Carl Heneghan

What is missing from descriptions of treatment in trials and reviews

Replicating non-pharmacological treatments in practice depends on how well they have been described in research studies

Self-monitoring of oral anticoagulation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Near-patient testing has made self-monitoring of anticoagulation with warfarin feasible, and several trials have suggested that such monitoring might be equal to or better than standard monitoring. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of all randomised controlled trials that assessed the effects of self-monitoring or self-management (self-testing and self-dosage) of anticoagulation compared with standard monitoring. METHODS We searched the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE to April 2005, and contacted manufacturers and authors of relevant studies. Outcomes analysed were: major haemorrhage, thromboembolic events, death, tests in range, minor haemorrhage, frequency of testing, and feasibility of self-monitoring. FINDINGS We identified 14 randomised trials of self-monitoring: pooled estimates showed significant reductions in thromboembolic events (odds ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.30-0.68), all-cause mortality (0.61, 0.38-0.98), and major haemorrhage (0.65, 0.42-0.99). Trials of combined self-monitoring and self-adjusted therapy showed significant reductions in thromboembolic events (0.27, 0.12-0.59) and death (0.37, 0.16-0.85), but not major haemorrhage (0.93, 0.42-2.05). No difference was noted in minor haemorrhage. 11 trials reported improvements in the mean proportion of international normalisation ratios in range. INTERPRETATION Self-management improves the quality of oral anticoagulation. Patients capable of self-monitoring and self-adjusting therapy have fewer thromboembolic events and lower mortality than those who self-monitor alone. However, self-monitoring is not feasible for all patients, and requires identification and education of suitable candidates.

Anticoagulation Control and Prediction of Adverse Events in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation A Systematic Review

Background—To date, there has been no systematic examination of the relationship between international normalized ratio (INR) control measurements and the prediction of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulation. Methods and Results—We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane through January 2008 for studies of atrial fibrillation patients receiving vitamin-K antagonists that reported INR control measures (percentage of time in therapeutic range [TTR] and percentage of INRs in range) and major hemorrhage and thromboembolic events. In total, 47 studies were included from 38 published articles. TTR ranged from 29% to 75%; percentage of INRs ranged from 34% to 84%. From studies reporting both measures, TTR significantly correlated with percentage of INRs in range (P<0.001). Randomized controlled trials had better INR control than retrospective studies (64.9% versus 56.4%; P=0.01). TTR negatively correlated with major hemorrhage (r=−0.59; P=0.002) and thromboembolic rates (r=−0.59; P=0.01). This effect was significant in retrospective studies (major hemorrhage, r=−0.78; P=0.006 and thromboembolic rate, r=−0.88; P=0.03) but not in randomized controlled trials (major hemorrhage, r=0.18; P=0.33 and thromboembolic rate, r=−0.61; P=0.07). For retrospective studies, a 6.9% improvement in the TTR significantly reduced major hemorrhage by 1 event per 100 patient-years of treatment (95% CI, 0.29 to 1.71 events). Conclusions—In atrial fibrillation patients receiving orally administered anticoagulation treatment, TTR and percentage of INRs in range effectively predict INR control. Data from retrospective studies support the use of TTR to accurately predict reductions in adverse events.

Normal ranges of heart rate and respiratory rate in children from birth to 18 years of age: a systematic review of observational studies.

BACKGROUND Although heart rate and respiratory rate in children are measured routinely in acute settings, current reference ranges are not based on evidence. We aimed to derive new centile charts for these vital signs and to compare these centiles with existing international ranges. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists for studies that reported heart rate or respiratory rate of healthy children between birth and 18 years of age. We used non-parametric kernel regression to create centile charts for heart rate and respiratory rate in relation to age. We compared existing reference ranges with those derived from our centile charts. FINDINGS We identified 69 studies with heart rate data for 143,346 children and respiratory rate data for 3881 children. Our centile charts show decline in respiratory rate from birth to early adolescence, with the steepest fall apparent in infants under 2 years of age; decreasing from a median of 44 breaths per min at birth to 26 breaths per min at 2 years. Heart rate shows a small peak at age 1 month. Median heart rate increases from 127 beats per min at birth to a maximum of 145 beats per min at about 1 month, before decreasing to 113 beats per min by 2 years of age. Comparison of our centile charts with existing published reference ranges for heart rate and respiratory rate show striking disagreement, with limits from published ranges frequently exceeding the 99th and 1st centiles, or crossing the median. INTERPRETATION Our evidence-based centile charts for children from birth to 18 years should help clinicians to update clinical and resuscitation guidelines. FUNDING National Institute for Health Research, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

A systematic review and meta-analysis: Probiotics in the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome

BackgroundIrritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) is a common chronic gastrointestinal disorder and the evidence for efficacy of most drug therapies in the treatment of IBS is weak. A popular alternative is probiotics, which have been used in several conditions. including IBS. Probiotics are live microbial food supplements.The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials study was to evaluate the efficacy of probiotics in alleviating symptoms in patients with irritable bowel syndrome. We searched Ovid versions of MEDLINE (1950–2007), EMBASE (1980–2007), CINAHL (1982–2007), AMED (1985–2007), the Cochrane library and hand searched retrieved papers.ResultsWe identified 14 randomized placebo controlled trials. Combined data suggested a modest improvement in overall symptoms after several weeks of treatment: for dichotomous data from seven trials the overall Odds Ratio (OR) was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.2 to 2.2); for continuous data from six trials the standardised mean difference (SMD) was 0.23 (95% CI, 0.07 to 0.38).For individual symptoms the results differed between the pooled dichotomous and pooled continuous data. Trials varied in relation to the length of treatment (4–26 weeks), dose, organisms and strengths of probiotics used.ConclusionProbiotics may have a role in alleviating some of the symptoms of IBS, a condition for which currently evidence of efficacy of drug therapies is weak. However, as IBS is a condition that is chronic and usually intermittent longer term trials are recommended. Such research should focus on the type, optimal dose of probiotics and the subgroups of patients who are likely to benefit the most.

Cardiovascular disease risk in healthy children and its association with body mass index: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objectives To describe the association and its magnitude between body mass index category, sex, and cardiovascular disease risk parameters in school aged children in highly developed countries. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Quality of included studies assessed by an adapted version of the Cochrane Collaboration’s risk of bias assessment tool. Results of included studies in meta-analysis were pooled and analysed by Review Manager version 5.1. Data sources Embase, PubMed, EBSCOHost’s cumulative index to nursing and allied health literature, and the Web of Science databases for papers published between January 2000 and December 2011. Review methods Healthy children aged 5 to 15 in highly developed countries enrolled in studies done after 1990 and using prospective or retrospective cohort, cross sectional, case-control, or randomised clinical trial designs in school, outpatient, or community settings. Included studies had to report an objective measure of weight and at least one prespecified risk parameter for cardiovascular disease. Results We included 63 studies of 49 220 children. Studies reported a worsening of risk parameters for cardiovascular disease in overweight and obese participants. Compared with normal weight children, systolic blood pressure was higher by 4.54 mm Hg (99% confidence interval 2.44 to 6.64; n=12 169, eight studies) in overweight children, and by 7.49 mm Hg (3.36 to 11.62; n=8074, 15 studies) in obese children. We found similar associations between groups in diastolic and 24 h ambulatory systolic blood pressure. Obesity adversely affected concentrations of all blood lipids; total cholesterol and triglycerides were 0.15 mmol/L (0.04 to 0.25, n=5072) and 0.26 mmol/L (0.13 to 0.39, n=5138) higher in obese children, respectively. Fasting insulin and insulin resistance were significantly higher in obese participants but not in overweight participants. Obese children had a significant increase in left ventricular mass of 19.12 g (12.66 to 25.59, n=223), compared with normal weight children. Conclusion Having a body mass index outside the normal range significantly worsens risk parameters for cardiovascular disease in school aged children. This effect, already substantial in overweight children, increases in obesity and could be larger than previously thought. There is a need to establish whether acceptable parameter cut-off levels not considering weight are a valid measure of risk in modern children and whether methods used in their study and reporting should be standardised.

Self-monitoring of oral anticoagulation: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND Uptake of self-testing and self-management of oral anticoagulation [corrected] has remained inconsistent, despite good evidence of their effectiveness. To clarify the value of self-monitoring of oral anticoagulation, we did a meta-analysis of individual patient data addressing several important gaps in the evidence, including an estimate of the effect on time to death, first major haemorrhage, and thromboembolism. METHODS We searched Ovid versions of Embase (1980-2009) and Medline (1966-2009), limiting searches to randomised trials with a maximally sensitive strategy. We approached all authors of included trials and requested individual patient data: primary outcomes were time to death, first major haemorrhage, and first thromboembolic event. We did prespecified subgroup analyses according to age, type of control-group care (anticoagulation-clinic care vs primary care), self-testing alone versus self-management, and sex. We analysed patients with mechanical heart valves or atrial fibrillation separately. We used a random-effect model method to calculate pooled hazard ratios and did tests for interaction and heterogeneity, and calculated a time-specific number needed to treat. FINDINGS Of 1357 abstracts, we included 11 trials with data for 6417 participants and 12,800 person-years of follow-up. We reported a significant reduction in thromboembolic events in the self-monitoring group (hazard ratio 0·51; 95% CI 0·31-0·85) but not for major haemorrhagic events (0·88, 0·74-1·06) or death (0·82, 0·62-1·09). Participants younger than 55 years showed a striking reduction in thrombotic events (hazard ratio 0·33, 95% CI 0·17-0·66), as did participants with mechanical heart valve (0·52, 0·35-0·77). Analysis of major outcomes in the very elderly (age ≥85 years, n=99) showed no significant adverse effects of the intervention for all outcomes. INTERPRETATION Our analysis showed that self-monitoring and self-management of oral coagulation is a safe option for suitable patients of all ages. Patients should also be offered the option to self-manage their disease with suitable health-care support as back-up. FUNDING UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Technology Assessment Programme, UK NIHR National School for Primary Care Research.

Relative effectiveness of clinic and home blood pressure monitoring compared with ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in diagnosis of hypertension: Systematic review

Objective To determine the relative accuracy of clinic measurements and home blood pressure monitoring compared with ambulatory blood pressure monitoring as a reference standard for the diagnosis of hypertension. Design Systematic review with meta-analysis with hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic models. Methodological quality was appraised, including evidence of validation of blood pressure measurement equipment. Data sources Medline (from 1966), Embase (from 1980), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, DARE, Medion, ARIF, and TRIP up to May 2010. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Eligible studies examined diagnosis of hypertension in adults of all ages using home and/or clinic blood pressure measurement compared with those made using ambulatory monitoring that clearly defined thresholds to diagnose hypertension. Results The 20 eligible studies used various thresholds for the diagnosis of hypertension, and only seven studies (clinic) and three studies (home) could be directly compared with ambulatory monitoring. Compared with ambulatory monitoring thresholds of 135/85 mm Hg, clinic measurements over 140/90 mm Hg had mean sensitivity and specificity of 74.6% (95% confidence interval 60.7% to 84.8%) and 74.6% (47.9% to 90.4%), respectively, whereas home measurements over 135/85 mm Hg had mean sensitivity and specificity of 85.7% (78.0% to 91.0%) and 62.4% (48.0% to 75.0%). Conclusions Neither clinic nor home measurement had sufficient sensitivity or specificity to be recommended as a single diagnostic test. If ambulatory monitoring is taken as the reference standard, then treatment decisions based on clinic or home blood pressure alone might result in substantial overdiagnosis. Ambulatory monitoring before the start of lifelong drug treatment might lead to more appropriate targeting of treatment, particularly around the diagnostic threshold.

Cost-effectiveness of options for the diagnosis of high blood pressure in primary care: A modelling study

BACKGROUND The diagnosis of hypertension has traditionally been based on blood-pressure measurements in the clinic, but home and ambulatory measurements better correlate with cardiovascular outcome, and ambulatory monitoring is more accurate than both clinic and home monitoring in diagnosing hypertension. We aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of different diagnostic strategies for hypertension. METHODS We did a Markov model-based probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis. We used a hypothetical primary-care population aged 40 years or older with a screening blood-pressure measurement greater than 140/90 mm Hg and risk-factor prevalence equivalent to the general population. We compared three diagnostic strategies-further blood pressure measurement in the clinic, at home, and with an ambulatory monitor-in terms of lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years, and cost-effectiveness. FINDINGS Ambulatory monitoring was the most cost-effective strategy for the diagnosis of hypertension for men and women of all ages. It was cost-saving for all groups (from -£56 [95% CI -105 to -10] in men aged 75 years to -£323 [-389 to -222] in women aged 40 years) and resulted in more quality-adjusted life years for men and women older than 50 years (from 0·006 [0·000 to 0·015] for women aged 60 years to 0·022 [0·012 to 0·035] for men aged 70 years). This finding was robust when assessed with a wide range of deterministic sensitivity analyses around the base case, but was sensitive if home monitoring was judged to have equal test performance to ambulatory monitoring or if treatment was judged effective irrespective of whether an individual was hypertensive. INTERPRETATION Ambulatory monitoring as a diagnostic strategy for hypertension after an initial raised reading in the clinic would reduce misdiagnosis and save costs. Additional costs from ambulatory monitoring are counterbalanced by cost savings from better targeted treatment. Ambulatory monitoring is recommended for most patients before the start of antihypertensive drugs. FUNDING National Institute for Health Research and the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence.

Anticoagulation Control and Prediction of Adverse Events in Patients With Atrial FibrillationCLINICAL PERSPECTIVE

Background—To date, there has been no systematic examination of the relationship between international normalized ratio (INR) control measurements and the prediction of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulation. Methods and Results—We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane through January 2008 for studies of atrial fibrillation patients receiving vitamin-K antagonists that reported INR control measures (percentage of time in therapeutic range [TTR] and percentage of INRs in range) and major hemorrhage and thromboembolic events. In total, 47 studies were included from 38 published articles. TTR ranged from 29% to 75%; percentage of INRs ranged from 34% to 84%. From studies reporting both measures, TTR significantly correlated with percentage of INRs in range (P<0.001). Randomized controlled trials had better INR control than retrospective studies (64.9% versus 56.4%; P=0.01). TTR negatively correlated with major hemorrhage (r=−0.59; P=0.002) and thromboembolic rates (r=−0.59; P=0.01). This effect was significant in retrospective studies (major hemorrhage, r=−0.78; P=0.006 and thromboembolic rate, r=−0.88; P=0.03) but not in randomized controlled trials (major hemorrhage, r=0.18; P=0.33 and thromboembolic rate, r=−0.61; P=0.07). For retrospective studies, a 6.9% improvement in the TTR significantly reduced major hemorrhage by 1 event per 100 patient-years of treatment (95% CI, 0.29 to 1.71 events). Conclusions—In atrial fibrillation patients receiving orally administered anticoagulation treatment, TTR and percentage of INRs in range effectively predict INR control. Data from retrospective studies support the use of TTR to accurately predict reductions in adverse events.