Carey Goh

Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention

Abstract This paper presents the use of time series SARIMA and MARIMA with interventions in forecasting tourism demand using ten arrival series for Hong Kong. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests indicated that all the series were seasonal nonstationary. Significant interventions such as relaxation of the issuance of out-bound visitors visas, the Asian financial crisis, the handover, and the bird flu epidemic were all empirically identified with significant test results and expected signs. The forecasts obtained using models that capture stochastic nonstationary seasonality and interventions, SARIMA and MARIMA with intervention analysis, are compared with other eight time series models and were found to have the highest accuracy.

Incorporating the rough sets theory into travel demand analysis

Abstract This research integrates the rough sets theory into tourism demand analysis. Originated from the area of Artificial Intelligence, the rough sets theory was introduced to reveal important structures and to classify objects. A rough sets approach can capture useful information from a set of raw hybrid data and discover knowledge from the data in a form of decision rules. This makes the rough sets approach a useful classification and pattern recognition technique. Because of its ability to accommodate hybrid data and its algorithms without rigorous theoretical and statistical assumptions, the theory could complement the orthodox demand framework. This paper introduces a new rough sets approach for deriving rules from an Information Table of tourist arrivals. The induced rules were able to forecast change in demand with 87% accuracy.

The Methodological Progress of Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Review of Related Literature

ABSTRACT Research on modeling the estimation and forecasting of tourism demand has evolved with increasing sophistication and improved quality. In this study, 155 research papers published between 1995 and 2009 were identified and were classified into three main groups according to the methods and techniques adopted—an econometric-based approach, time series techniques, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. It appears that the more advanced methods such as cointegration, error correction model, time varying parameter model, and their combinations with systems of equations produce better results in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also discuss the implications and suggest future directions of tourism research techniques and methods.

A spatial–temporal analysis of hotels in urban tourism destination

Abstract This study investigates the spatial associations of urban tourism phenomena by using GIS and statistical methods to examine the relationships between hotels and land use types, attractions, transportation facilities, and the economic variables of the tertiary planning units in which the hotels are located. Hong Kong is used as an example. The study first introduces the spatial characteristics of hotels and attractions development in Hong Kong. A geographical information system is then used to map hotels and investigate the characteristics of the land use, attractions, and transport facilities around hotels. The spatial relationships are then analyzed with a set of logistic regression models. The results reveal that commercial land type and the number of attractions around hotels are significantly related to the distribution of upper-grade hotels in Hong Kong. The determinants vary over time and the spatial structure changes accordingly. The analysis is important theoretically as it enriches the methodologies for analyzing the relationships between hotels and urban structure, and for conceptualizing and identifying tourism functional zones. It is important for practitioners as it provides useful information for selecting sites for hotels.

Does social identity affect residents’ attitude toward tourism development?: An evidence from the relaxation of the individual visit scheme

Purpose – The aim of this study is to examine the roles of social identity and perceived cultural distance in forming the attitude of Hong Kong residents toward the relaxation of the individual visit scheme (IVS). Design/methodology/approach – Face-to-face interviews with local Hong Kong residents were conducted. A total of 24 respondents’ interviews were qualified for qualitative analysis using the snowball sampling technique. Findings – The perceived positive and negative impacts, social identity and perceived cultural distance of Hong Kong residents were important in explaining their attitude toward tourism development. Perceived cultural distance influenced both the perceived negative impacts and social identity of residents, which, in turn, affected their attitude toward mainland Chinese tourists and tourism development. Research limitations/implications – The sample size for the interviews was relatively small; however, it was acceptable for qualitative studies. Practical implications – First, the Hong Kong Government should enhance civic education among mainland Chinese tourists to reduce their cultural conflicts with Hong Kong residents. Second, the Hong Kong Government should enhance national education among Hong Kong residents to mitigate the negative influence of the relaxation of the IVS. Originality/value – This study sheds light on the roles of perceived cultural distance and social identity in the attitude of residents toward tourism development, thus narrowing research gaps. Moreover, the current study applies an intercultural-interaction perspective, social identity theory, common in-group identity theory and social distance theory to understand resident attitude toward tourism development.

Effect of Tourism on Balanced Regional Development: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis in Coastal and Inland China

This article aims to examine whether tourism can promote or hinder balanced regional development (BRD) in China. Unlike previous studies that mostly employ simple descriptive analysis, this study empirically analyzes the effects of tourism on BRD, especially on regional economic disparity within and between inland and coastal areas, by using the conditional convergence model of Barro and Sala-i-Martin. Results indicate that tourism development in China has a positive effect on BRD. Nevertheless, inland area (less developed region) has faster conditional convergence than coastal area (developed region) because of the tourism development. In addition, tourism has a stronger positive effect on economic growth in inland area than in coastal area, which denotes that tourism development can reduce regional inequality in China.

Achieving Balanced Regional Development in China: Is Domestic or International Tourism More Efficacious?:

Many developing countries are now suffering from rather large regional development gaps. Can tourism promote balanced regional development (BRD) and so narrow such gaps? This study empirically examines and compares the impact of both international and domestic tourism on Chinas regional development using the Gini coefficient method and the Granger causality test. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of the total tourism industry is more unbalanced than that of the regional economy. However, the imbalance in the spatial distribution is decreasing more rapidly than the imbalance in the regional economy. The Gini coefficient decomposition analysis shows that declining tourism spatial distribution imbalances are mainly and increasingly caused by domestic tourism. Granger causality tests show that tourism development will promote BRD through domestic tourism rather than international tourism. Finally, the authors draw out the policy implications for Chinas tourism industry and BRD.

A Comparative Analysis of Domestic and International Tourism Spatial Distribution: Trends and Impacts

As one of the most important economic sectors in China, tourism must be supported in a way that will encourage balanced regional economic development. The spatial distribution of tourism should be evaluated to assess the role of growing tourism in regional economic inequality. Unlike previous studies that focus on international tourism, this paper compares the spatial distributions of international and domestic tourism by using the Mean Log Deviation decomposition method, within and between China’s three economic regions over the period from 1997 to 2010. The results show that, compared with regional economic distribution, imbalance in the spatial distribution of tourism is more pronounced. However, from a dynamic and comparative perspective, this paper asserts that tourism, especially domestic tourism, is a more effective instrument for China’s balanced regional economic development than international tourism.

An Analysis of Tourism Development in China From Urbanization Perspective

Abstract China has experienced rapid urbanization over recent decades. The tourism literature, however, has rarely explored this issue. This article examines the historical process of urbanization and tourism development, using time-series data of Guangdong Province in China for the period 1994–2010. Research results are based on a systematic analysis studying the relationship between tourism development and urbanization. Tourism development is measured by the total income generated by tourism. Urbanization has been operationalized by population, economic, geographic landscape, and sociocultural dimensions. This study suggests that urbanization, though generally increasing tourism development, does not affect all types of tourism development uniformly. The results show that urbanization is an important factor for domestic tourism development, but not for foreign tourism development in China. Therefore, policy-makers, while assessing the effect of urbanization on tourism development, should be cautioned on the different policy goals the province would want to achieve.

Is the Growth of Tourism-specialised Economies Sustainable? A Case Study of Sanya and Zhangjiajie in China

Despite the relatively high economic growth in tourism-specialised destinations, the long-term sustainability of such growth has rarely been studied. This paper investigates sustainable growth using Sanya and Zhangjiajie as two special cases and applies an accounting growth model to measure the contributions of different input factors and of the total factor productivity to economic growth. The economic growth of Sanya and Zhangjiajie is found to be capital-driven, with small contributions from the labour force and a negative contribution from the total factor productivity, which implies that extensive tourism specialisation cannot promote long-term economic growth.