil surrounding a single apple tree. The monitoring program was initially tested with repeated measurements over about one year. Subsequently, we performed three controlled irrigation tests under different conditions, in order to evaluate the water redistribution under variable root activities and climatic conditions. Laboratory calibration on soil samples allowed us to translate electrical resistivity variations into moisture content changes, supported also by in-situ TDR measurements. Richards equation modeling was used also to explain the monitoring evidence. The results clearly identified the effect of root water uptake and the corresponding subsoil region where active roots are present, but also marked the need to consider the effects of different water salinity in the water infiltration process. We also gained significant insight about the need to measure quantitatively the plant evapotranspiration in order to close the water balance and separate soil structure effects (primarily, hydraulic conductivity) from water dynamics induced by living plants.

River ecosystem processes: a synthesis of approaches, criteria of use and sensitivity to environmental stressors

River ecosystems are subject to multiple stressors that affect their structure and functioning. Ecosystem structure refers to characteristics such as channel form, water quality or the composition of biological communities, whereas ecosystem functioning refers to processes such as metabolism, organic matter decomposition or secondary production. Structure and functioning respond in contrasting and complementary ways to environmental stressors. Moreover, assessing the response of ecosystem functioning to stressors is critical to understand the effects on the ecosystem services that produce direct benefits to humans. Yet, there is more information on structural than on functional parameters, and despite the many approaches available to measure river ecosystem processes, structural approaches are more widely used, especially in management. One reason for this discrepancy is the lack of synthetic studies analyzing river ecosystem functioning in a way that is useful for both scientists and managers. Here, we present a synthesis of key river ecosystem processes, which provides a description of the main characteristics of each process, including criteria guiding their measurement as well as their respective sensitivity to stressors. We also discuss the current limitations, potential improvements and future steps that the use of functional measures in rivers needs to face.

A continuous coupled hydrological and water resources management model

Human exploitation of water resources is widespread and its impact on hydrological fluxes is expected to increase in the future. Water use interacts in a complex manner with the hydrological system causing severe alterations of the hydrological fluxes with multifaceted feedbacks. Implementing this coupling within hydrological models is essential when dealing with the impact of human activities on water resources at all relevant scales. We contribute to the effort in developing models coupling natural and human systems with a distributed continuous model, named GEOTRANSF. The model allows to quantify, within the same framework, alterations in the natural regime and constraints and limitations to water resources availability. After presenting GEOTRANSF, an example of application to a medium-size Alpine catchment with streamflow modified by hydropower and distributed uses is discussed, followed by the analysis of the effect of suitable water uses scenarios in the same catchment. Novel modeling approach coupling hydrological and human systems.Small water uses are accounted for in an exact manner.Assessment of different scenarios of water resources exploitation within the catchment.

Evaluation of genotoxic potential throughout the upper and middle stretches of Adige river basin

In this study a comprehensive genotoxicological survey throughout the upper and middle stretches of Adige river basin is presented. The study was carried out at 7 sites located along the Adige main course and one the most significant tributaries, the Noce creek, both presenting different levels of pollution pressure. To give an insight into the nature of the genotoxic activity we employed the battery of prokaryotic and eukaryotic assays. Mutagenicity in water samples was evaluated by SOS/umuC test in Salmonella typhimurium TA1535/pSK1002. The level of DNA damage as a biomarker of exposure (comet assay) and biomarker of effect (micronucleus assay) and the level of oxidative stress as well (Fpg - modified comet assay) were studied in blood cells of Salmo cenerinus Nardo, 1847 and Salmo marmoratus Cuvier, 1829. Within the applied bioassays, comet assay showed the highest potential for discriminating the sampling sites which are under lesser extent of pressure (sampling sites 1-Barnes at Bresimo and 4-Noce downstream S. Giustina) from the sites under high pressure (sampling sites 5-Noce at Mezzolombardo and 6/7-Adige upstream and downstream municipality of Trento). Significant correlation between the standard and Fpg - modified comet assay indicated that oxidative stress could be a major contributor to observed DNA damage in collected specimens.