Carlos A. Lozano

Self-generation of Electricity, Assessment and Optimization Under the New Support Schemes in Colombia

This paper propose a method to evaluate a electricity project self-generation with renewable energy sources under the new Colombian normative framework and it includes the uncertainty than characterized this type of projects. An economic optimization model was designed to evaluate the self-generation project management; the cash discount flow method is implemented with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). A Radial Basis Function Network with causal variables (historic and forecast) was used for modeling the forward price and MCS for the system generation and the output of the economic model. The case study that was developed in shopping centers considering the possibilities of electricity generation surplus export and, response demand programs. The applicability of the proposed economic model is shown, through which the scenarios in which the project is viable are determined.

Multicriteria Hybrid Method - ROA, for the choice of generation of renewable sources: case study in shopping centers

In the actual context in which commercial industries need to achieve greater competitiveness through their processes, efficiency is required in the management of electricity. Commercial buildings need solutions that are adequate to their environment and that would mean economic benefits. Given the case in which a commercial building self-generates electricity from renewable energy sources (RES), methods are required for allowing evaluation of alternative sources for generation, taking into account both the RES and methods characteristic uncertainties, which are involved in the process of technology selection. This paper proposes a hybrid method composed by technics of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), the Theory Real Option Analysis (ROA), the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and the Binomial Method (BM), to select the most adequate technologies for electricity self-generation in Shopping Centers (SCs); it takes into account economic, environmental, technological and technical criteria, within the Colombian regulatory framework. The case study was based on real data for SCs in three different Colombian cities with different meteorological conditions. It was demonstrated that taken into account the real options, the photovoltaic technologies are viable projects to be implemented in the commercial sector. The study is a conceptual contribution and it proposes a methodology for improving the understanding of the complex process of decision making with its application in the evaluation of RES technologies, considering the incentives and the implicit real options in the regulatory framework of a region or a country.

Portafolio para Auto-Generación de Electricidad con Fuentes Renovables en Edificios Comerciales

Resumen El objetivo de este trabajo es conformar un portafolio optimo para la auto-generacion de electricidad con fuentes de energia renovables (FER) en edificios comerciales con base en la caracterizacion del consumidor, la incertidumbre de las FER, la normatividad de Colombia y las opciones reales del proyecto. Se diseno una metodologia de optimizacion que comienza con la seleccion de las alternativas FER, utilizando metodos multicriterio. La evaluacion economica de las alternativas se realizo con el metodo flujo de caja descontado. La flexibilidad del valor presente del proyecto se definio con la Teoria de Opciones Reales y el portafolio optimo se calculo a traves de la maximizacion del valor presente del proyecto. El caso de estudio se desarrollo en un centro comercial concluyendose que las energias renovables son viables cuando se incluyen las opciones reales. Los retornos se incrementan con la optimizacion hasta en un dos mil trescientos por ciento.