C. James Hueng

Conditional risk–return relationship in a time-varying beta model

We investigate the asymmetric risk–return relationship in a time-varying beta CAPM. A state space model is established and estimated by the Adaptive Least Squares with Kalman foundations proposed by McCulloch. Using S&P 500 daily data from 1987:11–2003:12, we find a positive risk–return relationship in the up market (positive market excess returns) and a negative relationship in the down market (negative market excess returns). This supports the argument of Pettengill et al., who use a constant beta model. However, our model outperforms theirs by eliminating the unexplained returns and improving the accuracy of the estimated risk price.

The Demand for Money in an Open Economy: Some Evidence for Canada

Abstract This paper presents estimates of an open-economy money demand function. A cash-in-advance model is constructed to motivate the specification of the demand for money in an open economy. Special attention is paid to unit root nonstationarity in the time series data. Econometric techniques designed to accommodate integrated and cointegrated variables are used to analyze the data. Canadian quarterly data for the period 1973:2–1990:1 are used. The results suggest that changes in the foreign interest rates and exchange rates affect the demand for Canadian real Divisia money.

The Correlation Between Shocks to Output and the Price Level:Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

Previous research indicates that the price-output correlation is time varying. This paper therefore estimates a vector autoregression (VAR) model with a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) error process to obtain quarterly estimates of the price-output correlation for the United States for the period 1876:IV–1999:IV. The estimated correlation is usually positive before 1945 and zero during 1945–1963. Negative correlations become important only after 1963 but do not become obviously more important than zero correlations. Prior to 1945, the estimated correlation typically is positive during both recessions and expansions. After 1945, the estimated correlation remains largely positive during recessions but becomes mainly negative during expansions, suggesting that changes in the sign of the price-output correlation are the result primarily of changes in its sign during expansions.

Money Demand in an Open-Economy Shopping-Time Model: An Out-of-Sample- Prediction Application to Canada

This paper develops a shopping-time model in an open economy framework to motivate the specification of money demand. This microfoundations-of-money model allows me to choose which variables, and in what forms, should be used in the empirical money demand function. In particular, the model includes the real exchange rate and foreign interest rates and distinguishes explicitly between consumption of imports and consumption of domestically produced goods. In addition, the model implies several long-run relations among relevant variables that can be utilized in the short-run dynamics of the money demand function. Based on this model, Canadian quarterly data for the period 1971:1-1997:2 are used to evaluate the out-of-sample prediction performance of the model. The results show that an error-correction representation of the model performs significantly better than several unrestricted and traditional open- and closed-economy models in the out-of-sample prediction of Canadian real M1 demand.

Investor preferences and portfolio selection: Is diversification an appropriate strategy?

This paper analyzes the relationship between diversification and several distributional characteristics that have risk implications for stock returns. We develop a flexible three-parameter distribution to model the stock returns. Using data on the current 30 DJIA stocks, we show that an investors strategy on diversification depends on the measures of risk for particular concerns. For example, investors who desire to increase positive skewness would hold a less diversified portfolio, while those who care more about extreme losses would hold a more diversified portfolio. Experimenting with a more general pool of stocks yields the same conclusions.

Short-sales constraints and stock return asymmetry: evidence from the Chinese stock markets

The difficulty of short-selling stocks in the Chinese markets conforms to the assumption of the ‘Differences-of-Opinion’ theory and therefore, provides an empirical framework for testing the theory. The results show evidence supporting the theory: heavier trading predicts a more negatively skewed return.

Traditional view or revisionist view? The effects of monetary policy on exchange rates in Asia

This article investigates the channels through which the short-term interest rate is used as an instrument to stabilize the exchange rates in Asia during the financial crisis in the 1990s. A time-varying-parameter model with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) disturbances is employed to estimate the dynamic effect of the interest rate on the exchange rate. We distinguish the direct effect from the indirect effect. The direct effect exists so that a contractionary monetary policy can have an appreciation impact (the traditional view). The indirect effect refers to the higher default risk induced by a monetary policy tightening, which on the contrary generates a depreciation pressure (the revisionist view). Using weekly data from Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand from 1997:07 to 1998:12, we find that there is no significant evidence in favour of the traditional view. The revisionist view is clearly in effect in Thailand at the very beginning of the crisis.

Output convergence revisited: new time series results on industrialized countries

Cross-country output convergence is re-examined using a flexible concept of unit roots. While the presence of a constant unit root in output-differences implies nonconvergence, the presence of a stochastic unit root on the contrary implies convergence. Using the output-differences between the USA and the other 14 OECD countries, we find output divergence only for the USA/UK and USA/Sweden country-pairs.

The impact of foreign variables on domestic money demand: Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper contributes to the existing money demand literature by developing and estimating a shopping-time model in an open economy framework. Based on this microfoundations-of-money model, United Kingdom quarterly data for the period 1973:2–1997:2 are analyzed in the empirical study. After accounting for nonstationarity in the time series processes, I find three long-run relationships among the relevant variables. Estimation of the error-correction representation implied by the model shows that the foreign exchange rates and the imports consumption, in addition to the domestic variables, have significant effects on British demand for real money.

Interest-rate risk factor and stock returns: A time-varying factor-loadings model

We extend the Fama–French three-factor model to include a risk factor that proxies for interest-rate risk faced by firms in an attempt to reduce the pricing errors that the three-factor model cannot explain. These pricing errors are observed especially in small size and low book-to-market ratio firms, which are in general more sensitive to interest-rate risk. In addition, the factor loadings are modelled as time-varying so that the investors’ learning process can be taken into account. The results show that our Time-Varying-Loadings Four-Factor (TVL4) model significantly reduces the pricing errors.