Caio L. N. Azevedo

BisGMA/TEGDMA ratio and filler content effects on shrinkage stress

OBJECTIVE To investigate the contributions of BisGMA:TEGDMA and filler content on polymerization stress, along with the influence of variables associated with stress development, namely, degree of conversion, reaction rate, shrinkage, elastic modulus and loss tangent for a series of experimental dental composites. METHODS Twenty formulations with BisGMA:TEGDMA ratios of 3:7, 4:6, 5:5, 6:4 and 7:3 and barium glass filler levels of 40, 50, 60 or 70wt% were studied. Polymerization stress was determined in a tensilometer, inserting the composite between acrylic rods fixed to clamps of a universal test machine and dividing the maximum load recorded by the rods cross-sectional area. Conversion and reaction rate were determined by infra-red spectroscopy. Shrinkage was measured by mercury dilatometer. Modulus was obtained by three-point bending. Loss tangent was determined by dynamic nanoindentation. Regression analyses were performed to estimate the effect of organic and inorganic contents on each studied variable, while a stepwise forward regression identified significant variables for polymerization stress. RESULTS All variables showed dependence on inorganic concentration and monomeric content. The resin matrix showed a stronger influence on polymerization stress, conversion and reaction rate, whereas filler fraction showed a stronger influence on shrinkage, modulus and loss tangent. Shrinkage and conversion were significantly related to polymerization stress. SIGNIFICANCE Both the inorganic filler concentration and monomeric content affect polymerization stress, but the stronger influence of the resin matrix suggests that it may be possible to reduce stress by modifying resin composition without sacrificing filler content. The main challenge is to develop formulations with low shrinkage without sacrificing degree of conversion.

Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution.

A Bayesian generalized multiple group IRT model with model-fit assessment tools

The multiple group IRT model (MGM) proposed by Bock and Zimowski (1997) provides a useful framework for analyzing item response data from clustered respondents. In the MGM, the selected groups of respondents are of specific interest such that group-specific population distributions need to be defined. The main goal is to explore the potentials of an MCMC estimation procedure and Bayesian model-fit tools for the MGM. We develop a full Gibbs sampling algorithm (FGSA) for estimation as well as a Metropolis-Hastings within Gibss sampling algorithm (MHWGS) in order to use non-conjugate priors. The FGSA is compared with Bilog-MG, which uses marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and marginal maximum a posteriori (MMAP) methods. That is; Bilog-MG provides maximum likelihood (ML) and expected a posteriori (EAP) estimates for both item and population parameters, and maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for the latent traits. We conclude that, in general, the results from our approach are slightly better than Bilog-MG. Besides a simultaneous MCMC estimation procedure, model-fit assessment tools are developed. Furthermore, the prior sensitivity is investigated with respect to the parameters of the latent population distributions. It will be shown that the FGSA provides a wide set of model-fit tools. The proposed model assessment tools can evaluate important model assumptions of (1) the item response function (IRF) and (2) the latent trait distributions. The utility of the proposed estimation and model-fit assessment methods will be shown using data from a longitudinal data study concerning first to fourth graders of sampled Brazilian public schools.

A multiple group item response theory model with centered skew-normal latent trait distributions under a Bayesian framework

Very often, in psychometric research, as in educational assessment, it is necessary to analyze item response from clustered respondents. The multiple group item response theory (IRT) model proposed by Bock and Zimowski [12] provides a useful framework for analyzing such type of data. In this model, the selected groups of respondents are of specific interest such that group-specific population distributions need to be defined. The usual assumption for parameter estimation in this model, which is that the latent traits are random variables following different symmetric normal distributions, has been questioned in many works found in the IRT literature. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, misleading inference can result. In this paper, we consider that the latent traits for each group follow different skew-normal distributions, under the centered parameterization. We named it skew multiple group IRT model. This modeling extends the works of Azevedo et al. [4], Bazán et al. [11] and Bock and Zimowski [12] (concerning the latent trait distribution). Our approach ensures that the model is identifiable. We propose and compare, concerning convergence issues, two Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms for parameter estimation. A simulation study was performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed model and the selected algorithm concerning convergence issues. Results reveal that the proposed algorithm recovers properly all model parameters. Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of negative asymmetry for some latent trait distributions.

Bayesian longitudinal item response modeling with restricted covariance pattern structures

Educational studies are often focused on growth in student performance and background variables that can explain developmental differences across examinees. To study educational progress, a flexible latent variable model is required to model individual differences in growth given longitudinal item response data, while accounting for time-heterogenous dependencies between measurements of student performance. Therefore, an item response theory model, to measure time-specific latent traits, is extended to model growth using the latent variable technology. Following Muthén (Learn Individ Differ 10:73–101, 1998) and Azevedo et al. (Comput Stat Data Anal 56:4399–4412, 2012b), among others, the mean structure of the model represents developmental change in student achievement. Restricted covariance pattern models are proposed to model the variance–covariance structure of the student achievements. The main advantage of the extension is its ability to describe and explain the type of time-heterogenous dependency between student achievements. An efficient MCMC algorithm is given that can handle identification rules and restricted parametric covariance structures. A reparameterization technique is used, where unrestricted model parameters are sampled and transformed to obtain MCMC samples under the implied restrictions. The study is motivated by a large-scale longitudinal research program of the Brazilian Federal government to improve the teaching quality and general structure of schools for primary education. It is shown that the growth in math achievement can be accurately measured when accounting for complex dependencies over grades using time-heterogenous covariances structures.

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353–365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R.B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362–1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis–Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271–275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis–Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146–178; R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342–366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599–607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Bayesian inference for sinh-normal/independent nonlinear regression models

ABSTRACT Sinh-normal/independent distributions are a class of symmetric heavy-tailed distributions that include the sinh-normal distribution as a special case, which has been used extensively in Birnbaum–Saunders regression models. Here, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in nonlinear regression models when Sinh-normal/independent distributions are assumed for the random errors term, and it provides a robust alternative to the sinh-normal nonlinear regression model. Bayesian mechanisms for parameter estimation, residual analysis and influence diagnostics are then developed, which extend the results of Farias and Lemonte [Bayesian inference for the Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression model, Stat. Methods Appl. 20 (2011), pp. 423-438] who used the Sinh-normal/independent distributions with known scale parameter. Some special cases, based on the sinh-Student-t (sinh-St), sinh-slash (sinh-SL) and sinh-contaminated normal (sinh-CN) distributions are discussed in detail. Two real datasets are finally analyzed to illustrate the developed procedures.

Estimation methods for multivariate Tobit confirmatory factor analysis

Tobit confirmatory factor analysis is particularly useful in analysis of multivariate data with censored information. Two methods for estimating multivariate Tobit confirmatory factor analysis models with covariates from a Bayesian and likelihood-based perspectives are proposed. In contrast with previous likelihood-based developments that consider Monte Carlo simulations for maximum likelihood estimation, an exact EM-type algorithm is proposed. Also, the estimation of the parameters via MCMC techniques by considering a hierarchical formulation of the model is explored. Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the q-divergence measure and model selection criteria is also developed and considered in the analysis of a real dataset related to the education assessment field. In addition, a simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed method with the traditional confirmatory factor analysis. The results show that both methods offer more precise inferences than the traditional confirmatory factor analysis, which ignores the information about the censoring threshold.

Multidimensional multiple group IRT models with skew normal latent trait distributions

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models are quite useful to analyze datasets involving multiple skills or latent traits, which occur in many applications. However, most of the works consider the usual multivariate (symmetric) normal distribution to model the latent traits and do not deal with the multiple group framework. Also, in general, the works consider a limited number of model fit assessment tools and do not investigate the measurement instrument dimensionality in a detailed way. When the assumption of normality of the latent traits distributions does not hold, misleading results and conclusions can be obtained. Our goal is to propose a MIRT multiple group model with multivariate skew normal distributions under the centered parameterization to model the distribution of the latent traits of each group, presenting simple and feasible conditions for model identification. Such an approach is more flexible than the usual multivariate (symmetric) normal one. In addition, a full Bayesian approach for parameter estimation, structural selection (model comparison and determination of the dimensionality of the measurement instrument) and model fit assessment are developed through Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The proposed tools are illustrated through the analysis of a real dataset related to the first stage of the University of Campinas 2013 admission exam.

Bayesian inference for quantum state tomography

ABSTRACT We present a Bayesian approach to the problem of estimating density matrices in quantum state tomography. A general framework is presented based on a suitable mathematical formulation, where a study of the convergence of the Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm is given, including a comparison with other estimation methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and linear inversion. This analysis indicates that our approach not only recovers the underlying parameters quite properly, but also produces physically acceptable punctual and interval estimates. A prior sensitive study was conducted indicating that when useful prior information is available and incorporated, more accurate results are obtained. This general framework, which is based on a reparameterization of the model, allows an easier choice of the prior and proposal distributions for the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm.