C.-Y. Cynthia Lin

Increasing background ozone in surface air over the United States

The long-term trend of background O3 in surface air over the United States from 1980 to 1998 is examined using monthly probability distributions of daily maximum 8- hour average O3 concentrations at a large ensemble of rural sites. Ozone concentrations have decreased at the high end of the probability distribution (reflecting emission controls) but have increased at the low end. The cross-over takes place between the 30th and 50th percentiles in May-August and between the 60th and 90th percentiles during the rest of the year. The increase is statistically significant at a 5% level in spring and fall, when it is 3-5 ppbv. The maximum increase is in the Northeast. A possible explanation is an increase in the Oa background transported from outside the United States. Better understanding of the causes of the increase is needed because of its implications for meeting Oa air quality standards.

Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.

Measuring Benefits from a Marketing Cooperative in the Copper River Fishery

The degradation of product quality is one form of rent dissipation resulting from incomplete property rights in fisheries. Industry structure and information asymmetries can also lead to underinvestment in product quality, even when property rights are well defined. In this article we empirically examine whether the voluntary formation of a marketing cooperative was able to mitigate market failures that led to the production of inferior-quality fish. Specifically, we use a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to measure the impact that the Copper River Fishermens Cooperative, an Alaskan salmon marketing cooperative, had on ex-vessel salmon prices and salmon quality measures. We find that the cooperative was able to improve product quality, as well as attract and sustain a higher price for its salmon. Our findings provide empirical support for many of the key tenets of cooperative theory. Specifically, we find evidence that marketing cooperatives can address existing market failures, that marketing cooperatives can have advantages in high-quality product markets, and that over time, as a result of their success, marketing cooperatives may lead to lasting producer benefits even though they become obsolete due to nonmember free-riding.

Market Power in the World Oil Market: Evidence for an OPEC Cartel and an Oligopolistic Non-OPEC Fringe

This paper estimates a dynamic model of the world oil market and tests whether OPEC countries colluded and whether non-OPEC countries behaved oligopolistically over the period 1970-2004. Results of the analysis by decade support OPEC countries colluding as the dominant cartel producer and non-OPEC countries behaving as an oligopolistic fringe. The residual demand elasticity faced by OPEC is more elastic than the market demand elasticity, which is relatively inelastic. Market demand has become more inelastic over time over the period of study.

Modeling Ethanol Investment Decisions

This article reviews some of the papers my co-authors and I have written analyzing what factors affect the decision to invest in building new ethanol plants using a dynamic structural econometric model of the investment timing game. The results of our research will help determine which policies and factors can promote fuel-ethanol industry development. In Lin and Thome (Investment in corn-ethanol plants in the Midwestern United States: an analysis using reduced-form and structural models, Working paper, University of California at Davis, 2013), we estimate a model of the investment timing game in corn ethanol plants in the United States. This model follows my previous work estimating a structural econometric model of the multi-stage dynamic investment timing game in offshore petroleum production (Lin, 2013). In Lin and Yi (Ethanol plant investment in Canada: a structural model, Working paper, University of California at Davis, 2013; What factors affect the decision to invest in a fuel ethanol plant? a structural model of the ethanol investment timing game, Working paper, University of California at Davis, 2013), we estimate a model of the investment timing game in ethanol plants worldwide that allows for the choice among different feedstocks.

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of California’s Local Air Pollution Controls on Agricultural Sources

Air pollution has been recognized as a significant environmental problem in California since the early 20th century. Between 1905 and 1912, regulations were enacted by the city council of Los Angeles to regulate emissions [1]. As motor vehicle traffic increased, a new type of smog was observed and described: the “Los Angeles” or photochemical smog, as distinct from the “London” smog that resulted from coal combustion. Arie Haagen-Smit from Caltech characterized the chemistry of this smog and identified ozone as the principal oxidant in the early 1950’s. Meanwhile, the first air district in the U.S. was created in Los Angeles in 1947, and was later merged with other local districts in 1977 to form the South Coast Air Quality Management District [1]. Negative effects of air pollution have been extensively documented, and include impairment of human lung function, degradation of materials, and injury to plants. In addition to affecting human health, the high ambient ozone levels found in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley also cause yield reductions up to 30% for some crops [2]. In addition to having some of the nation’s most polluted air basins, California also has the nation’s most stringent set of state and local air quality standards. Although regulation has led to improvements in air quality [3], exceedances of air quality standards still take place. For example, between 1990 and 1998, the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin experienced an average of 97 days per year above the eight-hour ozone standard, while the Sacramento Valley Air Basin experienced an average of 30 days per year above the standard during the same time period [4]. Farming and livestock operations are significant sources of emissions in California, and bear the negative effects of specific air pollutants as well. Agriculture-related air pollution results from primary emissions from machinery and vehicles employed in production, chemical compounds used in the course of production, e.g. pesticides, as well as emissions from the agricultural systems themselves. For example, agricultural livestock emit nitrogen compounds such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and ammonia. Vehicles used in agricultural production emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NOx and carbon monoxide (CO) [5]. These emissions may lead to the formation of secondary air pollutants, such as ozone, that are deleterious to workers as well as crops [6].