C Davies

Long-term effects of continuing adjuvant tamoxifen to 10 years versus stopping at 5 years after diagnosis of oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: ATLAS, a randomised trial

Summary Background For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years. Methods In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12 894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633. Findings Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12 894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%). Interpretation For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.

Adjuvant chemotherapy in oestrogen-receptor-poor breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials.

BACKGROUND The long-term effects of adjuvant polychemotherapy regimens in oestrogen-receptor-poor (ER-poor) breast cancer, and the extent to which these effects are modified by age or tamoxifen use, can be assessed by an updated meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials. METHODS Collaborative meta-analyses of individual patient data for about 6000 women with ER-poor breast cancer in 46 trials of polychemotherapy versus not (non-taxane-based polychemotherapy, typically about six cycles; trial start dates 1975-96, median 1984) and about 14 000 women with ER-poor breast cancer in 50 trials of tamoxifen versus not (some trials in the presence and some in the absence of polychemotherapy; trial start dates 1972-93, median 1982). FINDINGS In women with ER-poor breast cancer, polychemotherapy significantly reduced recurrence, breast cancer mortality, and death from any cause, in those younger than 50 years and those aged 50-69 years at entry into trials of polychemotherapy versus not. In those aged younger than 50 years (1907 women, 15% node-positive), the 10-year risks were: recurrence 33% versus 45% (ratio of 10-year risks 0.73, 2p<0.00001), breast cancer mortality 24% versus 32% (ratio 0.73, 2p=0.0002), and death from any cause 25% versus 33% (ratio 0.75, 2p=0.0003). In women aged 50-69 years (3965 women, 58% node-positive), the 10-year risks were: recurrence 42% versus 52% (ratio 0.82, 2p<0.00001), breast cancer mortality 36% versus 42% (ratio 0.86, 2p=0.0004), and death from any cause 39% versus 45% (ratio 0.87, 2p=0.0009). Few were aged 70 years or older. Tamoxifen had little effect on recurrence or death in women who were classified in these trials as having ER-poor disease, and did not significantly modify the effects of polychemotherapy. INTERPRETATION In women who had ER-poor breast cancer, and were either younger than 50 years or between 50 and 69 years, these older adjuvant polychemotherapy regimens were safe (ie, had little effect on mortality from causes other than breast cancer) and produced substantial and definite reductions in the 10-year risks of recurrence and death. Current and future chemotherapy regimens could well yield larger proportional reductions in breast cancer mortality.

Aromatase inhibitors versus tarnoxifen as adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer: meta-analyses of randomized trials of monotherapy and switching strategies

CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2008 Abstracts Abstract #12 Background: Meta-analyses (EBCTCG, Lancet 2005; 365:2687) have established in estrogen receptor (ER) positive breast cancer (BC) that 5 yrs of adjuvant tamoxifen (Tam) substantially reduces recurrence and mortality. The aromatase inhibitors (AIs) anastrozole, exemestane and letrozole have been studied in prospective trials in postmenopausal patients (pts) in comparison with Tam either as initial monotherapy (Cohort 1) or after 2 to 3 years of Tam in a switching strategy (Cohort 2); both to a total of 5 years (yrs) of endocrine therapy. Methods: Outcomes data submitted to EBCTCG were used in separate meta-analyses of Cohort 1 (trials: ATAC, BIG 1-98/IBCSG 18-98) and of Cohort 2 (trials: ABCSG 8, ARNO 95, IES/BIG 2-97, ITA). The primary analysis involved pts with tumors reported to be ER positive with endpoints of BC recurrence (all, local only, contralateral BC only, distant), death with and without recurrence, any death. Subgroup analyses included progesterone receptor (PgR) status, age, tumor grade and nodal status. All p-values were 2-sided. Results: Highlights include: Cohort 1: 9,856 pts with 50,000 woman-years of follow-up. At 5 yrs, AI therapy was associated with an absolute 2.7% (standard error [SE] 0.7) decrease in BC recurrence (10.7% vs 13.4%, relative decrease 20% [SE 5], p=0.00004). There appeared to be greater proportional decreases in isolated local recurrence (30% [SE 10], p=0.003) and in contralateral disease (38% [SE 12], p=0.003) than in distant recurrence (12% [SE 6], p= 0.04). AIs yielded an absolute 1.0% (SE 0.5) decrease in BC mortality (5.5% vs 6.5%, relative decrease 7% [SE 7], p=0.28). Cohort 2: 9,015 pts with 33,000 woman-years of follow-up. At 6 yrs from treatment divergence (i.e., 8-9 yrs from diagnosis), AI therapy was associated with an absolute 3.5% (SE 1.1) decrease in BC recurrence (12.6% vs 16.1%, relative decrease 29% [SE 6], p<0.00001). There appeared to be greater proportional reductions in isolated local recurrence (40% [SE 13], p=0.002) and in contralateral disease (35% [SE 16], p=0.03) than in distant recurrence (24% [SE 7], p= 0.001). AIs yielded an absolute 1.6% (SE 0.8) decrease in BC mortality (6.3% vs 8.0%, relative decrease 22% [SE 9], p=0.02). Subset analyses with respect to PgR status, age, tumor grade and nodal status revealed no apparent heterogeneity between the proportional reductions in recurrence and no indication of an increase or decrease in non-breast deaths with AIs in either cohort 1 or 2. Conclusions: In 2 separate meta-analyses considering both the initial monotherapy setting and the switching setting after 2 to 3 yrs of Tam, AIs produced significantly lower BC recurrence rates compared with Tam. Additional follow-up data will provide important information on long-term survival. Meta-analyses can be helpful even in the era of relatively large clinical trials. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(2 Suppl):Abstract nr 12.

Abstract S1-2: ATLAS – 10 v 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen (TAM) in ER+ disease: Effects on outcome in the first and in the second decade after diagnosis

Background: In ER+ early breast cancer, 5 years of tamoxifen greatly reduces recurrence throughout the first decade (years 0–9) with little further gain later, and reduces breast cancer mortality (BCM) substantially throughout years 0–14 (EBCTCG, Lancet 2011; 378: 771–84 – see Table). It is not known how 10 years TAM compares with the current standard of just 5 years TAM. Methods: In 1996–2005 the international ATLAS trial randomized 6846 women with ER+ disease who had had ∼5 years of adjuvant TAM to continue another 5 years (to year 10) or stop at year 5 (control). Annual follow-ups recorded compliance, hospital admissions, breast cancer recurrence (including new contralateral), any other new primary cancer and cause of death. Results: Compliance was ∼80%, as after 2 years 84% of those allocated continue and 4% of those allocated stop were still taking endocrine treatment (>99% TAM). With mean 7.1 woman-years follow-up (30,000 w-y in years 5–9, 16,000 in years 10–14, 2000 later), 1328 recurrences were reported (900 in years 5–9, 379 in years 10–14). Recurrence was significantly lower with10 than 5 years TAM (Table: logrank 2p = 0.002, rate ratio (RR)=0.90 se 0.06 in years 5–9 and 0.75 se 0.08 in years 10+). So were both BCM (2p = 0.01, RR = 0.97 se 0.10 in years 5–9 and 0.71 se 0.09 in years 10+) and all-cause mortality (2p = 0.01, with no increase in non-BCM). Proportional risk reductions were homogeneous by country, age and stage. Kaplan-Meier risks in years 5–14 (K-M) were: recurrence 21.4 vs 25.1%, BCM 12.2 vs 15.0%. Uterine cancer K-Ms in those randomized at age 50+ were: incidence 2.6 vs 1.6% (2p = 0.08), mortality 0.2 vs 0.2%. In pre-menopausal women (where AIs are not an alternative to TAM) there was no apparent excess of uterine cancer. Discussion: Compared with just 5 years TAM, continuing TAM to year 10 safely protects further against recurrence and, particularly during the second decade, BCM. Combining results from ATLAS and the EBCTCG meta-analyses of 5 years TAM vs none (both had ∼80% compliance), in a hypothetical trial of 10 vs 0 years TAM with ∼80% compliance, 15-year BCM would be reduced by at least one-third. Hence, full compliance with 10 years TAM would yield even greater benefit (Table). Further follow-up of ATLAS will assess more reliably the apparently substantial mortality reduction in the second decade after diagnosis. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr S1-2.