C. Robert Kenley

Discounting models for long-term decision making

This paper investigates alternative approaches to constant rate discounting for calculation of Net Present Value (NPV) in life cycle cost models that are used for engineering trade studies. Alternative approaches are necessary to meet the challenge of equitable intergenerational resource allocation for projects like radioactive waste disposal that have a life cycle that impacts future generations well beyond the 30-year maximum time horizon limit that results from using market-determined interest rates on bonds. This paper reviews the literature on long-term discount models, provides a consistent nomenclature for describing the models, summarizes the theoretical and empirical basis for hyperbolic discounting models, evaluates the research results to date, and provides a recommendation for applying hyperbolic discounting. It also identifies issues with the current U.S. government policy on discounting and the future research necessary to establish an improved foundation for discounting models for long-term projects.

The error budget process: an example from environmental remote sensing

The process of translating user requirements into technological specifications using mathematical models is described using the example of mission requirements for designing the next generation environmental satellites. The analysis provides an end-to-end traceability from the user mission figures of merit to the software algorithm and hardware sensor design specifications. The models employ a wide range of error budget mathematical analysis tools that are easily executed using a spreadsheet program on a desktop computer. The analysis also shows that the infrared sensor in the existing satellites does not meet the user needs for identifying thin cirrus clouds and that the proposed sensor for the next generation satellites will easily meet the proposed performance user requirement.

A System-of-Systems perspective for information fusion system design and evaluation

Abstract This paper provides a System-of-Systems (SoS) perspective for integrated design and evaluation of an Information Fusion System (IFS). IFS is comprised of distributed and heterogeneous systems that accomplish low-level and high-level information fusion (LLIF and HLIF) functionality. LLIF and HLIF functions are developed independent from one another but require collaboration to achieve the IFS mission objectives. The distribution and heterogeneity of systems, in addition to the multiplicity of LLIF and HLIF functions, creates an extensively large design space for the IFS. We apply a SoS engineering architecting process to obtain integrated architectures of IFS and propose guidelines to constrain an otherwise infinite design space of Information Fusion System-of-Systems (IF-SoS). Furthermore, we elaborate a multi-agent system modeling approach and pair it with Design of Experiments for objective evaluation of the IF-SoS design space. The statistical analysis, based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey Honest Significant Difference (HSD) Range Tests, quantifies the impact of interactions between LLIF and HLIF design considerations on the IF-SoS performance. Furthermore, statistical evidence is provided to demonstrate that the interactions among JDL levels, in particular between LLIF and HLIF, are the most significant design considerations for fusion performance which necessitate an integrated design and evaluation of LLIF and HLIF—a manifestation of the SoS perspective for the IFS.

A mechanism design framework for the acquisition of independently managed systems of systems

This paper applies results from studies of the acquisition process and from algorithmic methods applicable to the mechanism design of agent-based auctions to modeling behaviors and effecting policy interventions that are intended to improve overall programmatic performance when acquiring independently managed systems of systems. Previous models and empirical studies provide an understanding of the behavioral aspects of the acquisition process and are supported by empirical data from surveys. A method inspired by mechanism design is proposed that incorporates the insights and data from these studies to formulate a probabilistic optimization framework for constructing interventions that enhance the probability of meeting cost and schedule goals when acquiring a system of systems.

Next-generation enterprise architectures: Common vernacular and evolution towards service-orientation

Industry 4.0 is opening new avenues for reconfigurable and information-centric integration of enterprise functions and control systems. Most of the current approaches (e.g., ISA-95) view enterprise architectures in a pre-defined, monolithic, and hierarchical sense. To enable more innovative, personalized, and efficient manufacturing processes, however, such ‘tree-like’ architectures must turn into decentralized and cyber-physical networks of ‘things’ and ‘services’. This article investigates the emerging Industry 4.0 paradigms and architectures (e.g., IIRA, RAMI4.0), their commonalities, limitations, and evolution towards modular and service-oriented architectures (eg., ISO/IEC 18384:2016). The goal is to identify and analyze the existing technical and technological gaps, and provide recommendations for developing new reference models/architectures for next-generation enterprises.

An Assumptions-Based Framework for TRL-Based Cost and Schedule Models

The Technology Readiness Level scale has been used to assess progress and provide a framework for developing technology. Many Technology Readiness Level-based cost and schedule models have been developed to monitor technology maturation, mitigate program risk, characterize transition times, or model schedule and cost risk for individual technologies as well technology systems and portfolios. We present a four-level classification of models based on the often-implicit assumptions they make. For each level, we clarify the assumptions made, review evidence that supports the assumptions, and propose alternative or improved models. Our results include a justification of the recommendations of the US General Accounting Office on Technology Readiness Level, two new methodologies for robust estimation of median transition times and for forecasting transition times using historical data, and a set of recommendations for Technology Readiness Level-based regression models.

Discounting models for long-term decision making: Regular Paper

This paper investigates alternative approaches to constant rate discounting for calculation of Net Present Value (NPV) in life cycle cost models that are used for engineering trade studies. Alternative approaches are necessary to meet the challenge of equitable intergenerational resource allocation for projects like radioactive waste disposal that have a life cycle that impacts future generations well beyond the 30-year maximum time horizon limit that results from using market-determined interest rates on bonds. This paper reviews the literature on long-term discount models, provides a consistent nomenclature for describing the models, summarizes the theoretical and empirical basis for hyperbolic discounting models, evaluates the research results to date, and provides a recommendation for applying hyperbolic discounting. It also identifies issues with the current U.S. government policy on discounting and the future research necessary to establish an improved foundation for discounting models for long-term projects.