Caitlin E. Buck

IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP.

A new calibration curve for the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages has been constructed and internationally ratified to replace IntCal98, which extended from 0-24 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950). The new calibration data set for terrestrial samples extends from 0-26 cal kyr BP, but with much higher resolution beyond 11.4 cal kyr BP than IntCal98. Dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples cover the period from 0-12.4 cal kyr BP. Beyond the end of the tree rings, data from marine records (corals and foraminifera) are converted to the atmospheric equivalent with a site-specific marine reservoir correction to provide terrestrial calibration from 12.4-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a coherent statistical approach based on a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the 14C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are discussed here. The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed in brief, but details are presented in Hughen et al. (this issue a). We do not make a recommendation for calibration beyond 26 cal kyr BP at this time; however, potential calibration data sets are compared in another paper (van der Plicht et al., this issue).

Marine04 marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

New radiocarbon calibration curves, IntCal04 and Marine04, have been constructed and internationally rati- fied to replace the terrestrial and marine components of IntCal98. The new calibration data sets extend an additional 2000 yr, from 0-26 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950), and provide much higher resolution, greater precision, and more detailed structure than IntCal98. For the Marine04 curve, dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples, converted with a box diffusion model to marine mixed-layer ages, cover the period from 0-10.5 cal kyr BP. Beyond 10.5 cal kyr BP, high-res- olution marine data become available from foraminifera in varved sediments and U/Th-dated corals. The marine records are corrected with site-specific 14C reservoir age information to provide a single global marine mixed-layer calibration from 10.5-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the 14C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed here. The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are presented in detail in a companion paper by Reimer et al. (this issue). ABSTRACT. New radiocarbon calibration curves, IntCal04 and Marine04, have been constructed and internationally rati- fied to replace the terrestrial and marine components of IntCal98. The new calibration data sets extend an additional 2000 yr, from 0-26 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950), and provide much higher resolution, greater precision, and more detailed structure than IntCal98. For the Marine04 curve, dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples, converted with a box diffusion model to marine mixed-layer ages, cover the period from 0-10.5 cal kyr BP. Beyond 10.5 cal kyr BP, high-res- olution marine data become available from foraminifera in varved sediments and U/Th-dated corals. The marine records are corrected with site-specific 14C reservoir age information to provide a single global marine mixed-layer calibration from 10.5-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the 14C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed here. The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are presented in detail in a companion paper by Reimer et al. (this issue).

ShCal04 Southern Hemisphere Calibration, 0–11.0 Cal Kyr BP

Recent measurements on dendrochronologically-dated wood from the Southern Hemisphere have shown that there are differences between the structural form of the radiocarbon calibration curves from each hemisphere. Thus, it is desirable, when possible, to use calibration data obtained from secure dendrochronologically-dated wood from the corresponding hemisphere. In this paper, we outline the recent work and point the reader to the internationally recommended data set that should be used for future calibration of Southern Hemisphere (super 14) C dates.

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities: O'Hagan/Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.

Combining archaeological and radiocarbon information: a Bayesian approach to calibration

A recent and significant improvement in radiocarbon dating has been the increased ability of the radiocarbon laboratories to provide results combining precision with accuracy. This improvement has been accompanied by increasing recognition that the information must be expressed on the calendar, rather than on the radiocarbon, time-scale. Despite the attempts of Ottaway (1987) and Pearson (1987), archaeologists are not sufficiently aware of the statistical problems involved in the transformation from one scale to the other: ‘Some of the trouble lies in the ignorance of radiocarbon consumers; the many attempts to educate them can have only limited success when radiocarbon study depends on statistical concepts and methods far beyond the average archaeologist’s innumerate grasp’ (Chippindale 1990: 203).

Calibration of radiocarbon results pertaining to related archaeological events

With the advent of the high precision radiocarbon calibration curve there is an increasing demand from archaeologists for results, previously reported on the radiocarbon scale, to be expressed on the calendar scale. Furthermore, there is a general realization within the archaeological community that much more information can be derived from radiocarbon dating if the samples are taken from coherent, well-chosen contexts and if any available substantive archaeological information is included in the data analysis. This paper describes how the Bayesian approach to statistical data analysis can be used for the calibration of groups of radiocarbon results in situations where archaeological information is available a priori about the relationships between the contexts being dated. Recent innovations in the implementation of the Bayesian paradigm are used and the methodology is illustrated by the analysis of data arising from two archaeological excavations.

NotCal04; comparison/ calibration 14C records 26-50 cal kyr BP

The radiocarbon calibration curve IntCal04 extends back to 26 cal kyr BP. While several high-resolution records exist beyond this limit, these data sets exhibit discrepancies of up to several millennia. As a result, no calibration curve for the time range 26-50 cal kyr BP can be recommended as yet, but in this paper the IntCal04 working group compares the available data sets and offers a discussion of the information that they hold.

Looking forward through the past : identification of 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology

Summary 1. Priority question exercises are becoming an increasingly common tool to frame future agendas in conservation and ecological science. They are an effective way to identify research foci that advance the field and that also have high policy and conservation relevance. 2. To date there has been no coherent synthesis of key questions and priority research areas for palaeoecology, which combines biological, geochemical and molecular techniques in order to reconstruct past ecological and environmental systems on timescales from decades to millions of years. 3. We adapted a well-established methodology to identify 50 priority research questions in palaeoecology. Using a set of criteria designed to identify realistic and achievable research goals, we selected questions from a pool submitted by the international palaeoecology research community and relevant policy practitioners. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Accepted Article 4. The integration of online participation, both before and during the workshop, increased international engagement in question selection. 5. The questions selected are structured around six themes: human–environment interactions in the Anthropocene; biodiversity, conservation, and novel ecosystems; biodiversity over long timescales; ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycling; comparing, combining and synthesizing information from multiple records; and new developments in palaeoecology. 6. Future opportunities in palaeoecology are related to improved incorporation of uncertainty into reconstructions, an enhanced understanding of ecological and evolutionary dynamics and processes, and the continued application of long-term data for better-informed landscape management. 7. Synthesis Palaeoecology is a vibrant and thriving discipline and these 50 priority questions highlight its potential for addressing both pure (e.g. ecological and evolutionary, methodological) and applied (e.g. environmental and conservation) issues related to ecological science and global change.

Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash

Volcanic ash layers preserved within the geologic record represent precise time markers that correlate disparate depositional environments and enable the investigation of synchronous and/or asynchronous behaviors in Earth system and archaeological sciences. However, it is generally assumed that only exceptionally powerful events, such as supereruptions (≥450 km3 of ejecta as dense-rock equivalent; recurrence interval of ∼105 yr), distribute ash broadly enough to have an impact on human society, or allow us to address geologic, climatic, and cultural questions on an intercontinental scale. Here we use geochemical, age, and morphological evidence to show that the Alaskan White River Ash (eastern lobe; A.D. 833–850) correlates to the “AD860B” ash (A.D. 846–848) found in Greenland and northern Europe. These occurrences represent the distribution of an ash over 7000 km, linking marine, terrestrial, and ice-core records. Our results indicate that tephra from more moderate-size eruptions, with recurrence intervals of ∼100 yr, can have substantially greater distributions than previously thought, with direct implications for volcanic dispersal studies, correlation of widely distributed proxy records, and volcanic hazard assessment.

A bayesian approach to the estimation of radiocarbon calibration curves: The INTCAL09 methodology

This article presents a new approach to the construction of radiocarbon calibration curves. The Bayesian methodology was developed specifically to facilitate construction of the 2009 updates to the internationally agreed 14C calibration curves known as IntCal09 and Marine09. The curve estimation approach taken uses Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, specifically a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler, which offers improved flexibility and reliability over the approaches used in the past. In particular, the method allows accurate modeling of calibration data with 14C determinations that arise from material deposited over several consecutive calendar years and that exhibit complex uncertainty structures on their calendar date estimates (arising from methods such as wiggle-matching and varve counting).