C. David L. Orme

PanTHERIA: a species-level database of life history, ecology, and geography of extant and recently extinct mammals

Analyses of life-history, ecological, and geographic trait differences among species, their causes, correlates, and likely consequences are increasingly important for understanding and conserving biodiversity in the face of rapid global change. Assembling multispecies trait data from diverse literature sources into a single comprehensive data set requires detailed consideration of methods to reliably compile data for particular species, and to derive single estimates from multiple sources based on different techniques and definitions. Here we describe PanTHERIA, a species-level data set compiled for analysis of life history, ecology, and geography of all known extant and recently extinct mammals. PanTHERIA is derived from a database capable of holding multiple geo-referenced values for variables within a species containing 100 740 lines of biological data for extant and recently extinct mammalian species, collected over a period of three years by 20 individuals. PanTHERIA also includes spatial databases o...

Global distribution and conservation of rare and threatened vertebrates

Global conservation strategies commonly assume that different taxonomic groups show congruent geographical patterns of diversity, and that the distribution of extinction-prone species in one group can therefore act as a surrogate for vulnerable species in other groups when conservation decisions are being made. The validity of these assumptions remains unclear, however, because previous tests have been limited in both geographical and taxonomic extent. Here we use a database on the global distribution of 19,349 living bird, mammal and amphibian species to show that, although the distribution of overall species richness is very similar among these groups, congruence in the distribution of rare and threatened species is markedly lower. Congruence is especially low among the very rarest species. Cross-taxon congruence is also highly scale dependent, being particularly low at the finer spatial resolutions relevant to real protected areas. ‘Hotspots’ of rarity and threat are therefore largely non-overlapping across groups, as are areas chosen to maximize species complementarity. Overall, our results indicate that ‘silver-bullet’ conservation strategies alone will not deliver efficient conservation solutions. Instead, priority areas for biodiversity conservation must be based on high-resolution data from multiple taxa.

Global Patterns of Geographic Range Size in Birds

Large-scale patterns of spatial variation in species geographic range size are central to many fundamental questions in macroecology and conservation biology. However, the global nature of these patterns has remained contentious, since previous studies have been geographically restricted and/or based on small taxonomic groups. Here, using a database on the breeding distributions of birds, we report the first (to our knowledge) global maps of variation in species range sizes for an entire taxonomic class. We show that range area does not follow a simple latitudinal pattern. Instead, the smallest range areas are attained on islands, in mountainous areas, and largely in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, bird species richness peaks around the equator, and towards higher latitudes. Despite these profoundly different latitudinal patterns, spatially explicit models reveal a weak tendency for areas with high species richness to house species with significantly smaller median range area. Taken together, these results show that for birds many spatial patterns in range size described in geographically restricted analyses do not reflect global rules. It remains to be discovered whether global patterns in geographic range size are best interpreted in terms of geographical variation in species assemblage packing, or in the rates of speciation, extinction, and dispersal that ultimately underlie biodiversity.

TESTING FOR LATITUDINAL BIAS IN DIVERSIFICATION RATES: AN EXAMPLE USING NEW WORLD BIRDS

Study of the latitudinal diversity gradient to date has focused largely on pattern description, with relatively little work on the possible mechanisms underlying the pattern. One proximate mechanism is a latitudinal bias in the discrepancy between speciation and extinction rates, leading to higher rates of species diversification toward lower latitudes. Despite being central to many explanations for high tropical diversity, this mechanism is tested very rarely. We discuss some of the problems involved in testing for latitudinal bias in diversification rates and present an example phylogenetic analysis for endemic bird genera of the New World. The results provide evidence for higher diversification rates in clades inhabiting lower latitudes, both when genera are considered independent and when phy- logeny is controlled for using independent contrasts. High rates of diversification are also associated with larger geographic area and higher net primary productivity, although these do not fully account for the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal pattern is stronger in younger clades, supporting the prediction of a simple model in which the signal of latitudinal bias in diversification rates diminishes as clades age and become saturated with species. Our study demonstrates that a clade-based approach can help answer important questions that a geographic approach cannot, but large phylogenies and geographic databases are needed to cope with the large amount of noise inherent in this type of analysis.

Ecology predicts large-scale patterns of phylogenetic diversification in birds.

One of the most striking patterns in evolutionary biology is that clades may differ greatly in the number of species they contain. Numerous hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, and several have been tested using phylogenetic methods. Remarkably, however, all such tests performed to date have been characterized by modest explanatory power, which has generated an interest in explanations stressing the importance of random processes. Here we make use of phylogenetic methods to test whether ecological variables, typically ignored in previous models, may explain phylogenetic tree imbalance in birds. We show that diversification rate possesses an intermediate phylogenetic signal across families. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we then build a multipredictor model that explains more than 50% of the variation in diversification rate among clades. High annual dispersal is identified as the strongest predictor of high rates of diversification. In addition, high diversification rate is strongly associated with feeding generalization. In all but one instance, these key findings remain qualitatively unchanged when we use an alternative phylogeny and methodology and when small clades, containing five species or less, are excluded. Taken together, these results suggest that large‐scale patterns in avian diversification can be explained by variation in intrinsic biology.

Spatial turnover in the global avifauna

Despite its wide implications for many ecological issues, the global pattern of spatial turnover in the occurrence of species has been little studied, unlike the global pattern of species richness. Here, using a database on the breeding distributions of birds, we present the first global maps of variation in spatial turnover for an entire taxonomic class, a pattern that has to date remained largely a matter of conjecture, based on theoretical expectations and extrapolation of inconsistent patterns from different biogeographic realms. We use these maps to test four predictions from niche theory as to the form that this variation should take, namely that turnover should increase with species richness, towards lower latitudes, and with the steepness of environmental gradients and that variation in turnover is determined principally by rare (restricted) species. Contrary to prediction, we show that turnover is high both in areas of extremely low and high species richness, does not increase strongly towards the tropics, and is related both to average environmental conditions and spatial variation in those conditions. These results are closely associated with a further important and novel finding, namely that global patterns of spatial turnover are driven principally by widespread species rather than the restricted ones. This complements recent demonstrations that spatial patterns of species richness are also driven principally by widespread species, and thus provides an important contribution towards a unified model of how terrestrial biodiversity varies both within and between the Earths major land masses.

The Shape and Temporal Dynamics of Phylogenetic Trees Arising from Geographic Speciation

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.

How diversification rates and diversity limits combine to create large-scale species–area relationships

Species–area relationships (SARs) have mostly been treated from an ecological perspective, focusing on immigration, local extinction and resource-based limits to species coexistence. However, a full understanding across large regions is impossible without also considering speciation and global extinction. Rates of both speciation and extinction are known to be strongly affected by area and thus should contribute to spatial patterns of diversity. Here, we explore how variation in diversification rates and ecologically mediated diversity limits among regions of different sizes can result in the formation of SARs. We explain how this area-related variation in diversification can be caused by either the direct effects of area or the effects of factors that are highly correlated with area, such as habitat diversity and population size. We also review environmental, clade-specific and historical factors that affect diversification and diversity limits but are not highly correlated with region area, and thus are likely to cause scatter in observed SARs. We present new analyses using data on the distributions, ages and traits of mammalian species to illustrate these mechanisms; in doing so we provide an integrated perspective on the evolutionary processes shaping SARs.

Sympatric Speciation in Birds Is Rare: Insights from Range Data and Simulations

Sympatric speciation is now accepted as theoretically plausible and a likely explanation for divergence in a handful of taxa, but its contribution to large‐scale patterns of speciation remains contentious. A major problem is that it is difficult to differentiate between alternate scenarios of geographic speciation when species ranges have shifted substantially in the past. Previous studies have searched for a signal of the geographic mode of speciation by testing for a correlation between time since speciation and range overlap. Here we use simulations to show that the proportion of species showing zero or complete range overlap are more reliable indicators of the geography of speciation than is the correlation between time since speciation and overlap. We then apply these findings to the distributions of 291 pairs of avian sister species. Although 49% of pairs show some overlap in their ranges, our simulations show that this is not surprising under allopatric models of speciation. More revealingly, less than 2% show complete range overlap. Our simulations demonstrate that the observed patterns are most consistent with a model in which allopatric speciation is dominant but in which sympatric speciation is also present and contributes 5% of speciation events.

Predicting dispersal distance in mammals: a trait‐based approach

Dispersal is one of the principal mechanisms influencing ecological and evolutionary processes but quantitative empirical data are unfortunately scarce. As dispersal is likely to influence population responses to climate change, whether by adaptation or by migration, there is an urgent need to obtain estimates of dispersal distance. Cross-species correlative approaches identifying predictors of dispersal distance can provide much-needed insights into this data-scarce area. Here, we describe the compilation of a new data set of natal dispersal distances and use it to test life-history predictors of dispersal distance in mammals and examine the strength of the phylogenetic signal in dispersal distance. We find that both maximum and median dispersal distances have strong phylogenetic signals. No single model performs best in describing either maximum or median dispersal distances when phylogeny is taken into account but many models show high explanatory power, suggesting that dispersal distance per generation can be estimated for mammals with comparatively little data availability. Home range area, geographic range size and body mass are identified as the most important terms across models. Cross-validation of models supports the ability of these variables to predict dispersal distances, suggesting that models may be extended to species where dispersal distance is unknown.