Carl J. Bowser

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON AQUATIC SYSTEMS: LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES AND PRECAMBRIAN SHIELD REGION

The region studied includes the Laurentian Great Lakes and a diversity of smaller glacial lakes, streams and wetlands south of permanent permafrost and towards the southern extent of Wisconsin glaciation. We emphasize lakes and quantitative implications. The region is warmer and wetter than it has been over most of the last 12000 years. Since 1911 observed air temperatures have increased by about 0.118C per decade in spring and 0.068C in winter; annual precipitation has increased by about 2.1% per decade. Ice thaw phenologies since the 1850s indicate a late winter warming of about 2.58C. In future scenarios for a doubled CO2 climate, air temperature increases in summer and winter and precipitation decreases (summer) in western Ontario but increases (winter) in western Ontario, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Such changes in climate have altered and would further alter hydrological and other physical features of lakes. Warmer climates, i.e. 2 CO2 climates, would lower net basin water supplies, stream flows and water levels owing to increased evaporation in excess of precipitation. Water levels have been responsive to drought and future scenarios for the Great Lakes simulate levels 0. 2t o 2 .5 m lower. Human adaptation to such changes is expensive. Warmer climates would decrease the spatial extent of ice cover on the Great Lakes; small lakes, especially to the south, would no longer freeze over every year. Temperature simulations for stratified lakes are 1‐78C warmer for surface waters, and 68C cooler to 88C warmer for deep waters. Thermocline depth would change (4 m shallower to 3.5 m deeper) with warmer climates alone; deepening owing to increases in light penetration would occur with reduced input of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from dryer catchments. Dissolved oxygen would decrease below the thermocline. These physical changes would in turn aAect the phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and fishes. Annual phytoplankton production may increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected. Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500‐600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond diAerently, as do lakes of diAerent depth or productivity. DiAerences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause diAerent responses. Climate change eAects interact strongly with eAects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation.

The contribution of evaporation from the Great Lakes to the continental atmosphere: estimate based on stable isotope data

The isotopic composition of precipitation and river runoff in the vicinity of the North American Great Lakes is characterized by a higher deuterium-excess value than observed in the advecting air masses. It is suggested that this indicates that evaporated moisture from the surface waters is mixed with the atmosphere waters. A preliminary estimate of the atmospheric water balance during summer and autumn indicates that between 4.6%–15.7% of the atmospheric water content downwind from the Great Lakes is derived from lake evaporation during summer.

Early diagenesis in sediments from the eastern equatorial Pacific, I. Pore water nutrient and carbonate results

Interstitial waters were extracted from cores at three locations in the eastern equatorial Pacific and analyzed for nutrients, dissolved carbonate species, Mn and Fe. From the depth variation in pore water chemistry, we infer that organic matter oxidation reactions occur with depth in the following sequence: O2 reduction, NO3− and MnO2 reduction, and then ferric iron reduction. From NO3− results we infer that O2 is largely or totally consumed within the top few centimeters of sediment. NO3− is completely reduced at a sediment depth of 20 cm at a site near the crest of the East Pacific Rise, but is preserved at levels of 20–30 μmol/kg at 40 cm depth at a Guatemala Basin site. We have calculated the alkalinity for pore water samples assuming ions diffuse according to relative ionic diffusion coefficients, that the stoichiometry of organic matter oxidation reactions is that of “Redfield” organic matter, and that the pore waters are saturated throughout with respect to CaCO3. The measured alkalinity increase is only about half of the predicted value. The difference is probably a result of either enhanced mixing of the pore water in the top few centimeters of sediments by biological or physical processes, or the occurrence of an inorganic reaction which consumes alkalinity. At depths of oxygen and nitrate reduction in the sediments, the ion concentration product of CaCO3 is the same, within the analytical error, as the solubility product of Ingle et al. [34] at 1 atm and 4°C. This result indicates CaCO3 resaturation on pressure change during coring. Where pore water Mn concentrations become measurable, the ion concentration product increases, indicating either supersaturation with respect to calcite or that another phase is controlling the carbonate solubility.

Groundwater chemical evolution in a sandy silicate aquifer in northern Wisconsin: 1. Patterns and rates of change

Patterns and rates of chemical evolution of groundwater in a sandy silicate aquifer were determined by detailed analysis of groundwater velocity and chemistry along short (120 m) flow paths. Groundwater enters the aquifer mainly as seepage from a dilute lake and evolves chemically under open-CO{sub 2} conditions for at least 8 years before discharging to another lake. Spatial trends in the aquifer are evident for calcium, magnesium, silicon, sodium, CO{sub 2}, alkalinity, pH, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. The kinetics of silicate mineral dissolution regulates additions of calcium, magnesium, and alkalinity to the groundwater, causing them to increase steadily along flow paths at about 12 {mu}mol L{sup {minus}1} yr{sup {minus}1} (Ca), 6 {mu}mol L{sup {minus}1} yr{sup {minus}1} (Mg), and 39 {mu}eg L{sup {minus}1} yr{sup {minus}1} (alkalinity) respectively, for at least 3-5 years. Silicon and sodium increase by 41 {mu}mol L{sup {minus}1} yr{sup {minus}1} and 13 {mu}mol L{sup {minus}1} yr{sup {minus}1} respectively for about 3 years, then level off as the groundwater approaches saturation with respect to kaolinite and smectite.

Ground Water as a Silica Source for Diatom Production in a Precipitation-Dominated Lake

The short-term, seasonal input of ground water to a small, precipitation-dominated oligotrophic lake in northern Wisconsin amounts to less than 10 percent of the annual water budget of the lake but accounts for nearly all the external silica loading. Silica is a necessary nutrient for diatoms. A large spring diatom bloom occurs coincident with high silica inputs from ground water when other possible silica sources are low. The mass budgets of ground water and silica in the lake system demonstrate the importance of ground-water solute inputs to the lake.

Lead-210 and pollen geochronologies on Lake Superior sediments

Abstract Rates of sedimentation in two Lake Superior deposits were determined by both ragweed pollen and 210Pb geochronologies. The former yields an average rate over the time since the first appearance of enhanced concentrations of the pollen as a consequence of human settlement. Sedimentation rates derived on these two bases can be brought into accord if the first appearance of ragweed pollen in the sediments was around 1830 and if the sedimentation rates have been uniform over the past century.

Spatial and temporal patterns in the hydrogeochemistry of a poor fen in northern Wisconsin

We studied the factors causing spatial and temporal patterning of interstitial water chemistry in Crystal Bog, a 7 ha northern Wisconsin kettle-hole peatland. Over the course of the snow-free season Crystal Bog exhibited spatial and temporal patterns in chemistry, especially hydrogen-ion, dissolved organic carbon, and specific conductance. The peatland contains a 0.5 ha pond that has water more dilute than the interstitial water of the surrounding peatland. The direction of groundwater flow between the lake and the peatland was seasonally dependent. In the spring and early summer, flow was from the lake into the peatland, especially on the eastern side of the lake. This flow resulted in a plume of relatively dilute surface interstitial water in the peatland. In mid and late summer direction of groundwater flow was from the peatland into the lake and the dilute plume was reduced in areal extent. By fall the direction of water flow was again from the lake to the peatland.The spatial and temporal heterogeneity in water chemistry produced by the seasonal variation in the direction of horizontal water flow was substantial. Minimum and maximum observed concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the interstitial water of the peatland, for example, differed by more than a factor of three, and pH ranged between 3.8 and 5.0. Correlations of DOC with anion deficit and hydrogen ion concentration and experiments of photo-oxidation of water samples showed that organic acids were the primary cause of acidity in the peatland. Specific conductance was highly correlated with DOC, probably because of DOCs correlation with the very conductive hydrogen ion. In Crystal Bog it was possible to use the relatively simple measure of specific conductance to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of the more difficult to determine DOC.

Enhanced dispersion in groundwater caused by temporal changes in recharge rate and lake levels

Dispersion of solutes in groundwater is caused mainly by spatial variation in aquifer properties (i.e., heterogeneity) but additional dispersion can be induced by temporal fluctuations in the flow field. We studied dispersion of an oxygen isotope plume in an aquifer in northern Wisconsin, where significant fluctuations in the velocity field are caused by temporal changes in recharge rate and lake levels. The enhanced vertical spreading caused by these transient effects was quantified by tracking pathlines for approximately 32 years of simulated time in a transient cross-sectional model of the groundwater flow system. In this system heterogeneity, fluctuations in recharge rate, and distance from the transient boundary stresses have a significant influence on the vertical transverse dispersion of the plume, while dispersion caused by fluctuations in lake levels alone have a relatively small effect.

Temporal and Spatial Variability as Neglected Ecosystem Properties: Lessons Learned From 12 North American Ecosystems

Evaluating and monitoring the “health” of large-scale systems will require new and innovative approaches. One such approach is to look for ecological signals in the structure of ecological variability observed in space and time. Such variability is sometimes considered something to minimize by clever sampling design, but may in itself contain interesting ecological information (Kratz et al. 1991). In fact, much of ecology can be considered an attempt to understand the patterns of spatial and temporal variability that occur in nature and the processes that lead to these patterns. Despite widespread interest in patterns of variation there have been relatively few attempts to describe comprehensively the temporal and spatial variation exhibited by ecological parameters. As a result, we have no general laws that allow us to predict die relative magnitude of temporal and spatial variability of different types of parameters across the full diversity of ecological systems. Even within single ecosystems, understanding of the interplay between temporal and spatial variability is lacking. For example, Lewis (1978) noted that despite a large literature, the relation between temporal and spatial variability in plankton distribution within a lake is not well understood. Matthews (1990) makes a similar point regarding fish communities in streams.

The magnetic spherules in sediments of lake Mendota, Wisconsin

Abstract Magnetic microspherical particles which occur in the bottom muds of Lake Mendota have been analysed chemically and mineralogically. The data suggest that these spherules are flue products derived from industrial and domestic activities and are being supplied to the lake either through the action of washing the atmosphere or as the detrital load of the influent streams and urban runoff. These particles are apparently unaffected by diagenetic changes and since the chronological pattern of the lake sedimentation is well documented, the distribution of these microspherical particles has been used to evaluate the role of man in the trophic evolution of the lake.