Carl-Johan Dalgaard

On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth

This paper takes a fresh look at three issues in the aid effectiveness debate. First, we assess the theoretical case for foreign aid. Using an endogenous growth version of the standard overlapping generations model, we show that aid can be an effective policy tool in spurring growth in poor countries. This model also furnishes a theoretical foundation for the approach taken in many empirical studies. Second, we demonstrate that cross-country data, which underpin traditional cross-section based conclusions about the aid-growth link, are fully consistent with the positive evidence on aid effectiveness that emerge from recent panel-based regressions. Third, we reexamine the case for policy-based conditionality. Our empirical analysis suggests that aid is generally effective, even in “bad” environments. However, the degree to which aid enhances growth depends on climate-related circumstances.

On Aid, Growth and Good Policies

This study provides a critical analysis of the growth regressions in Burnside and Dollar [2000]. First, we analyse the relationship between aid and government expenditure in a modified neo-classical growth model. One of the main results of the analysis is that while good policies spur growths they may at the same time reduce the effectiveness of foreign aid. Second, we show that the econometric results in Burnside and Dollar emphasising the crucial role of interaction between aid and good policies in the growth process are fragile, as they are extremely data dependent. Finally, we demonstrate that the Burnside and Dollar data lend support to the idea that the association between aid and growth can be approximated by decreasing returns to aid. This finding conforms well to regression results in other recent studies.

Is Declining Productivity Inevitable

Fertility has been declining on all continents for the last couple of decades and this development is expected to continue in the future. Prevailing innovation-based growth theories imply, as a consequence of scale effects from the size of population, that such demographic changes will lead to a major slowdown in productivity growth. In this paper we challenge this pessimistic view of the future. By allowing for endogenous human capital in a basic R&D driven growth model we develop a theory of scale-invariant endogenous growth according to which population growth is neither necessary nor conductive for economic growth.

On the measurement of σ-convergence

Abstract We demonstrate that two popular measures of inequality related to the discussion of σ-convergence lead to different conclusions when used on data from Penn World Table. The reason is that the measures assign different weights to individual countries’ growth performance.

Dual Economies and International Total Factor Productivity Differences: Channelling the Impact from Institutions, Trade, and Geography

This paper provides a framework that decomposes aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) into a component reflecting relative efficiency across sectors, and another component that reflects the absolute level of efficiency. A development accounting analysis suggests that as much as 85% of the international variation in aggregate TFP can be attributed to variation in relative efficiency across sectors. Estimation results show that recent findings highlighting the importance of strong protection of property rights, financial development and geographical advantage for the level of TFP, can be explained by their impact on relative efficiency.

Optimal Aging and Death: Understanding the Preston Curve

The present study examines whether the Preston curve reflects a causal impact of income on longevity or, for example, factors correlated with both income and life expectancy. In order to understand the Preston curve better, we develop a model of optimal intertemporal consumption in which the representative consumer is subject to physiological aging. In modeling aging we draw on recent research in the fields of biology and medicine. The speed of the aging process, and thus the time of death, are endogenously determined by optimal health investments. We calibrate the model to US data and proceed to show that the model accounts for nearly 80% of the cross-country differences in life expectancy that the Preston curve captures.

Dual Economies and International Total Factor Productivity Differences

This paper shows that a significant part of measured total factor productivity (TFP) differences across countries is attributable not to technological factors that affect the entire economy neutrally, but rather, to variations in the structural composition of economies. In particular, the allocation of scarce inputs between agriculture and non-agriculture is important. We provide a framework which maps the composition of the economy to measured aggregate TFP. A decomposition analysis suggests that as much as 85 percent of the international variation in TFP can be attributed to the composition of output. Estimation exercises indicate that recent findings of the conduciveness of good institutions, and, to some extent trade, on levels of TFP, may be thus explained.

The History Augmented Solow Model

Unified growth theory predicts that the timing of the fertility transition is a key determinant of contemporary comparative development, as it marks the onset of the take-off to sustained growth. Neoclassical growth theory presupposes a take-off, and explains comparative development by variations in (subsequent) investment rates. The present analysis integrates these two perspectives empirically, and shows that they together constitute a powerful predictive tool vis-a-vis contemporary income differences.

The Return to Foreign Aid

Abstract We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate of return on public capital.

Endogenous Growth: A Knife Edge or the Razor's Edge?*

According to much of the recent growth literature the dramatic worldwide fertility decline currently taking place should ultimately lead to global economic stagnation. This pessimistic prediction is not shared by the original innovation-based growth literature. However, this strand of literature has in recent year been criticized for resting on implausible knife-edge assumptions and for being inconsistent with available evidence. In this paper, we argue that this conclusion is unwarranted.