Bryan L. Boulier

Schooling, Search, and Spouse Selection: Testing Economic Theories of Marriage and Household Behavior

The implications of the economic theories of marriage and of household fertility behavior are tested in a framework in which educational investment, marital search, and marital matches are responsive to marriage-market conditions and the personal traits of individual agents, some of which are unobserved by the econometrician. Implications are also derived and tested for the effects of longevity, attractiveness, preferences, and labor- and marriage-market conditions on schooling, marriage age, and spouse choice. The empirical results indicate that inattention to heterogeneity and martial selection leads to a false rejection of the economic theory of marriage but to a false acceptance of the value-of-time fertility hypothesis.

Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation

Abstract Very little attention has been given to predicting outcomes of sporting events. While studies have examined the accuracy of alternative methods of predicting the outcomes of thoroughbred horse races, some obvious predictors of the outcomes of other sporting events have not been examined. In this paper, we evaluate whether rankings (seedings) are good predictors of the actual outcomes in two sports: (1) US collegiate basketball and (2) professional tennis. In this analysis we use statistical probit regressions with the difference in rankings as the predictor of the outcome of games and/or matches. We evaluate both the ex post and ex ante predictions using base rate forecasts and Brier scores. We conclude that the rankings, by themselves, are useful predictors and that the probits improve on this performance.

Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games

Rankings have predictive value for determining the outcomes of basketball games and tennis matches. Rankings, based on power scores, are also available for NFL teams. This paper evaluates power scores as predictors of the outcomes of NFL games for the 1994–2000 seasons. The evaluation involves a comparison of forecasts generated from probit regressions based on power scores published in The New York Times with those of a naive model, the betting market, and the opinions of the sports editor of The New York Times. We conclude that the betting market is the best predictor followed by the probit predictions based on power scores. We analyze the editor’s predictions and find that his predictions were comparable to a bootstrapping model of his forecasts but were inferior to those based on power scores and even worse than naive forecasts.  2001 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market

This study presents three tests of efficiency of the NFL betting market for the years 1994–2000. First, it tests for weak-form informational efficiency of the betting market. Then it examines whether the market incorporates objective information such as power scores and stadium characteristics that might be useful for predicting game outcomes. Finally, it determines whether alternative betting strategies would have yielded a profit. Although there is some indication that differences in the playing surfaces of home and visiting teams were not fully reflected in the betting lines, it is found that there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the market was inefficient over the period examined.

Income redistribution and fertility decline: a skeptical view.

This paper reviews the microeconomic and macroeconomic evidence offered by Repetto and others in support of the hypothesis that income redistribution decreases fertility and concludes that there is no support for this proposition. Proponents of this approach argue that since fertility tends to be negatively associated with income in developing countries and in a nonlinear way a small increase in the income of a poor couple reduces fertility more than a small increase in the income of a rich couple. The nature of fertility responses to changes in exogenous variables can only be determined empirically. Repettos statistical analysis of household data from Puerto Rico and Korea in support of the theory that income redistribution reduces fertility contains important theoretical and econometric errors. 1st total household income cannot be considered an exogenous variable since the wifes hours of work and earnings are determined simultaneously with decisions about fertility. 2nd use of a per capita income measure may introduce a spurious nonlinearity into the income-fertility association. To explore the fertility-income distribution relationship using a more satisfactory specification of the fertility equation the author analyzed the socioeconomic determinants of the number of children ever born and the number of living children in a sample of women drawn from the 1973 Philippines National Demographic Survey. This analysis suggested that marginal transfers of income from the rich to the poor actually increase fertility although the increase is small. Since levels and trends in fertility and mortality and in fertility and mortality differentials by socioeconomic class can affect income distribution over time it is not possible to conclude from a simple positive correlation between fertility and income inequality among nations that reductions in income inequality reduce fertility. In addition it is difficult to determine whether the statistical association between income distribution and fertility among nations is a causal association or a spurious correlation reflecting underlying and unmeasured social and economic factors.

AGE, BIOLOGICAL FACTORS, AND SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY: A NEW MEASURE OF CUMULATIVE FERTILITY FOR USE IN THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF FAMILY SIZE

To influence the number of children ever born to a woman, socioeconomic variables must operate through behavioral and biological mechanisms such as the age at marriage, the level of fertility in the absence of deliberate fertility control, and the level of control exerted to reduce fertility within marriage. In this paper, we propose a new measure of cumulative fertility which is standardized for the age-fecundity relationship and for exposure to the risk of conception associated with duration of marriage. A simple model of fertility behavior which incorporates some of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic factors may affect fertility is developed and applied to data from the United States to demonstrate the properties of alternative measures of family size. The results indicate that use of the new measure allows more precise estimates of socioeconomic fertility relationships than would be obtained with children ever born or by sample stratification.

The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation

Abstract This paper evaluates the monthly term spread as a predictor of the growth rates of the U.S. Industrial Production Index and whether or not a month is classified as recessionary using techniques previously applied to quarterly data.

An Econometric Investigation of Easterlin's ‘Synthesis Framework’: The Philippines and the United States

In this paper we estimate a fertility model based on Easterlins synthesis framework. The model assumes that not all couples are able to achieve their desired number of living children because of supply constraints and that, for other couples, the number of living children may exceed desired fertility, depending upon child mortality, the level of fertility in the absence of control, and the degree of contraceptive regulation practised. Estimates of the model for samples of women with completed fertility taken from the Philippines (1973) and the United States (1965) indicated that a higher proportion of Filipino women than women in the U.S. were unable to achieve desired fertility because of supply constraints, that levels of fertility control of Filipino women not supply-constrained were lower, and that excess fertility of Filipino women was much higher. Demand-for-children equations based on the constraints model were quite different from those not taking into account the possibility that some women were...

The term spread as a cyclical indicator: a forecasting evaluation

This paper questions whether the spread between long and short-term interests rates is a good cyclical indicator of US economic activity. Probit regressions using the term spread as an independent variable are used to forecast the probability of a recession and the forecasts are evaluated. Using alternative probability thresholds, the turns that were predicted, their timing and the number of recessions that were not forecast were identified and the tradeoff between the number of missed and false predictions is examined. A quantitative measure of the forecast errors is also used to compare the accuracy of probit forecasts with those of two naive standards. Finally, the term spread is evaluated purely as an indicator. It is concluded that this series, by itself, is not a reliable predictor of economic activity.

On the theory and measurement of the determinants of mortality

This article develops a model of mortality that shows how biological, demographic, and environmental factors interact to affect an individual’s probability of dying. To illustrate the usefulness of the model, we derive from it (as special cases) the Brass system of model life tables and the proportional-hazard mortality model and apply a logit version of the model to analyze the determinants of child mortality in Sri Lanka.