Burç Ülengin

A multidimensional approach to urban quality of life: The case of Istanbul

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to model the priorities, expectations and needs of the inhabitants of Istanbul, a city with a population of about 10 million, from a multidimensional perspective. In this way, effective allocation of the city’s resources can be achieved to improve the quality of life (QOL) for such a large number of people, which is the primary concern of the local authorities as well as the urban planners. For this reason, a survey is conducted in Istanbul so that the priorities of the inhabitants are revealed and the city where they would like to live is portrayed. The data obtained are used as input for hierarchical conjoint analysis. The survey is primarily based on the evaluation of hypothetical, experimentally designed city profiles for four different constructs on a 0–10 rating scale. The relative importance of the constructs is estimated through the eigenvector approach. The research is an interdisciplinary group work acting as a bridge between urban planning and multiattribute decision making; thus judgements of experts from different disciplines are used in every stage of the study.

A note on the effect of brand image on sales

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the sales volume of a firm and its brand image. Consumers’ self‐perception and perception of brand image, with respect to congruency models, have a strong influence on their behavior in the marketplace. Therefore it is expected that the fluctuations (the authors use fluctuation and variation interchangeably) in image attributes will explain the fluctuations in sales figures. In order to test this hypothesis, consecutive surveys were carried out, on a monthly basis to collect image data. Factor analysis was performed on the image attributes over time and three main image factors were attained. To determine the net effect of image attributes on sales, multiple regression analysis was performed, using the time series data, and all three image factors were found to be significant in the model.

Using hierarchical information integration to examine customer preferences in banking

The process of choosing a bank has been studied for several decades through different approaches. This paper presents a bank choice analysis designed to assess the usefulness of the hierarchical information integration method which involves measuring individual preferences. The substantive conclusions of this study are that, on average, respondents prefer the extended loyalty programs, the continuous information flow from the bank, the off‐site ATMs, the maximum five‐minutes waiting time in the branches and a simple application for all the accounts the bank offers. In terms of higher‐order decision constructs, delivery channels and customer relations have the strongest influence on the respondents’ preferences. The results suggest that hierarchical information integration may be a potentially useful method for bank managers to study complex decision‐making problems such as bank choice.

Using neural networks and cognitive mapping in scenario analysis: The case of Turkey's inflation dynamics

Abstract This paper has two objectives. First of all, it proposes a dynamic scenario analysis approach, which is a revised version of extended anomaly relaxation (EFAR) model [J. Operat. Res. Soc. 48 (1997) 793]; hereafter referred to as REFAR. REFAR aims to eliminate the basic drawbacks of EFAR and improve its efficiency. The basic steps of REFAR are presented and the improvement with respect to the original version realized in each step is emphasized. The second objective of the study is to estimate the future of inflation in Turkey through REFAR using data corresponding to the period January 1994–December 1998. The main reasons for selecting REFAR-based inflation estimation instead of adopting traditional forecasting techniques are explained. The basic scenarios finally reached through REFAR, the transition among each key scenario as well as among the scenarios grouped under each key scenario are explained in detail and the validity of the REFAR-based inflation estimation model is tested through several case studies.

Forecasting foreign exchange rates: A comparative evaluation of AHP

In the first part of this paper the US Dollar/DM exchange rates for two different time periods are forecast based on the analytical hierarchy process using the judgements of five experts. Then, the same forecasting activity is repeated via classical approaches namely Regression Analysis, ARIMA Modelling, VAR, Restricted VAR (RVAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR). Finally, the forecasting accuracy of the methods are compared and the results are evaluated.

A power-based measurement approach to specify macroeconomic competitiveness of countries

Abstract The World Economic Forum (Geneva), and the Institute for Management Development (Lausanne) have jointly created, and continue to maintain, a competitiveness rating and ranking for selected countries—the World Competitiveness Index (WCI). The WCI depends on a number of qualitative factors, which, in turn depend on the perception of executives. This paper offers a more robust and objective way of evaluating the competitiveness of countries while replicating the WCI results in a statistically significant manner. The hypothesis is that the long-term competitiveness of a country can be estimated using objective attributes. After validation of results based on this hypothesis versus those of the WCI, the paper explains the relative competitive level of the countries analyzed by using explanatory variables. A sensitivity analysis is used to show how movements, by design or by happenstance, in levels of some of the attributes/indicators may affect a countrys overall competitiveness. The paper suggests some important guidelines for policy formulation at the national level in both developed and developing countries as well as in multinational organizations. These can be used for evaluating changes in a given countrys competitive status between re-evaluations of the WCI. They can also be used for estimating the competitiveness of countries which have not yet been rated by WCI, or which might not have existed before being considered.

A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Abstract This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM’s) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.

Analysis of customer lifetime value and marketing expenditure decisions through a Markovian-based model

The general aim of this study is to provide a guide to the future marketing decisions of a firm, using a model to predict customer lifetime values. The proposed framework aims to eliminate the limitations and drawbacks of the majority of models encountered in the literature through a simple and industry-specific model with easily measurable and objective indicators. In addition, this model predicts the potential value of the current customers rather than measuring the current value, which has generally been used in the majority of previous studies. This study contributes to the literature by helping to make future marketing decisions via Markov decision processes for a company that offers several types of products. Another contribution is that the states for Markov decision processes are also generated using the predicted customer lifetime values where the prediction is realized by a regression-based model. Finally, a real world application of the proposed model is provided in the banking sector to show the empirical validity of the model. Therefore, we believe that the proposed framework and the developed model can guide both practitioners and researchers.

Impacts of capital inflows on aggregate spending categories: the case of Turkey

This paper discusses the impact of foreign savings on aggregate spending categories in Turkey. Using the vector autoregressive (VAR) models the major finding is that foreign savings has an increasing effect on consumption. The increase of investment arises from the accelerator effect of consumption, which results in an upward trend in investment in non-tradable sectors. Concluding that the policy of relying on foreign savings, to obtain long-term increases in tradable sector investment and competitiveness is ill-judged.

AGGREGATE IMPORTS AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS IN TURKEY: A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT

Despite its recent growth performance, the Turkish economy has been experiencing current account imbalances, and has so far been able to continue these imbalances without jeopardizing economic growth. However, recent uncertainties in the world economy have urged policy makers to control these imbalances and to take actions accordingly in the short-run. The literature postulates that expenditure reduction and expenditure switching policies are two conventional measures to implement in an economy suffering from current account deficits. In this regard, the aim of the paper is to examine the role of expenditure components in import demand, which is among one of the most crucial elements of current account items. The empirical results indicate that demand for imports has a very sluggish adjustment process in response to any policy shocks, and consumption and export expenditure together with the relative prices are the important factors that seem to influence this adjustment process. The high dependence of domestic production on foreign intermediate goods and the reluctance of the Turkish entrepreneurs for import substitution (mainly due to an unfavorable business climate) could be regarded as the reason for this sluggish adjustment process of import demand. This research accordingly shows that these conventional measures (such as those that are included by expenditure reduction and expenditure switching policies) might be necessary but not sufficient, and it would require more structural and long-run policy actions to deal with recent current account difficulties in the Turkish case. The empirical findings also indicate that the import requirement of exports is very high. This, together with high import dependency of domestic production, calls for structural and long-run policy actions that would help to increase the value added to Turkish exports.Despite its recent growth performance, the Turkish economy has been experiencing current account imbalances, and has so far been able to continue these imbalances without jeopardizing economic growth. However, recent uncertainties in the world economy have urged policy makers to control these imbalances and to take actions accordingly in the short-run. The literature postulates that expenditure reduction and expenditure switching policies are two conventional measures to implement in an economy suffering from current account deficits. In this regard, the aim of the paper is to examine the role of expenditure components in import demand, which is among one of the most crucial elements of current account items. The empirical results indicate that demand for imports has a very sluggish adjustment process in response to any policy shocks, and consumption and export expenditure together with the relative prices are the important factors that seem to influence this adjustment process. The high dependence of domestic production on foreign intermediate goods and the reluctance of the Turkish entrepreneurs for import substitution (mainly due to an unfavorable business climate) could be regarded as the reason for this sluggish adjustment process of import demand. This research accordingly shows that these conventional measures (such as those that are included by expenditure reduction and expenditure switching policies) might be necessary but not sufficient, and it would require more structural and long-run policy actions to deal with recent current account difficulties in the Turkish case. The empirical findings also indicate that the import requirement of exports is very high. This, together with high import dependency of domestic production, calls for structural and long-run policy actions that would help to increase the value added to Turkish exports.