Burton H. Singer

A METHOD FOR MINIMIZING THE IMPACT OF DISTRIBUTIONAL ASSUMPTIONS IN ECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR DURATION DATA

Conventional analyses of single spell duration models control for unobservables using a random effect estimator with the distribution of unobservables selected by ad hoc criteria. Both theoretical and empirical examples indicate that estimates of structural parameters obtained from conventional procedures are very sensitive to the choice of mixing distribution. Conventional procedures overparameterize duration models. We develop a consistent nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for the distribution of unobservables and a computational strategy for implementing it. For a sample of unemployed workers our estimator produces estimates in concordance with standard search theory while conventional estimators do not. ECONOMIC THEORIES of search unemployment (Lippman and McCall [34]; Flinn and Heckman [14]), job turnover (Jovanovic [25]), mortality (Harris [17]), labor supply (Heckman and Willis [23]) and marital instability (Becker [3]) produce structural distributions for durations of occupancy of states. These theories generate qualitative predictions about the effects of changes in parameters on these structural distributions, and occasionally predict their functional forms.2 In order to test economic theories about durations and recover structural parameters, it is necessary to account for population variation in observed and unobserved variables unless it is assumed a priori that individuals are homogeneous.3 In every microeconomic study in which the hypothesis of heterogeneity is subject to test, it is not rejected. Temporally persistent unobserved components are an empirically important fact of life in microeconomic data (Heckman [19]). Since the appearance of papers by Silcock [39] and Blumen, Kogan, and McCarthy [5], social scientists have been aware that failure to adequately control for population heterogeneity can produce severe bias in structural estimates of duration models. Serious empirical analysts attempt to control for these unob

Allostatic load as a marker of cumulative biological risk: MacArthur studies of successful aging

Allostatic load (AL) has been proposed as a new conceptualization of cumulative biological burden exacted on the body through attempts to adapt to lifes demands. Using a multisystem summary measure of AL, we evaluated its capacity to predict four categories of health outcomes, 7 years after a baseline survey of 1,189 men and women age 70–79. Higher baseline AL scores were associated with significantly increased risk for 7-year mortality as well as declines in cognitive and physical functioning and were marginally associated with incident cardiovascular disease events, independent of standard socio-demographic characteristics and baseline health status. The summary AL measure was based on 10 parameters of biological functioning, four of which are primary mediators in the cascade from perceived challenges to downstream health outcomes. Six of the components are secondary mediators reflecting primarily components of the metabolic syndrome (syndrome X). AL was a better predictor of mortality and decline in physical functioning than either the syndrome X or primary mediator components alone. The findings support the concept of AL as a measure of cumulative biological burden.

Psychological Well-Being: Meaning, Measurement, and Implications for Psychotherapy Research

A model of positive psychological functioning that emerges from diverse domains of theory and philosophy is presented. Six key dimensions of wellness are defined, and empirical research summarizing their empirical translation and sociodemographic correlates is presented. Variations in well-being are explored via studies of discrete life events and enduring human experiences. Life histories of the psychologically vulnerable and resilient, defined via the cross-classification of depression and well-being, are summarized. Implications of the focus on positive functioning for research on psychotherapy, quality of life, and mind/body linkages are reviewed.

Recursive partitioning in the health sciences

Introduction.- A Practical Guide to the Tree Construction.- Logistic Regression.- Classification Trees for a Binary Response.- Risk Factors Analysis Using Tree-based Stratification.- Analysis of Censored Data: Examples.- Analysis of Censored Data: Concepts and Classical Methods.- Analysis of Censored Data: Survival Trees.- Continuous Response: Regression Trees and Adaptive Splines.- Longitudinal Data.- Multiple Discrete Outcomes.

Social relationships, gender, and allostatic load across two age cohorts

Objective This article addresses the question of biological pathways through which social integration and support may affect morbidity and mortality risks. A new concept of cumulative biological risk, allostatic load, is used to test the hypothesis that social experiences affect a range of biological systems. Data from two community-based cohorts are examined to evaluate the consistency of findings across two different age groups. Methods One cohort included older adults aged 70 to 79 years (N = 765); the other cohort included persons aged 58 to 59 years (N = 106). Allostatic load was assessed using identical protocols in the two cohorts. Measures of social experience were similar but not identical, reflecting levels of social integration and support for the older cohort vs. childhood and adult experiences of loving/caring relationships with parents and spouse for the younger cohort. Gender-specific analyses were examined to evaluate possible gender differences in patterns of association. Results In the younger cohort, positive cumulative relationship experiences were associated with lower allostatic load for men and women. In the older cohort, men who were more socially integrated and those reporting more frequent emotional support from others had lower allostatic load scores; similar but nonsignificant associations were seen for women. Conclusions Evidence from two cohorts provides support for the hypothesis that positive social experiences are associated with lower allostatic load. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that social experiences affect a range of biological systems, resulting in cumulative differences in risks that in turn may affect a range of health outcomes.

Making a Life Worth Living Neural Correlates of Well-Being

Despite the vast literature that has implicated asymmetric activation of the prefrontal cortex in approach-withdrawal motivation and emotion, no published reports have directly explored the neural correlates of well-being. Eighty-four right-handed adults (ages 57–60) completed self-report measures of eudaimonic well-being, hedonic well-being, and positive affect prior to resting electroencephalography. As hypothesized, greater left than right superior frontal activation was associated with higher levels of both forms of well-being. Hemisphere-specific analyses documented the importance of goal-directed approach tendencies beyond those captured by approach-related positive affect for eudaimonic but not for hedonic well-being. Appropriately engaging sources of appetitive motivation, characteristic of higher left than right baseline levels of prefrontal activation, may encourage the experience of well-being.

Allostatic load as a predictor of functional decline: MacArthur studies of successful aging

Allostatic load has been proposed as a cumulative measure of dysregulation across multiple physiological systems, and has been postulated to impact health risks. In the allostatic load model, increased risk is hypothesized to result not only from large and clinically significant dysregulation in individual systems, but also from more modest dysregulation, if present in multiple systems. Our objective was to construct an allostatic load score by optimally combining several physiologic measurements, and to examine its association with future functional decline. We analyzed data from a 7-year longitudinal study of a community-based cohort, whose age at baseline was between 70 and 79 years. Canonical correlation analysis was used to study the association of 10 biological measurements representing allostatic load with declines in scores on five tests each of physical and cognitive function over two follow-up periods: 1998-1991 and 1991-1995. We used bootstrapping to evaluate the stability of the canonical correlation and canonical weights. The canonical correlation between allostatic load and the 20 decline scores was 0.43 (P =.03) and the [25th, 75th] percentile interval of its distribution over 200 bootstrapped subsamples of the cohort was [0.48, 0.53]. These findings were not substantially affected by adjusting for covariates and cardiovascular disease. We conclude that a summary measure of physiologic dysregulation, such as allostatic load, is an independent predictor of functional decline in elderly men and women.

Psychological Well-Being and Ill-Being: Do They Have Distinct or Mirrored Biological Correlates?

Background: Increasingly, researchers attend to both positive and negative aspects of mental health. Such distinctions call for clarification of whether psychological well-being and ill-being comprise opposite ends of a bipolar continuum, or are best construed as separate, independent dimensions of mental health. Biology can help resolve this query – bipolarity predicts ‘mirrored’ biological correlates (i.e. well-being and ill-being correlate similarly with biomarkers, but show opposite directional signs), whereas independence predicts ‘distinct’ biological correlates (i.e. well-being and ill-being have different biological signatures). Methods: Multiple aspects of psychological well-being (eudaimonic, hedonic) and ill-being (depression, anxiety, anger) were assessed in a sample of aging women (n = 135, mean age = 74) on whom diverse neuroendocrine (salivary cortisol, epinephrine, norepinephrine, DHEA-S) and cardiovascular factors (weight, waist-hip ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, total/HDL cholesterol, glycosylated hemoglobin) were also measured. Results: Measures of psychological well-being and ill-being were significantly linked with numerous biomarkers, with some associations being more strongly evident for respondents aged 75+. Outcomes for seven biomarkers supported the distinct hypothesis, while findings for only two biomarkers supported the mirrored hypothesis. Conclusion: This research adds to the growing literature on how psychological well-being and mental maladjustment are instantiated in biology. Population-based inquiries and challenge studies constitute important future directions.

Prognosis in Nontraumatic Coma

We conducted serial neurologic examinations on 500 patients in nontraumatic coma to identify factors predicting recovery. Overall, 81 patients (16%) led an independent life at some point within the first year; the remainder either died without recovery from coma (61%), never improved beyond the vegetative state (12%), or regained consciousness but remained dependent on others for daily activities (11%). Functional recovery did not depend on age but was to some degree related to the cause of coma (subarachnoid hemorrhage and other cerebrovascular disease having the worst recovery; hypoxia-ischemia, intermediate; and hepatic and miscellaneous causes, best) and especially to early clinical signs of brain dysfunction. Even within hours of the onset of coma, only one of 120 patients lacking two of corneal, pupillary, and oculovestibular responses ever regained independent function. The study identifies clinical features of comatose patients that appear within the first week and that are important for predicting recovery and designing future therapeutic trials.

Interpersonal Flourishing: A Positive Health Agenda for the New Millennium

Quality ties to others are universally endorsed as central to optimal living. Social scientists have extensively studied the relational world, but in somewhat separate literatures (e.g., attachment, close relationships, marital and family ties, social support). Studies of intimacy and close connection are infrequently connected to health, whereas studies of health and social support rarely intersect with literatures on relational flourishing. Efforts to probe underlying physiological processes have been disproportionately concerned with the negative (e.g., adverse effects of relational conflict). A worthy goal for the new millennium is promoting greater cross talk between these realms via a focus on the positive health implications of interpersonal flourishing. Vital venues for the future include mapping the emotional configurations of quality social relationships and elaborating their physiological substrates.