C. Scott Clark

A variable-length shipments-orders mechanism, with application to industries in Canada

A variable-length shipments-orders mechanism, with application to industries in Canada. A model of the shipments-orders relation is developed which combines a fixed work lag and a variable wait lag. The wait lag is represented by a Pois- son distribution and the work lag by a polynomial function. This model allows the shape and length of the distributed lag relation to change each period. The model, along with a fixed weight shipments-orders model and a variable weight model developed by Tinsley, is estimated. The fixed shipments-orders model is rejected as a satisfactory specification. Although the two variable weight models perform equally well the variable length model satisfies the a priori constraints more often.