C. Paul Mitchell

The development of MISCANFOR, a new Miscanthus crop growth model: towards more robust yield predictions under different climatic and soil conditions

Miscanthus×giganteus (Greef et Deu.), a perennial rhizomatous grass, native of SE Asia, has been trialed Europe‐wide as a potential bio‐energy crop. Plant growth models have been developed to match previously reported field experiments. These models have been used to extrapolate Miscanthus yields to other environments. Although the models use similar process descriptions, the parameters used to match the experimental data vary from site to site. This paper describes the development of universal process descriptions that use genotype‐specific parameters to predict yields in a wide range of environments. Using these, we develop a new model, MISCANFOR, from an existing model MISCANMOD by improving process descriptions for light interception by the canopy and the impact of temperature and water stress on radiation use efficiency. Genotype‐specific process descriptions for plant growth phase, photo‐period sensitivity, thermal time, temperature dependant radiation‐use efficiency, drought and frost kill predictions, nutrient repartition to the rhizome, and moisture content at harvest are added. Predictions made with MISCANFOR are compared with MISCANMOD for 36 experimental data sets for a wide variety of soils and climatic conditions in Europe. MISCANFOR matches field experiments with an r2=0.84 compared with 0.64 for MISCANMOD, building confidence that the new model will be better able to predict Miscanthus yields for other areas and future IPCC climate scenarios. This model has identified photoperiod sensitivity in addition to drought resistance and frost tolerance as parameters for crop improvement to extend the range of climatic conditions under which this crop can be grown economically.

Future energy potential of Miscanthus in Europe

European field experiments have demonstrated Miscanthus can produce some of the highest energy yields per hectare of all potential energy crops. Previous modelling studies using MISCANMOD have calculated the potential energy yield for the EU27 from mean historical climate data (1960–1990). In this paper, we have built on the previous studies by further developing a new Miscanthus crop growth model MISCANFOR in order to analyse (i) interannual variation in yields for past and future climates, (ii) genotype‐specific parameters on yield in Europe. Under recent climatic conditions (1960–1990) we show that 10% of arable land could produce 1709 PJ and mitigate 30 Tg of carbon dioxide‐carbon (CO2‐C) equivalent greenhouse gasses (GHGs) compared with EU27 primary energy consumption of 65 598 PJ, emitting 1048 Tg of CO2‐C equivalent GHGs in 2005. If we continue to use the clone Miscanthus×giganteus, MISCANFOR shows that, as climate change reduces in‐season water availability, energy production and carbon mitigation could fall 80% by 2080 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario. However, because Miscanthus is found in a huge range of climates in Asia, we propose that new hybrids will incorporate genes conferring superior drought and frost tolerance. Using parameters from characterized germplasm, we calculate energy production could increase from present levels by 88% (to 2360 PJ) and mitigate 42 Tg of CO2‐C equivalent using 10% arable land for the 2080 mid‐range A2 scenario. This is equivalent to 3.6% of 2005 EU27 primary energy consumption and 4.0% of total CO2 equivalent C GHG emissions.

Potential of Miscanthus grasses to provide energy and hence reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Using bio-fuels, such as bio-ethanol or bio-diesel in transportation, or biomass in power generation reduces CO2 emissions as the carbon is fixed by the plants from the atmosphere and saves the equivalent fossil fuel. The perennial rhizomatous C4 grass Miscanthus has one of the highest energy intensities per hectare of land in Europe. Here we model the future potential of Europe to produce Miscanthus with four different future land use and climate change scenarios and conclude that up to 17% of Europe’s current primary energy consumption could be provided by this bio-energy crop by the year 2080 but that inter-annual variation of crop yield can be more than 20%. We conclude that that the highest greenhouse gas mitigation from bio-energy can be achieved by growing a Miscanthus crop on existing fertile and degraded arable land and not on land with a currently undisturbed ecosystem.

Identifying important biophysical and social determinants of on-farm tree growing in subsistence-based traditional agroforestry systems

Many expert-designed agroforestry projects enunciated in 1970s around the world, particularly in the developing countries, had uneven success due to inadequate adoption or abandonment after adoption. There are many empirical studies on factors affecting on-farm tree cultivation mainly where expert-designed agroforestry programmes were introduced but lacking in case of traditional agroforestry. Moreover, the concern to identify key factors influencing on-farm tree growing is gaining importance. The present study identifies key factors in on-farm tree growing based on investigation of traditional agroforestry using logistic regression approach. The study is based on household survey of 401 households located in Indian Western Himalaya. The factors affecting on-farm tree growing were grouped into: biophysical (included land use and infrastructural aspects) and social. Models predicting on-farm tree growing for each category were developed and key factors affecting on-farm tree growing in the respective category were identified. A composite model was also developed by combining biophysical and social factors. In the present study, farm size, agroclimatic zone, soil fertility, mobility and importance of tree for future generations respectively were the key factors which influenced tree growing. In contrast to many previous studies which considered either biophysical or social factors, the composite model in the present study reveals that both biophysical and social factors are simultaneously important in motivating the farmers to grow trees on their farms in traditional agroforestry. Moreover, the present study open vistas for using farmers’ experience and knowledge of adoption of agroforestry to stimulate on-farm tree growing. The wider implication of the study is that biophysical as well as social variables should be considered together in designing suitable agroforestry systems in various parts of the world.

Sustainable development of non-timber forest products: implication for forest management in India

Abstract Sustainable exploitation of non-wood forest resources as a means for achieving the complimentary objectives of natural forest conservation and income generation for rural inhabitants has drawn international attention in recent years. Accomplishing these dual goals requires an understanding of how non-timber forest products (NTFP) extraction and marketing functions in the tropical regions. This is often hindered by an absence of basic research and analysis. The paper reviews the prevailing management systems and forest policy in India with a view to examining the problems and prospects for NTFP development. Factors influencing the production of economically important NTFP were determined through a case study and the deficiencies in the existing marketing strategy were analysed. Measures to improve the extraction system for higher returns to both the state forestry sector and primary collectors were highlighted and the need for domestication of NTFP species was stressed.

Do socio-psychological factors matter in agroforestry planning? Lessons from smallholder traditional agroforestry systems

Most of the well planned rural development forestry programs of the 1970s, and agroforestry in particular, were either not adopted by the intended beneficiaries or failed to meet the needs and aspirations of the rural people, particularly in the developing countries. The reasons for non-adoption in some cases appear to be technical, bio-physical, social and economic (termed as rational reasons by the planners), but in other situations the reasons are not so easily recognisable and comprehended (termed irrational reasons). These irrational reasons are the perceptions and attitude of the farmer towards farm practices, and their role in agroforestry planning has remained almost completely neglected. The present study is based on a household survey of the farmers in traditional agroforestry systems of Western Himalaya and investigates the importance of perceptional and attitudinal aspects of the farmers with regard to agroforestry adoption and extension. In the present study, farmers’ perceptions of restrictions on felling of trees from their own land and attitudes towards agroforestry were the most important sociopsychological factors which influenced tree growing. This study implies a need to take into account the socio-psychological factors of the farmers for planning socially acceptable agroforestry programs. The importance of study of various de jure rules and regulations controlling the use of on-farm tree resources and related exemptions and their association with farmers’ perceptions and tree growing is highlighted to develop policies to encourage tree growing in agroforestry.