Bryan T. Grenfell

Inverse density dependence and the Allee effect

The Allee effect describes a scenario in which populations at low numbers are affected by a positive relationship between population growth rate and density, which increases their likelihood of extinction. The importance of this dynamic process in ecology has been under-appreciated and recent evidence now suggests that it might have an impact on the population dynamics of many plant and animal species. Studies of the causal mechanisms generating Allee effects in small populations could provide a key to understanding their dynamics.

Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics.

Spatio-temporal travelling waves are striking manifestations of predator–prey and host–parasite dynamics. However, few systems are well enough documented both to detect repeated waves and to explain their interaction with spatio-temporal variations in population structure and demography. Here, we demonstrate recurrent epidemic travelling waves in an exhaustive spatio-temporal data set for measles in England and Wales. We use wavelet phase analysis, which allows for dynamical non-stationarity—a complication in interpreting spatio-temporal patterns in these and many other ecological time series. In the pre-vaccination era, conspicuous hierarchical waves of infection moved regionally from large cities to small towns; the introduction of measles vaccination restricted but did not eliminate this hierarchical contagion. A mechanistic stochastic model suggests a dynamical explanation for the waves—spread via infective ‘sparks’ from large ‘core’ cities to smaller ‘satellite’ towns. Thus, the spatial hierarchy of host population structure is a prerequisite for these infection waves.

Ecology of infectious diseases in natural populations

List of participants Introduction Part I. Broad Patterns and Processes: 1. Impact of infectious diseases on wild animal populations: a review F. M. D. Gulland 2. Microparasites: observed patterns A. P. Dobson and P. J. Hudson 3. Mathematical models for microparasites of wildlife J. A. P. Heesterbeek and M. G. Roberts 4. Microparasite group report C. Dye 5. Macroparasites: observed patterns P. J. Hudson and A. P. Dobson 6. Mathematical models for macroparasites of wildlife M. G. Roberts, G. Smith and B. T. Grenfell 7. Macroparasite group report G. Smith 8. Critical evaluation of wildlife disease models N. D. Barlow Part II. Insects and Plants: 9. Nonlinearities in the dynamics of indirectly-transmitted infections (or, does having a vector make a difference?) C. Dye and B. G. Williams 10. Model frameworks for plant-pathogen interactions J. Swinton and R. M. Anderson 11. The dynamics of insect-pathogen interactions C. J. Briggs, R. S. Hails, N. D. Barlow and H. C. J. Godfray Part III. Impact of Ecological and Genetic Heterogeneity: 12. Environmental influences on host immunity S. Lloyd 13. Modelling the immuno-epidemiology of macroparasites in wildlife host populations B. T. Grenfell, K. Dietz and M. G. Roberts 14. Spatial dynamics of parasitism D. Mollinson and S. A. Levin 15. Spatial dynamics group report B. M. Bolker 16. Genetic diversity in host-parasite interactions C. M. Lively and V. Apanius 17. Genetics and evolution of infectious diseases in natural populations group report A. P. Read 18. Beyond host-pathogen dynamics M. Begon and R. G. Bowers 19. Glossary C. Watt, A. P. Dobson and B. T. Grenfell.

Global antibiotic consumption 2000 to 2010: an analysis of national pharmaceutical sales data

BACKGROUND Antibiotic drug consumption is a major driver of antibiotic resistance. Variations in antibiotic resistance across countries are attributable, in part, to different volumes and patterns for antibiotic consumption. We aimed to assess variations in consumption to assist monitoring of the rise of resistance and development of rational-use policies and to provide a baseline for future assessment. METHODS With use of sales data for retail and hospital pharmacies from the IMS Health MIDAS database, we reviewed trends for consumption of standard units of antibiotics between 2000 and 2010 for 71 countries. We used compound annual growth rates to assess temporal differences in consumption for each country and Fourier series and regression methods to assess seasonal differences in consumption in 63 of the countries. FINDINGS Between 2000 and 2010, consumption of antibiotic drugs increased by 36% (from 54 083 964 813 standard units to 73 620 748 816 standard units). Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa accounted for 76% of this increase. In most countries, antibiotic consumption varied significantly with season. There was increased consumption of carbapenems (45%) and polymixins (13%), two last-resort classes of antibiotic drugs. INTERPRETATION The rise of antibiotic consumption and the increase in use of last-resort antibiotic drugs raises serious concerns for public health. Appropriate use of antibiotics in developing countries should be encouraged. However, to prevent a striking rise in resistance in low-income and middle-income countries with large populations and to preserve antibiotic efficacy worldwide, programmes that promote rational use through coordinated efforts by the international community should be a priority. FUNDING US Department of Homeland Security, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US National Institutes of Health, Princeton Grand Challenges Program.

Synchrony, Waves, and Spatial Hierarchies in the Spread of Influenza

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.

Re-assessing the global prevalence and distribution of lymphatic filariasis.

This paper estimates the global burden of lymphatic filariasis based on a review of the published literature on infection and disease surveys. A method for aggregating and projecting prevalence data from individual studies to national, regional and global levels, which also facilitates the estimation of gender and age-specific burdens, is presented. The method weights in favour of the larger, and hence presumbably more reliable, studies and relies on estimated empirical relationships between gender, age, infection and disease in order to correct studies with incomplete data. The results presented here suggest that although the overall prevalence of filariasis cases is 2.0% globally (approximately totalling 119 million cases), the disease continues to be of considerable local importance, particularly in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Estimates by age and gender clearly show that, unlike other helminth infections, filariasis is mainly a disease of the adult and older age-classes and appears to be more prevalent in males. This work suggests that the derivation of more accurate estimates of the burden of filariasis will require a better understanding of both the epidemiology and the spatial aspects of infection and disease. It also suggests that filariasis is preventable based on a geographically targeted strategy for control.

Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.

Noise and determinism in synchronized sheep dynamics

A major debate in ecology concerns the relative importance of intrinsic factors and extrinsic environmental variations in determining population size fluctuations. Spatial correlation of fluctuations in different populations caused by synchronous environmental shocks,, is a powerful tool for quantifying the impact of environmental variations on population dynamics,. However, interpretation of synchrony is often complicated by migration between populations,. Here we address this issue by using time series from sheep populations on two islands in the St Kilda archipelago. Fluctuations in the sizes of the two populations are remarkably synchronized over a 40-year period. A nonlinear time-series model shows that a high and frequent degree of environmental correlation is required to achieve this level of synchrony. The model indicates that if there were less environmental correlation, population dynamics would be much less synchronous than is observed. This is because of a threshold effect that is dependent on population size; the threshold magnifies random differences between populations. A refined model showsthat part of the required environmental synchronicity can be accounted for by large-scale weather variations. These results underline the importance of understanding the interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic influences on population dynamics.

Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases.

The metapopulation concept provides a very powerful tool for analysing the persistence of spatially-disaggregated populations, in terms of a balance between local extinction and colonization. Exactly the same approach has been developed by epidemiologists, in order to understand patterns of diseases persistence. There is great scope for further cross-fertilization between areas. Recent work on the spatitemporal dynamics of measles illustrates that the large datasets and rich modelling literature on many infectious diseases offer great potential for developing and testing ideas about metapopulations.

Host densities as determinants of abundance in parasite communities

Several epidemiological models predict a positive relationship between host population density and abundance of directly transmitted macroparasites. Here, we generalize these, and test the prediction by a comparative study. We used data on communities of gastrointestinal strongylid nematodes from 19 mammalian species, representing examination of 6670 individual hosts. We studied both the average abundance of all strongylid nematodes within a host species, and the two components of abundance, prevalence and intensity. The effects of host body weight, diet, fecundity and age at maturity and parasite body size were controlled for directly, and the phylogenetically independent contrast method was used to control for confounding factors more generally. Host population density and average parasite abundance were strongly positively correlated within mammalian taxa, and across all species when the effects of host body weight were controlled for. Controlling for other variables did not change this. Even when looking at single parasite species occurring in several host species, abundance was highest in the host species with the highest population density. Prevalence and intensity showed similar patterns. These patterns provide the first macroecological evidence consistent with the prediction that transmission rates depend on host population density in natural parasite communities.