C.M. Hopper

Sensitivity- and Uncertainty-Based Criticality Safety Validation Techniques

Abstract The theoretical basis for the application of sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis methods to the validation of benchmark data sets for use in criticality safety applications is developed. Sensitivity analyses produce energy-dependent sensitivity coefficients that give the relative change in the system multiplication factor keff value as a function of relative changes in the cross-section data by isotope, reaction, and energy. Integral indices are then developed that utilize the sensitivity information to quantify similarities between pairs of systems, typically a benchmark experiment and design system. Uncertainty analyses provide an estimate of the uncertainties in the calculated values of the system keff due to cross-section uncertainties, as well as correlation in the keff uncertainties between systems. These uncertainty correlations provide an additional measure of system similarity. The use of the similarity measures from both S/U analyses in the formal determination of areas of applicability for benchmark experiments is developed. Furthermore, the use of these similarity measures as a trending parameter for the estimation of the computational bias and uncertainty is explored. The S/U analysis results, along with the calculated and measured keff values and estimates of uncertainties in the measurements, were used in this work to demonstrate application of the generalized linear-least-squares methodology (GLLSM) to data validation for criticality safety studies. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the application of these S/U analysis procedures to actual criticality safety problems. Computational biases, uncertainties, and the upper subcritical limit for the example applications are determined with the new methods and compared to those obtained through traditional criticality safety analysis validation techniques. The GLLSM procedure is also applied to determine cutoff values for the similarity indices such that applicability of a benchmark experiment to a criticality safety design system can be assured. Additionally, the GLLSM procedure is used to determine how many applicable benchmark experiments exceeding a certain degree of similarity are necessary for an accurate assessment of the computational bias.

Assessment and recommendations for fissile-material packaging exemptions and general licenses within 10 CFR Part 71

This report provides a technical and regulatory assessment of the fissile material general licenses and fissile material exemptions within Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations Part 71. The assessment included literature studies and calculational analyses to evaluate the technical criteria; review of current industry practice and concerns; and a detailed evaluation of the regulatory text for clarity, consistency and relevance. Recommendations for potential consideration by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff are provided. The recommendations call for a simplification and consolidation of the general licenses and a change in the technical criteria for the first fissile material exemptions.

Calculation of the minimum critical mass of fissile nuclides

Abstract The OB-1 method for the calculation of the minimum critical mass of fissile actinides in metal/water systems was described in a previous paper. A fit to the calculated minimum critical mass data using the extended criticality parameter is the basis of the revised method. The solution density (grams/liter) for the minimum critical mass is also obtained by a fit to calculated values. Input to the calculation consists of the Maxwellian averaged fission and absorption cross sections and the thermal values of nubar. The revised method gives more accurate values than the original method does for both the minimum critical mass and the solution densities. The OB-1 method has been extended to calculate the uncertainties in the minimum critical mass for 12 different fissile nuclides. The uncertainties for the fission and capture cross sections and the estimated nubar uncertainties are used to determine the uncertainties in the minimum critical mass, either in percent or grams. Results have been obtained for 233U, 235U, 236Pu, 239Pu, 241Pu, 242mAm, 243Cm, 245Cm, 249Cf, 251Cf, 253Cf, and 254Es. Eight of these 12 nuclides are included in the ANS-8.15 standard.

Application of the pitzer method for modeling densities of actinide solutions in the scale code system

Abstract A new approach to modeling fissile solution densities is developed and applied to arbitrary solutions of UO22+, Th4+, Pu4+, H+, and NO3- in water. The model is based on the semiempirical method of Pitzer for describing electrolyte solution thermodynamics. This new density model has been included in the recent release of the SCALE 5 code system as the default for criticality calculations of fissile solutions.

EMSP project summary (Project ID: 60077): Development of nuclear analysis capabilities for DOE waste management activities

The objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate prototypical analysis capabilities that can be used by nuclear safety analysis practitioners to: (1) demonstrate a more thorough understanding of the underlying physics phenomena that can lead to improved reliability and defensibility of safety evaluations; and (2) optimize operations related to the handling, storage, transportation, and disposal of fissile material and DOE spent fuel. To address these problems, this project has been investigating the implementation of sensitivity and uncertainty methods within existing Monte Carlo codes used for criticality safety analyses. It is also investigating the use of a new deterministic code that allows for specification of arbitrary grids to accurately model geometric details required in a criticality safety analysis. This capability can facilitate improved estimations of the required subcritical margin and potentially enable the use of a broader range of experiments in the validation process. The new arbitrary-grid radiation transport code will also enable detailed geometric modeling valuable for improved accuracy in application to a myriad of other problems related to waste characterization. Application to these problems will also be explored.

Development of nuclear analysis capabilities for DOE waste management activities

The objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate prototypic analysis capabilities that can be used by the nuclear safety analysis practitioners to: (1) demonstrate a more thorough understanding of the underlying physics phenomena that can lead to improved reliability and defensibility of safety evaluations; and (2) optimize operations related to the handling, storage, transportation, and disposal of fissile material and DOE spent fuel. To address these problems, the project will investigate the implementation of sensitivity and uncertainty methods within existing Monte Carlo codes used for criticality safety analyses, as well as within a new deterministic code that allows specification of arbitrary grids to accurately model the geometry details required in a criticality safety analysis. This capability can facilitate improved estimations of the required subcritical margin and potentially enable the use of a broader range of experiments in the validation process. The new arbitrary-grid radiation transport code will also enable detailed geometric modeling valuable for improved accuracy in application to a myriad of other problems related to waste characterization. Application to these problems will also be explored.

Dose consequences from a postulated criticality occurring in a low-level waste disposal facility

Evaluations were done to determine conditions that could permit nuclear criticality with fissile uranium in low-level waste (LLW) facilities and to estimate potential radiation exposures to personnel if there were such an accident. Simultaneous hydrogeochemical and nuclear criticality studies were done (1) to identity realistic scenarios for uranium migration and concentration increase at LLW disposal facilities, (2) to model groundwater transport of uranium and subsequent concentration via sorption or precipitation, (3) to evaluate the potential for nuclear criticality resulting from potential increases in uranium concentration over disposal limits, and (4) to estimate potential radiation exposures to personnel resulting from criticality consequences. This paper presents the details of the radiation exposure calculations relying on the conditions as determined from the preceding studies detailed in a cited reference.

Improved dose estimates for nuclear criticality accidents

Slide rules are improved for estimating doses and dose rates resulting from nuclear criticality accidents. The original slide rules were created for highly enriched uranium solutions and metals using hand calculations along with the decades old Way-Wigner radioactive decay relationship and the inverse square law. This work uses state-of-the-art methods and better data to improve the original slide rules and also to extend the slide rule concept to three additional systems; i.e., highly enriched (93.2 wt%) uranium damp (H/{sup 235}U = 10) powder (U{sub 3}O{sub 8}) and low-enriched (5 wt%) uranium mixtures (UO{sub 2}F{sub 2}) with a H/{sup 235}U ratio of 200 and 500. Although the improved slide rules differ only slightly from the original slide rules, the improved slide rules and also the new slide rules can be used with greater confidence since they are based on more rigorous methods and better nuclear data.