Bryony A. Jones

Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change

A systematic review was conducted by a multidisciplinary team to analyze qualitatively best available scientific evidence on the effect of agricultural intensification and environmental changes on the risk of zoonoses for which there are epidemiological interactions between wildlife and livestock. The study found several examples in which agricultural intensification and/or environmental change were associated with an increased risk of zoonotic disease emergence, driven by the impact of an expanding human population and changing human behavior on the environment. We conclude that the rate of future zoonotic disease emergence or reemergence will be closely linked to the evolution of the agriculture–environment nexus. However, available research inadequately addresses the complexity and interrelatedness of environmental, biological, economic, and social dimensions of zoonotic pathogen emergence, which significantly limits our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to zoonotic disease emergence.

Rinderpest Eradication: Appropriate Technology and Social Innovations

Killer Eradication Rinderpest is the second disease to be eradicated globally after smallpox. Mariner et al. (p. 1309) review the technical and social challenges that were overcome during the course of eradication. Key achievements were the development of a thermostable vaccine, the recruitment of the pastoralists themselves for training and administration of vaccine, and complete vaccination coverage, despite occasionally hazardous environmental and political conditions. Although these achievements offer important lessons for future human and animal health programs, institutional memories are surprisingly short-lived, and it is important to document these lessons for the next eradication campaign. Rinderpest is only the second infectious disease to have been globally eradicated. In the final stages of eradication, the virus was entrenched in pastoral areas of the Greater Horn of Africa, a region with weak governance, poor security, and little infrastructure that presented profound challenges to conventional control methods. Although the eradication process was a development activity rather than scientific research, its success owed much to several seminal research efforts in vaccine development and epidemiology and showed what scientific decision-making and management could accomplish with limited resources. The keys to success were the development of a thermostable vaccine and the application of participatory epidemiological techniques that allowed veterinary personnel to interact at a grassroots level with cattle herders to more effectively target control measures.

Introduction of African Swine Fever into the European Union through Illegal Importation of Pork and Pork Products

Transboundary animal diseases can have very severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions into the European Union suggests that initial outbreaks were often initiated by illegal importation of meat and derived products. The European Union would benefit from decision-support tools to evaluate the risk of disease introduction caused by illegal imports in order to inform its surveillance strategy. However, due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products, very few studies of this type have been conducted. Using African swine fever as an example, this work presents a novel risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of meat and products. It uses a semi-quantitative approach based on factors that likely influence the likelihood of release of contaminated smuggled meat and products, and subsequent exposure of the susceptible population. The results suggest that the European Union is at non-negligible risk of African swine fever introduction through illegal importation of pork and products. On a relative risk scale with six categories from negligible to very high, five European Union countries were estimated at high (France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom) or moderate (Spain) risk of African swine fever release, five countries were at high risk of exposure if African swine fever were released (France, Italy, Poland, Romania and Spain) and ten countries had a moderate exposure risk (Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Sweden and United Kingdom). The approach presented here and results obtained for African swine fever provide a basis for the enhancement of risk-based surveillance systems and disease prevention programmes in the European Union.

Calf-Level Factors Associated with Bovine Neonatal Pancytopenia – A Multi-Country Case-Control Study

Bovine neonatal pancytopenia (BNP), a high fatality condition causing haemorrhages in calves aged less than 4 weeks, was first reported in 2007 in Germany and subsequently observed at low incidence in other European countries and New Zealand. A multi-country matched case-control study was conducted in 2011 to identify calf-level risk factors for BNP. 405 BNP cases were recruited from 330 farms in Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands by laboratory confirmation of farmer-reported cases. Up to four calves of similar age from the same farm were selected as controls (1154 calves). Risk factor data were collected by questionnaire. Multivariable modelling using conditional logistic regression indicated that PregSure®BVD (PregSure, Pfizer Animal Health) vaccination of the dam was strongly associated with BNP cases (adjusted matched Odds Ratio - amOR 17.8 first lactation dams; 95% confidence interval – ci 2.4, 134.4; p = 0.005), and second or more lactation PregSure-vaccinated dams were more likely to have a case than first lactation vaccinated dams (amOR 2.2 second lactation; ci 1.1, 4.3; p = 0.024; amOR 5.3 third or more lactation; ci 2.9, 9.8; p = <0.001). Feeding colostrum from other cows was strongly associated with BNP if the dam was not PregSure-vaccinated (amOR 30.5; ci 2.1, 440.5; p = 0.012), but the effect was less if the dam was PregSure-vaccinated (amOR 2.1; ci 1.1, 4.0; p = 0.024). Feeding exclusively dam’s milk was a higher risk than other types of milk (amOR 3.4; ci 1.6, 7.5; p = 0.002). The population attributable fractions were 0.84 (ci 0.68, 0.92) for PregSure vaccination, 0.13 (ci 0.06, 0.19) for feeding other cows’ colostrum, and 0.15 (ci 0.08, 0.22) for feeding dam’s milk. No other calf-level factors were identified, suggesting that there are other important factors that are outside the scope of this study, such as genetics, which explain why BNP develops in some PregSure-colostrum-exposed calves but not in others.

Development and testing of a field diagnostic assay for peste des petits ruminants virus.

We have developed an immunochromatographic test for the diagnosis of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) under field conditions. The diagnostic assay has been tested in the laboratory and also under field conditions in Ivory Coast, Pakistan, Ethiopia and Uganda. The test is carried out on a superficial swab sample (ocular or nasal) and showed a sensitivity of 84% relative to PCR. The specificity was 95% over all nasal and ocular samples. The test detected as little as 103 TCID50 (50% tissue culture infectious doses) of cell culture-grown virus, and detected virus isolates representing all four known genetic lineages of peste des petits ruminants virus. Virus could be detected in swabs from animals as early as 4 days post-infection, at a time when clinical signs were minimal. Feedback from field trials was uniformly positive, suggesting that this diagnostic tool may be useful for current efforts to control the spread of PPR.

Rinderpest eradicated; what next?

THIS week saw a landmark in the history of the veterinary profession and, more specifically, its management of disease threats to food security. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced on June 28, 2011 that its member countries had passed a resolution declaring rinderpest to have been eradicated globally, building on an announcement in May that the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) at its General Session had passed a resolution to the effect that all countries in the world had been formally accredited as free from rinderpest. These events mark the fact that the virus is no longer present in any of its natural hosts on this planet. No longer is it a cause of disease or a constraint to international trade. What is not generally appreciated is that the eradication of rinderpest has yielded benefits that surpass virtually every other development programme in agriculture, and will continue to do so into the future. For example, a preliminary study in Chad shows that over the period 1963 to 2002, each dollar spent on rinderpest eradication led to a benefit …

The economic impact of eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A benefit-cost analysis

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US

The Opportunity To Eradicate Peste des Petits Ruminants

76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US

Experiences in Participatory Surveillance and Community-based Reporting Systems for H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: A Case Study Approach

74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.