Cameron Shaw

Fingolimod after natalizumab and the risk of short-term relapse

Objective: To determine early risk of relapse after switch from natalizumab to fingolimod; to compare the switch experience to that in patients switching from interferon-β/glatiramer acetate (IFN-β/GA) and those previously treatment naive; and to determine predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod. Methods: Data were obtained from the MSBase Registry. Relapse rates (RRs) for each patient group were compared using adjusted negative binomial regression. Survival analyses coupled with adjusted Cox regression were used to model predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod. Results: A total of 536 patients (natalizumab-fingolimod [n = 89]; IFN-β/GA-fingolimod [n = 350]; naive-fingolimod [n = 97]) were followed up for a median 10 months. In the natalizumab-fingolimod group, there was a small increase in RR on fingolimod (annualized RR [ARR] 0.38) relative to natalizumab (ARR 0.26; p = 0.002). RRs were generally low across all patient groups in the first 9 months on fingolimod (RR 0.001–0.13). However, 30% of patients with disease activity on natalizumab relapsed within the first 6 months on fingolimod. Independent predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod were the number of relapses in the prior 6 months (hazard ratio [HR] 1.59 per relapse; p = 0.002) and a gap in treatment of 2–4 months compared to no gap (HR 2.10; p = 0.041). Conclusions: RRs after switch to fingolimod were low in all patient groups. The strongest predictor of relapse on fingolimod was prior relapse activity. Based on our data, we recommend a maximum 2-month treatment gap for switches to fingolimod to decrease the hazard of relapse. Classification of evidence: This study provides Class IV evidence that RRs are not higher in patients with multiple sclerosis switching to fingolimod from natalizumab compared to those patients switching to fingolimod from other therapies.

Persistence on therapy and propensity matched outcome comparison of two subcutaneous interferon beta 1a dosages for multiple sclerosis

Objectives To compare treatment persistence between two dosages of interferon β-1a in a large observational multiple sclerosis registry and assess disease outcomes of first line MS treatment at these dosages using propensity scoring to adjust for baseline imbalance in disease characteristics. Methods Treatment discontinuations were evaluated in all patients within the MSBase registry who commenced interferon β-1a SC thrice weekly (n = 4678). Furthermore, we assessed 2-year clinical outcomes in 1220 patients treated with interferon β-1a in either dosage (22 µg or 44 µg) as their first disease modifying agent, matched on propensity score calculated from pre-treatment demographic and clinical variables. A subgroup analysis was performed on 456 matched patients who also had baseline MRI variables recorded. Results Overall, 4054 treatment discontinuations were recorded in 3059 patients. The patients receiving the lower interferon dosage were more likely to discontinue treatment than those with the higher dosage (25% vs. 20% annual probability of discontinuation, respectively). This was seen in discontinuations with reasons recorded as “lack of efficacy” (3.3% vs. 1.7%), “scheduled stop” (2.2% vs. 1.3%) or without the reason recorded (16.7% vs. 13.3% annual discontinuation rate, 22 µg vs. 44 µg dosage, respectively). Propensity score was determined by treating centre and disability (score without MRI parameters) or centre, sex and number of contrast-enhancing lesions (score including MRI parameters). No differences in clinical outcomes at two years (relapse rate, time relapse-free and disability) were observed between the matched patients treated with either of the interferon dosages. Conclusions Treatment discontinuations were more common in interferon β-1a 22 µg SC thrice weekly. However, 2-year clinical outcomes did not differ between patients receiving the different dosages, thus replicating in a registry dataset derived from “real-world” database the results of the pivotal randomised trial. Propensity score matching effectively minimised baseline covariate imbalance between two directly compared sub-populations from a large observational registry.

Sex as a determinant of relapse incidence and progressive course of multiple sclerosis

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10(-12)). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10(-12)). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.

The frequency of CSF oligoclonal banding in multiple sclerosis increases with latitude

Background: With the advent of MRI scanning, the value of lumbar puncture to assess oligoclonal band (OCB) statusfor the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) is increasingly uncertain. One major issue is that the reported frequency of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-restricted oligoclonal banding for the diagnosis of MS varies considerably in different studies. In addition, the relationship between OCB positivity and disease outcome remains uncertain, as reported studies are generally too small to assess comparative disability outcomes with sufficient power. Methods: In order to further investigate variation of OCB positivity in patients with MS, we utilized MSBase, a longitudinal, Web-based collaborative MS outcomes registry following clinical cohorts in several continents and latitudes. We also assessed whether OCB positivity affects long-term disability outcome. Results: A total of 13,242 patient records were obtained from 37 MS specialist centres in 19 different countries. OCB status was documented in 4481 (34%) patients and 80% of these were OCB positive. The presence of OCB was associated with degree of latitude (p = 0.02). Furthermore, the outcome of patients negative for CSF-specific OCB was significantly better in comparison to the OCB positive patients, as assessed by Expanded Disability Status Scale change (p < 0.001). Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that latitude could explain some of the inconsistencies in OCB status reported in different populations. The study confirms that OCB positivity in MS is associated with a worse long-term prognosis.

Seasonal variation of relapse rate in multiple sclerosis is latitude dependent

Previous studies assessing seasonal variation of relapse onset in multiple sclerosis have had conflicting results. Small relapse numbers, differing diagnostic criteria, and single region studies limit the generalizability of prior results. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is a temporal variation in onset of relapses in both hemispheres and to determine whether seasonal peak relapse probability varies with latitude.

Predictors and dynamics of postpartum relapses in women with multiple sclerosis

Background: Several studies have shown that pregnancy reduces multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses, which increase in the early postpartum period. Postpartum relapse risk has been predicted by pre-pregnancy disease activity in some studies. Objective: To re-examine effect of pregnancy on relapses using the large international MSBase Registry, examining predictors of early postpartum relapse. Methods: An observational case–control study was performed including pregnancies post-MS onset. Annualised relapse rate (ARR) and median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were compared for the 24 months pre-conception, pregnancy and 24 months postpartum periods. Clustered logistic regression was used to investigate predictors of early postpartum relapses. Results: The study included 893 pregnancies in 674 females with MS. ARR (standard error) pre-pregnancy was 0.32 (0.02), which fell to 0.13 (0.03) in the third trimester and rose to 0.61 (0.06) in the first three months postpartum. Median EDSS remained unchanged. Pre-conception ARR and disease-modifying treatment (DMT) predicted early postpartum relapse in a multivariable model. Conclusion: Results confirm a favourable effect on relapses as pregnancy proceeds, and an early postpartum peak. Pre-conception DMT exposure and low ARR were independently protective against postpartum relapse. This novel finding could provide clinicians with a strategy to minimise postpartum relapse risk in women with MS planning pregnancy.

Risk of relapse phenotype recurrence in multiple sclerosis

Objectives: The aim was to analyse risk of relapse phenotype recurrence in multiple sclerosis and to characterise the effect of demographic and clinical features on this phenotype. Methods: Information about relapses was collected using MSBase, an international observational registry. Associations between relapse phenotypes and history of similar relapses or patient characteristics were tested with multivariable logistic regression models. Tendency of relapse phenotypes to recur sequentially was assessed with principal component analysis. Results: Among 14,969 eligible patients (89,949 patient-years), 49,279 phenotypically characterised relapses were recorded. Visual and brainstem relapses occurred more frequently in early disease and in younger patients. Sensory relapses were more frequent in early or non-progressive disease. Pyramidal, sphincter and cerebellar relapses were more common in older patients and in progressive disease. Women presented more often with sensory or visual symptoms. Men were more prone to pyramidal, brainstem and cerebellar relapses. Importantly, relapse phenotype was predicted by the phenotypes of previous relapses. (OR = 1.8–5, p = 10-14). Sensory, visual and brainstem relapses showed better recovery than other relapse phenotypes. Relapse severity increased and the ability to recover decreased with age or more advanced disease. Conclusion: Relapse phenotype was associated with demographic and clinical characteristics, with phenotypic recurrence significantly more common than expected by chance.

The Australian Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Immunotherapy Study: A Prospective, Multicentre Study of Drug Utilisation Using the MSBase Platform

Objective To prospectively characterise treatment persistence and predictors of treatment discontinuation in an Australian relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) population. Methods Tertiary MS treatment centres participating in the MSBase registry prospectively assessed treatment utilisation, persistence, predictors of treatment discontinuation and switch rates. Multivariable survival analyses were used to compare treatment persistence between drugs and to identify predictors of treatment discontinuation. Results 1113 RRMS patients were studied. Patients persisted on their first disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for a median of 2.5 years. Treatment persistence on GA was shorter than on all IFNβ products (p<0.03). Younger age at treatment initiation and higher EDSS were predictive of DMT discontinuation. Patients persisted on subsequent DMTs, for 2.3 years. Patients receiving natalizumab (NAT) as a subsequent DMT persisted longer on treatment than those on IFNβ or GA (p<0.000). The primary reason for treatment discontinuation for any drug class was poor tolerability. Annualised switch or cessation rates were 9.5–12.5% for individual IFNβ products, 11.6% for GA and 4.4% for NAT. Conclusion This multicentre MS cohort study is the first to directly compare treatment persistence on IFNβ and GA to NAT. We report that treatment persistence in our Australian RRMS population is short, although patients receiving IFNβ as a first DMT persisted longer on treatment than those on GA. Additionally, patients receiving NAT as a subsequent DMT were more likely to persist on treatment than those switched to IFNβ or GA. EDSS and age at DMT initiation were predictive of DMT discontinuation. Treatment intolerance was the principal reason for treatment cessation.

Anxiety, depression and fatigue at 5‐year review following CNS demyelination

Anxiety and depression are common in multiple sclerosis (MS). We evaluated the prevalence and factors associated with anxiety, depression and fatigue at the 5‐year review of a longitudinal cohort study following a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination (FCD).

Predictors of disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome

To assess demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment exposure predictors of time to 3 or 12‐month confirmed disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early multiple sclerosis (MS).