C.G. Moran

Effect of comorbidities and postoperative complications on mortality after hip fracture in elderly people : prospective observational cohort study

Abstract Objectives To evaluate postoperative medical complications and the association between these complications and mortality at 30 days and one year after surgery for hip fracture and to examine the association between preoperative comorbidity and the risk of postoperative complications and mortality. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting University teaching hospital. Participants 2448 consecutive patients admitted with an acute hip fracture over a four year period. We excluded 358 patients: all those aged < 60; those with periprosthetic fractures, pathological fractures, and fractures treated without surgery; and patients who died before surgery. Interventions Routine care for hip fractures. Main outcome measures Postoperative complications and mortality at 30 days and one year. Results Mortality was 9.6% at 30 days and 33% at one year. The most common postoperative complications were chest infection (9%) and heart failure (5%). In patients who developed postoperative heart failure mortality was 65% at 30 days (hazard ratio 16.1, 95% confidence interval 12.2 to 21.3). Of these patients, 92% were dead by one year (11.3, 9.1 to 14.0). In patients who developed a postoperative chest infection mortality at 30 days was 43% (8.5, 6.6 to 11.1). Significant preoperative variables for increased mortality at 30 days included the presence of three or more comorbidities (2.5, 1.6 to 3.9), respiratory disease (1.8, 1.3 to 2.5), and malignancy (1.5, 1.01 to 2.3). Conclusions In elderly people with hip fracture, the presence of three or more comorbidities is the strongest preoperative risk factor. Chest infection and heart failure are the most common postoperative complications and lead to increased mortality. These groups offer a clear target for specialist medical assessment.

Early Mortality After Hip Fracture: Is Delay Before Surgery Important?

BACKGROUND Hip fracture is associated with high mortality among the elderly. Most patients require surgery, but the timing of the operation remains controversial. Surgery within twenty-four hours after admission has been recommended, but evidence supporting this approach is lacking. The objective of this study was to determine whether a delay in surgery for hip fractures affects postoperative mortality among elderly patients. METHODS We conducted a prospective, observational study of 2660 patients who underwent surgical treatment of a hip fracture at one university hospital. We measured mortality rates following the surgery in relation to the delay in the surgery and the acute medical comorbidities on admission. RESULTS The mortality following the hip fracture surgery was 9% (246 of 2660) at thirty days, 19% at ninety days, and 30% at twelve months. Of the patients who had been declared fit for surgery, those operated on without delay had a thirty-day mortality of 8.7% and those for whom the surgery had been delayed between one and four days had a thirty-day mortality of 7.3%. This difference was not significant (p = 0.51). The thirty-day mortality for patients for whom the surgery had been delayed for more than four days was 10.7%, and this small group had significantly increased mortality at ninety days (hazard ratio = 2.25; p = 0.001) and one year (hazard ratio = 2.4; p = 0.001). Patients who had been admitted with an acute medical comorbidity that required treatment prior to the surgery had a thirty-day mortality of 17%, which was nearly 2.5 times greater than that for patients who had been initially considered fit for surgery (hazard ratio = 2.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.6 to 3.3; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The thirty-day mortality following surgery for a hip fracture was 9%. Patients with medical comorbidities that delayed surgery had 2.5 times the risk of death within thirty days after the surgery compared with patients without comorbidities that delayed surgery. Mortality was not increased when the surgery was delayed up to four days for patients who were otherwise fit for hip fracture surgery. However, a delay of more than four days significantly increased mortality.

Early infection after hip fracture surgery: RISK FACTORS, COSTS AND OUTCOME

Prospective data on hip fracture from 3686 patients at a United Kingdom teaching hospital were analysed to investigate the risk factors, financial costs and outcomes associated with deep or superficial wound infections after hip fracture surgery. In 1.2% (41) of patients a deep wound infection developed, and 1.1% (39) had a superficial wound infection. A total of 57 of 80 infections (71.3%) were due to Staphylococcus aureus and 39 (48.8%) were due to MRSA. No statistically significant pre-operative risk factors were detected. Length of stay, cost of treatment and pre-discharge mortality all significantly increased with deep wound infection. The one-year mortality was 30%, and this increased to 50% in those who developed an infection (p < 0.001). A deep infection resulted in doubled operative costs, tripled investigation costs and quadrupled ward costs. MRSA infection increased costs, length of stay, and pre-discharge mortality compared with non-MRSA infection.

Development and validation of a preoperative scoring system to predict 30 day mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery

BACKGROUND Hip fractures are common in the elderly and have a high 30 day postoperative mortality. The ability to recognize patients at high risk of poor outcomes before operation would be an important clinical advance. This study has determined key prognostic factors predicting 30 day mortality in a hip fracture population, and incorporated them into a scoring system to be used on admission. METHODS A cohort study was conducted at the Queens Medical Centre, Nottingham, over a period of 7 yr. Complete data were collected from 4967 patients and analysed. Forward univariate logistic regression was used to select the independent predictor variables of 30 day mortality, and then multivariate logistic regression was applied to the data to construct and validate the scoring system. RESULTS The variables found to be independent predictors of mortality at 30 days were: age (66-85 yr, > or =86 yr), sex (male), number of co-morbidities (> or =2), mini-mental test score (< or =6 out of 10), admission haemoglobin concentration (< or =10 g dl(-1)), living in an institution, and presence of malignant disease. These variables were subsequently incorporated into a risk score, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. The number of deaths observed at 30 days, and the number of deaths predicted by the scoring system, indicated good concordance (chi(2) test, P=0.79). The area (SE) under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.719 (0.018), which demonstrated a reasonable predictive value for the score. CONCLUSIONS We have developed and validated a scoring system that reliably predicts the probability of mortality at 30 days for patients after hip fracture.

Nottingham Hip Fracture Score as a predictor of one year mortality in patients undergoing surgical repair of fractured neck of femur

BACKGROUND Surgical repair of hip fractures is associated with high postoperative mortality. The identification of high-risk patients might be of value in aiding clinical management decisions and resource allocation. The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) is a scoring system validated for the prediction of 30 day mortality after hip fracture surgery. It is made up of seven independent predictors of mortality that have been incorporated into a risk score: age (66-85 and ≥86 yr); sex (male); number of co-morbidities (≥2), admission mini-mental test score (≤6 out of 10), admission haemoglobin concentration (≤10 g dl(-1)), living in an institution; and the presence of malignancy. We investigated whether the NHFS was a predictor of 1 yr mortality in patients undergoing surgical repair of fractured neck of femur. METHODS NHFS was retrospectively calculated for 6202 patients who had undergone hip fracture surgery between 1999 and 2009. One year and 30 day postoperative mortality data were collected both from hospital statistics and the Office of National Statistics. RESULTS Overall mortality was 8.3% at 30 days and 29.3% at 1 yr. An NHFS of ≤4 was considered low risk and a score of ≥5 high risk. Survival was greater in the low-risk group at 30 days [96.5% vs 86.3% (P<0.001)] and at 1 yr [84.1% vs 54.5% (P<0.001)]. CONCLUSIONS NHFS can be used to stratify the risk of 1 yr mortality after hip fracture surgery.

Surgical treatment of distal radial fractures with a volar locking plate versus conventional percutaneous methods: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of displaced distal radial fractures treated with a volar locking plate with the results of such fractures treated with a conventional method of closed reduction and percutaneous wire fixation with supplemental bridging external fixation when required. Our aim was to ascertain whether the use of a volar locking plate improves functional outcomes. METHODS A single-center, pragmatic, randomized controlled trial was conducted in a tertiary care institution. One hundred and thirty patients (eighteen to seventy-three years of age) who had a displaced distal radial fracture were randomized to treatment with either a volar locking plate (n = 66) or a conventional percutaneous fixation method (n = 64). Outcome assessments were conducted at six weeks, twelve weeks, and one year. Outcomes were measured on the basis of scores on the Patient Evaluation Measure (PEM) and QuickDASH questionnaire (a shortened version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand, or DASH, Outcome Measure), EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) scores, wrist range of motion, grip strength, and radiographic parameters. RESULTS The rate of follow-up at one year was 95%. Patients in the volar locking-plate group had significantly better PEM and QuickDASH scores and range of motion at six weeks compared with patients in the conventional-treatment group, but there were no significant differences between the two groups at twelve weeks or one year. Grip strength was better in the plate group at all time points. The volar locking plate was better at restoring palmar tilt and radial height. Significantly more patients in the plate group were driving at the end of six weeks, but this did not translate to a significant difference between groups in terms of those returning to work by that time. CONCLUSIONS Use of a volar locking plate resulted in a faster early recovery of function compared with use of conventional methods. However, no functional advantage was demonstrated at or beyond twelve weeks. Use of the volar locking plate resulted in better anatomical reduction and grip strength, but there was no significant difference in function between the groups at twelve weeks or one year. The earlier recovery of function may be of advantage to some patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Therapeutic Level I. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Nottingham Hip Fracture Score: longitudinal and multi-centre assessment

BACKGROUND The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was developed and validated in a single centre in 2007 as a predictor of 30 day mortality. It has subsequently been shown to predict longer term and functional outcomes. We wished to assess the ability of NHFS to predict outcomes in other centres and to investigate the change in outcome after hip fracture over time. METHODS The NHFS was calculated for all patients with data from three UK hip fracture units: Peterborough (1992-2009), Brighton (2008-9), and Nottingham (2000-9) including 4804, 585, and 1901 patients, respectively. The logistic regression was used to recalibrate the NHFS to 30 day mortality across the three units using a random selection of 50% of the data set. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit. RESULTS The median (inter-quartile range) NHFS values were Peterborough [4.0 (1-6)], Brighton [5.0 (3-7)], and Nottingham [5.0 (3-7)]. There was no correlation between 30 day mortality and time (R(2)=0.05, P=0.115). The proportion of patients with NHFS ≥ 4 showed a weak correlation with time (R(2)=0.2, P=0.003). The original NHFS equation overestimates mortality in the higher-risk groups. A modified equation shows good calibration for all three centres {30 day mortality (%)=100/1+e([(5.012 × (NHFS × 0.481)])}. The hospital was not a predictor of 30 day mortality. CONCLUSIONS The NHFS, with an updated equation, is a robust predictor of 30 day mortality after hip fracture repair in geographically distinct UK centres.

All-polyethylene compared with metal-backed tibial components in total knee arthroplasty at ten years. A prospective, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Several studies have described equivalent performance on radiostereometric analysis at two years for metal-backed compared with all-polyethylene stemmed tibial implants. The purpose of this study was to determine the ten-year survivorship results of these two designs from a large randomized controlled trial. METHODS Patients who were fifty years old or more, with no history of infection, and were undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty were randomized at the time of surgery to receive either an all-polyethylene or a metal-backed tibial component. Patients were assessed preoperatively and at one, three, five, eight, and ten years postoperatively. All assessments included a clinical history, a physical examination, and a radiographic evaluation. A total of 510 consecutive patients (566 knees) were recruited from August 1993 to January 1997. The mean age of the patients at the time of the index arthroplasty was 69.3 years, and 299 (59%) were women. The primary diagnosis was osteoarthritis for 458 knees (80.9%) and rheumatoid arthritis for 108 knees (19.1%). RESULTS Two hundred and ninety-three patients returned for the ten-year follow-up evaluation. A total of twenty-eight knees had been revised. Ten-year survivorship, with revision for any reason (or the time at which patients were documented as requiring revision but were unfit for surgery) as the end point, was 94.5% (95% confidence interval, 90.4% to 96.8%) for the all-polyethylene design and 96% (95% confidence interval, 92.6% to 97.8%) for the metal-backed design. Ten-year survivorship, with aseptic failure as the end point, was 97% (95% confidence interval, 93.3% to 98.7%) for the all-polyethylene design and 96.8% (95% confidence interval, 93.6% to 98.4%) for the metal-backed design. On the basis of the numbers available at ten years, there was no significant difference in survivorship between the two designs (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS The long-term results demonstrate excellent survivorship, with revision as the end point, for both the metal-backed and the all-polyethylene tibial component designs with no differences noted between the two.

Evolution of the hip fracture population: time to consider the future? A retrospective observational analysis

Objective To examine how the population with fractured neck of femur has changed over the last decade and determine whether they have evolved to become a more physically and socially dependent cohort. Design Retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected Standardised Audit of Hip Fractures of Europe data entered on to an institutional hip fracture registry. Participants 10 044 consecutive hip fracture admissions (2000–2012). Setting A major trauma centre in the UK. Results There was a generalised increase in the number of admissions between 2000 (n=740) and 2012 (n=810). This increase was non-linear and best described by a quadratic curve. Assuming no change in the prevalence of hip fracture over the next 20 years, our hospital is projected to treat 871 cases in 2020 and 925 in 2030. This represents an approximate year-on-year increase of just over 1%. There was an increase in the proportion of male admissions over the study period (2000: 174 of 740 admissions (23.5%); 2012: 249 of 810 admissions (30.7%)). This mirrored national census changes within the geographical area during the same period. During the study period there were significant increases in the numbers of patients admitted from their own home, the proportion of patients requiring assistance to mobilise, and the proportion of patients requiring help with basic activities of daily living (all p<0.001). There was also a twofold to fourfold increase in the proportion of patients admitted with a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, renal disease, diabetes and polypharmacy (use of >4 prescribed medications; all p<0.001). Conclusions The expanding hip fracture population has increasingly complex medical, social and rehabilitation care needs. This needs to be recognised so that appropriate healthcare strategies and service planning can be implemented. This epidemiological analysis allows projections of future service need in terms of patient numbers and dependency.

Predictors of 5 year survival following hip fracture

BACKGROUND This study aims to assess the mortality associated with hip fracture at 5 years in a geriatric population, and evaluate the influence of age, cognitive state, mobility and residential status on long term survival after hip fracture. METHODS A prospective audit was carried out of all patients with a hip fracture admitted to a university hospital over a 4 year period. Data from 2640 patients were analysed and multivariate analysis used to indicate the important variables predicting mortality. Patients fulfilling the criteria of age<80 years, Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMT)≥7/10, independently mobile and admitted from own home were put into group A (low risk group). Patients not meeting the criteria were placed into group B (high risk group). RESULTS 2640 patients fitted the inclusion criteria, 482 in group A and 2158 in group B. 850 patients (43.1%) died in their first year following hip fracture. 302 patients (63%) of group A were still alive at 5 years in comparison with only 367 (17%) of group B. Overall, 669 (25%) patients survived for 5 years. Increased survival was shown for the following variables: age<80 years RR 5.27 (p<0.01), AMT≥7/10 RR 6.03 (p<0.01), independent mobility RR 2.63 (p<0.01) and admitted from own home RR 4.52 (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS These findings will allow for early recognition of those patients with an increased chance of long-term survival following hip fracture. Such patients may be suitable for surgical treatment, such as total hip replacement, which has a good long-term outcome.