Candice J. Nelson

The Partisan Affinities of Independent ‘Leaners’

For almost a decade we have taken issue with the prevailing view of independent voters. We showed that Independents, as they were usually defined, had nothing in common, and in fact were more diverse than either Democrats or Republicans. Virtually no generalizations about Independents were correct, except by accident, because they comprise three very different kinds of people. Most Independents acknowledge that they are closer to one or the other party. The crux of our argument was that this ‘leaning’ should outweigh an initial claim of independence when deciding how to classify respondents. Our most striking finding was that leaners vote like outright partisans. We interpreted this as evidence that most professed Independents are not neutral between the parties, but are nearly as partisan as avowed Democrats and Republicans. This conclusion had major implications for both mainstream and revisionist views of American politics, all the more so because of the growing numbers of Independents, who accounted for 38 per cent of the adult population by 1978, thus matching the Democrats and leaving Republicans in a distant third place.

The Effect of Incumbency on Voting in Congressional Elections, 1964-1974

The institutionalization of the House of Representatives early in the twentieth century marked the beginning of incumbency as an enduring characteristic of congressional elections. Between 1956 and 1976, 94 percent of all House members who sought reelection were reelected.1 Moreover, during this same period the number of incumbents involved in close re-election contests sharply declined.2 In 1976 only 16 percent of all House incumbents were re-elected with less than 60 percent of the vote, and only 9 percent were re-elected with less than 55 percent of the vote.3 As members of Congress have become increasingly invulnerable to electoral defeat, the advantage of incumbency in congressional elections has received greater scrutiny. Various studies have attempted to assess both the electoral advantage which incumbents possess and the causes of such advantage.4 However, there has been very little examination of incumbency in relation

The money chase : congressional campaign finance reform

The amount of money needed to run a competitive congressional campaign is staggering, with special interests playing a central role in raising these funds. Also of concern is the declining competitiveness of House elections. And while recognition of the need to reform campaign financing is widespread, partisan and House/Senate differences over what these changes should be have complicated legislative efforts.Almost

Independent Leaners as Policy Partisans: An Examination of Party Identification and Policy Views

450 million was spent in both the 1986 and 1988 congressional campaigns, much of it coming from wealthy contributors and political action committees (PACs). Increasing criticism of the current system will undoubtedly force Congress to keep campaign finance reform on its legislative agenda.Using public opinion, election and campaign spending data, extensive interviews, and a knowledge of practical politics, Magleby and Nelson examine the central issues in the campaign financing debate: the cost of congressional campaigns, financial participation by the political parties and PACs, existing and proposed limits on contributions and expenditures, public financing, and the role of the Federal Election Commission. They propose a comprehensive package of reforms that will undoubtedly serve as a guide for future legislation.

The Myth of the Independent Voter

Abstract Previous research has shown that Independents who lean towards the Democratic or Republican parties exhibit voting behavior similar to outright partisans. Less attention has been paid to the policy positions of Independent leaners. In this article we compare the policy positions of Independent leaners, Strong and not very strong Democrats and Republicans, and Pure Independents on five policy issues: the 2010 Affordable Care Act, the 2009 stimulus bill, the war in Iraq, abortion, and same sex marriage. On all five issues, Independent leaners are policy partisans; their positions are almost identical to the positions of outright partisans, and quite different from the views of Pure Independents. Analyses which consider Independents as one monolithic block are just as erroneous on policy issues as they are on political behavior.