Carlos Bethencourt

On the Living Arrangements of Elderly Widows

Between 1970 and 1990, the share of elderly widows living alone grew by 23.2% in the United States, whereas those living with their children decreased by a similar amount. We pose a variety of models for determining the living arrangements in which living together increases consumption because of economies of scale and may also provide utility directly. We estimate these models using the 1970 data and obtain an excellent fit. The estimated models predict that changes in the incomes of both the widow and her offspring generate three-quarters of the increase in the number of widows living alone.

On the Political Complementarity Between Health Care and Social Security

The dramatic rise in the US social security and public health expenditure is only partially explained by the demographic trend. We suggest that the political complementarity between these two programmes induced a multiplicative response to the ageing process. Public health care increases the political constituency in favour of social security, and vice versa. Specifically, public health decreases the longevity differential between low and high-income individuals, therefore rising the retirement period and the total pension benefits of the former relatively to the latter. This effect, whose empirical relevance is confirmed by independent studies, increases the political support for social security among the low-income young. We show that in a political equilibrium of a two-dimensional majoritarian election, a voting majority of low-income young and all retirees supports a large welfare state. Its composition between public health and social security is determined by intermediate (median) income types, who favour a combination of the two programs, since public health increases their longevity enough to make social security more attractive.

The effect of public pensions on women's labor market participation over a full life cycle

Spousal and survivor pensions are two important provisions of the US Social Security pension system. In this paper, we assess the impact of these benefits on the female employment rate in the context of a full life‐cycle model in which households decide on female labor supply and savings. One important aspect of our model is that we allow for returns to labor market experience so that participation decisions affect not only current earnings and Social Security pension eligibility but also future earnings. We quantify the effect on female labor supply and on household inequality of (i) removing spousal benefit, (ii) removing both spousal and survivor pension benefits, and (iii) extending from 35 to 40 the number of periods of the working career that are considered when calculating the retired workers pension. We find that reforms (i) and (ii) significantly increase female employment throughout the life cycle, whereas reform (iii) has a very mild effect. The effect of (ii) on income inequality in older household is large, whereas the effect on consumption inequality is small. All three reforms have substantial effects on Social Security expenditure and fiscal revenues. Social Security Spousal and Survivor Benefits Womens Labor Market Participation D15 H55 J22 J24

Declining Predation During Development: A Feedback Process

Empirical evidence suggests that poorer countries have larger amounts of predation. We formulate a neoclassical growth model in which agents devote time to either produce or predate. When the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital is lower than one, the labour share rises with capital, reducing the incentive to predate and increasing the incentive to produce throughout the transition. Consequently, a feedback process between capital accumulation and predation arises, which amplifies income differences generated by differences in productivity. This paper helps to explain why differences between countries have remained stable and the key role that institutions play in development.

Asymmetric Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in the Eurozone

This study investigates the asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff in the Eurozone. Building upon the augmented Okun’s law framework, the relationships between unemployment and output cannot be correctly specified in the static linear, static asymmetric and dynamic linear regressions. By contrast, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is well-specified and in this case indicates that the nature of Okun’s law is asymmetric. For the Eurozone, the NARDL estimates demonstrate that labour markets quickly respond to cyclical outputs in a short period, while the adjustments towards new equilibrium become weak in the long run. Furthermore, the cross-sectional analysis of long run asymmetries indicates that government spending and trade balance are key factors affecting the asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff. Thus, these results seem to suggest that, in spite of the fact that member states lack monetary sovereignty, flexible application of fiscal reforms or labour market reforms could help to reduce asymmetric effects.