Ca Trillo-Alvarez

Acute lung injury prediction score: derivation and validation in a population-based sample.

Early recognition of patients at high risk of acute lung injury (ALI) is critical for successful enrolment of patients in prevention strategies for this devastating syndrome. We aimed to develop and prospectively validate an ALI prediction score in a population-based sample of patients at risk. In a retrospective derivation cohort, predisposing conditions for ALI were identified at the time of hospital admission. The score was calculated based on the results of logistic regression analysis. Prospective validation was performed in an independent cohort of patients at risk identified at the time of hospital admission. In a derivation cohort of 409 patients with ALI risk factors, the lung injury prediction score discriminated patients who developed ALI from those who did not with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.89; Hosmer–Lemeshow p = 0.60). The performance was similar in a prospective validation cohort of 463 patients at risk of ALI (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.77–0.91; Hosmer–Lemeshow p = 0.88). ALI prediction scores identify patients at high risk for ALI before intensive care unit admission. If externally validated, this model will serve to define the population of patients at high risk for ALI in whom future mechanistic studies and ALI prevention trials will be conducted.

Epidemiology of critical care syndromes, organ failures, and life-support interventions in a suburban US community

BACKGROUND ICU services represent a significant and increasing proportion of medical care. Population-based epidemiologic studies are essential to inform physicians and policymakers about current and future ICU demands. We aimed to determine the incidence of critical care syndromes, organ failures, and life-support interventions in a defined US suburban community with unrestricted access to critical care services. METHODS This population-based observational cohort from January 1 to December 31, 2006, in Olmsted County, Minnesota, included all consecutive critically ill adult residents admitted to the ICU. Main outcomes were incidence of critical care syndromes, life-support interventions, and organ failures as defined by standard criteria. Incidences are reported per 100,000 population (95% CIs) and were age adjusted to the 2006 US population. RESULTS A total of 1,707 ICU admissions were identified from 1,461 patients. Incidences of critical care syndromes were respiratory failure, 430 (390-470); acute kidney injury, 290 (257-323); severe sepsis, 286 (253-319); all-cause shock, 194 (167-221); acute lung injury, 86 (68-105); all-cause coma, 43 (30-55); and overt disseminated intravascular coagulation, 18 (10-26). Incidence of mechanical ventilation was invasive, 310 (276-344); noninvasive, 180 (154-206); vasopressors and inotropes, 183(155-208). Renal replacement therapy incidence was 96 (77-116). Of the cohort, 1,330 patients (91%) survived to hospital discharge. Short- and long-term survival decreased by the number of failing organs. CONCLUSIONS In a suburban US community with high access to critical care services, cumulative incidences of critical care syndromes and life-support interventions were higher than previously reported. The results of this study have important implications for future planning of critical care delivery.

Towards the prevention of acute lung injury: a population based cohort study protocol

BackgroundAcute lung injury (ALI) is an example of a critical care syndrome with limited treatment options once the condition is fully established. Despite improved understanding of pathophysiology of ALI, the clinical impact has been limited to improvements in supportive treatment. On the other hand, little has been done on the prevention of ALI. Olmsted County, MN, geographically isolated from other urban areas offers the opportunity to study clinical pathogenesis of ALI in a search for potential prevention targets.Methods/DesignIn this population-based observational cohort study, the investigators identify patients at high risk of ALI using the prediction model applied within the first six hours of hospital admission. Using a validated system-wide electronic surveillance, Olmsted County patients at risk are followed until ALI, death or hospital discharge. Detailed in-hospital (second hit) exposures and meaningful short and long term outcomes (quality-adjusted survival) are compared between ALI cases and high risk controls matched by age, gender and probability of developing ALI. Time sensitive biospecimens are collected for collaborative research studies. Nested case control comparison of 500 patients who developed ALI with 500 matched controls will provide an adequate power to determine significant differences in common hospital exposures and outcomes between the two groups.DiscussionThis population-based observational cohort study will identify patients at high risk early in the course of disease, the burden of ALI in the community, and the potential targets for future prevention trials.

Alcohol consumption and development of acute respiratory distress syndrome: a population-based study.

This retrospective population-based study evaluated the effects of alcohol consumption on the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Alcohol consumption was quantified based on patient and/or family provided information at the time of hospital admission. ARDS was defined according to American-European consensus conference (AECC). From 1,422 critically ill Olmsted county residents, 1,357 had information about alcohol use in their medical records, 77 (6%) of whom developed ARDS. A history of significant alcohol consumption (more than two drinks per day) was reported in 97 (7%) of patients. When adjusted for underlying ARDS risk factors (aspiration, chemotherapy, high-risk surgery, pancreatitis, sepsis, shock), smoking, cirrhosis and gender, history of significant alcohol consumption was associated with increased risk of ARDS development (odds ratio 2.9, 95% CI 1.3–6.2). This population-based study confirmed that excessive alcohol consumption is associated with higher risk of ARDS.

Long Term Survival in Patients with Tracheostomy and Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation in Olmsted County, Minnesota

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of patients require prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV), which is associated with high morbidity and poor long-term survival, but there are few data regarding the incidence and outcome of PMV patients from a community perspective. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic medical records of adult Olmsted county, Minnesota, residents admitted to the intensive care units at the 2 Mayo Clinic Rochester hospitals from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2007, who underwent tracheostomy for PMV. RESULTS: Sixty-five patients, median age 68 years (interquartile range [IQR] 49–80 y), 39 male, underwent tracheostomy for PMV, resulting in an age-adjusted incidence of 13 (95% CI 10–17) per 100,000 patient-years at risk. The median number of days on mechanical ventilation was 24 days (IQR 18–37 d). Forty-six patients (71%) survived to hospital discharge, and 36 (55%) were alive at 1-year follow-up. After adjusting for age and baseline severity of illness, the presence of COPD was independently associated with 1-year mortality (hazard ratio 3.4, 95% CI 1.4–8.2%). CONCLUSIONS: There was a considerable incidence of tracheostomy for PMV. The presence of COPD was an independent predictor of 1-year mortality.