Camilla Ferretti

Firm Size Dynamics in an Industrial District: The Mover-Stayer Model in Action

In the last decade, the District of Prato (an important industrial area in the neighborhood of Florence, Italy) suffered a deep shrinkage of exports and added value of the textile industry, the core of its economy. In this paper we aim to investigate if such a crisis entailed a firm downsizing (evaluated as number of employees) of the same industry and, possibly, of the overall economy of the District. For this purpose we use the Mover Stayer Model. Data are represented by two panels from ASIA-ISTAT data. The main results of the analysis are that: (1) the textile industry is affected by a relevant downsizing of the firm size; (2) such a process takes place through a slightly changed level of concentration; (3) the mentioned changes does not seem to spread to the overall economy.

A new mobility index for transition matrices

In this work we construct a mobility index able to grasp the prevailing direction in the evolution of a given set of statistical units. We consider the case of dynamics ruled by a transition matrix, whose states are based on an ordered economic variable (firm size or income, among others) such that the future position of an individual can be better or worse than the current one. The existing indices measure only the absolute value of mobility, without providing information about the main direction in the dynamics. We propose here a whole family of directional indices defined as functions of the transition matrix, so that their absolute value measures the intensity of mobility, and their sign (

Mobility as prevailing direction for Transition Matrices

+/-

Measuring mobility with entry and exit events

+/−) represents the prevailing direction towards improvement/worsening in the dynamics under study.

Pitfalls in labour market flows modeling: a Reappraisal

A new and powerful source of information concerning the Italian Labor Market is represented by C.OBB datasets, which record the kind of job contract (with its successive modifications) of all the workers in many Italian Provinces. By means of this information and focusing on the Province of Cremona, we analyze the mobility of employees among different kinds of job contracts (and unemployment also): in particular, from contracts characterized by modest packages of securities toward more structured working relations, ending with Unlimited Time Duration Contracts. The statistical tool used for this analysis is Continuous Time Mover-Stayer Model. Our analysis reveals low mobility from Limited Time Duration to Unlimited Time Duration contracts.