Carlos E. Ludeña

La economía del cambio climático en el Perú

Este estudio aborda como el cambio climatico afectaria la actividad economica nacional, evaluando las potenciales modificaciones en la disponibilidad de los recursos naturales y las actividades productivas mas sensibles a cambios en el clima (agricultura, ganaderia altoandina, mineria, energia hidroelectrica, turismo y pesca), tanto en terminos fisicos como sociales. Tambien se analizan dos sectores transversales, la infraestructura y la salud, que son condicionantes para el desempeno productivo. El citado documento es resultado de una investigacion a nivel de pais basada en la metodologia establecida en el Informe Stern (2007). Asi, mediante el uso de escenarios y modelos climaticos globales, los impactos economicos del calentamiento global en la economia del Peru se calculan como la diferencia entre el PBI con ausencia y presencia del cambio climatico, en un periodo de analisis que se extiende hasta el ano 2100. Ademas de caracterizar los principales impactos sectoriales, se identifican opciones de adaptacion y mitigacion que contribuyan al desarrollo sostenible del pais.

Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean and other world regions: An analysis of climatic effects, convergence and catch-up

This study estimates Climate Adjusted Total Factor Productivity (CATFP) for agriculture in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries, while also providing comparisons with several regions of the world. Climatic variability is introduced in Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF) models by including average annual maximum temperature, precipitation and its monthly intra-year standard deviations, and the number of rainy days. Climatic conditions have a negative impact on production becoming stronger at the end of the 2000s compared to earlier periods. An Error Correction Model is applied to investigate catch-up and convergence across LAC countries. Argentina defines the frontier in LAC and TFP convergence is found across all South American countries, Costa Rica, Mexico, Barbados and The Bahamas. Using IPCC 2014 scenarios, the study shows that climatic variability induces significant reductions in productivity (2.3% to 10.7%), over the 2013-2040 period. Estimated output losses due to climatic variability range from 9% to 20% in the LAC region depending on the scenario considered.

Agricultural productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and climatic effects

Total factor productivity (TFP) analysis has been the focus of a large number of methodological and empirical studies over the past several decades. One remarkable gap in this literature is the omission of climatic variables as regressors in the models used to derive TFP measures. The purpose of this paper is to narrow this gap by developing climate-adjusted (CA) TFP measures. We combine information from the Climatic Research Unit with Food and Agriculture Organization data for 28 Latin American and Caribbean countries over a 52-year period (1961–2012) to estimate random parameter stochastic production frontier (SPF) models. The goal is to investigate the impact of climatic variability on TFP. The estimated coefficients from the SPF models are used to construct a climatic effects index across countries and over time. The average annual variation in climatic conditions is stronger at the end of the 2000s compared to earlier periods. Climatic variability has a negative effect on production in 20 of the 28 LAC countries analyzed, and this is more severe over Central America and the Caribbean. The average reduction in output across the region attributable to climatic variables is between 0.02 and 22.7% over the last decade compared to the period 1961–1999. The estimated average annual growth rate of CATFP (0.69%) is consistently lower than TFP (1.08%), confirming the adverse impact of climatic variability on agricultural output and productivity in LAC. The results show considerable variability across countries, and this points to the importance of accounting for climatic effects in analyzing TFP.

Productivity and the Performance of Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: From the Lost Decade to the Commodity Boom

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Vulnerability indicators of adaptation to climate change and policy implications for investment projects

Relevant and appropriate indicators for vulnerability at both the local levels are significant for effective adaptation to climate change. The paper reviews the literature of these indicators, and explores this issue using a selected sample of development projects from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to assess the measurement of vulnerability. We find the importance of assessing vulnerability based on local indicators reflecting the characteristics of different sectors. The results of analyzing the IDB projects case studies suggest that projects should be designed from project inception to include more relevant indicators of measuring exposure and sensitivity besides adaptive capacity, depending on the attributes of projects. We show that relevant vulnerability indicators can be developed for projects based on existing information.

GTAP Regional Input-Output Data for Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic

In the interest of including additional countries from the Caribbean into the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database to support economic analysis on these countries, the Inter-American Development Bank commissioned the inclusion of Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic into version 8.2 (and 9) of the GTAP database. The document describes the process of transforming the original input-out and supply use tables of these four Caribbean countries into the GTAP format. Further details on the GTAP database may be found at www.gtap.org.

Impactos económicos del cambio climático en Colombia: especies nativas y biocomercio

Este documento analiza el efecto que tiene el cambio climatico sobre un conjunto de especies nativas de Colombia, medido en terminos de perdida o ganancia economica de las especies de bio-comercio, algunas especies de manglares y un polinizador natural. Usando modelos de nicho ecologico que revelan las probabilidades de ocurrencia de 17 especies para periodos tricentrales (2020-2049, 2040- 2069 y 2070-2099), y estimando el valor economico de cada una de ellas tomando en cuenta su rendimiento potencial a nivel nacional, su precio y distribucion (probabilidades de ocurrencia). Se encontro que las especies de uso mas favorecidas con el cambio climatico fueron totumo, jagua, prontoalivio y gualanday y entre las menos favorecidas esta balsamo de Tolu, encontrando un balance positivo para las especies de uso frente al cambio climatico para todos los escenarios evaluados. Las regiones donde estas especies se ven mas favorecidas son Andina y Orinoquia.

Central America - European Union Association Agreement: an assessment using general and partial equilibrium

After the United States, the European Union is the main trading partner of Central American countries (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua). Since October 2007, the countries that make up the Central American Common Market have been working towards concluding an Association Agreement with the European Union. In recent years, Central American countries have stepped up the process of trade opening, with each State signing free trade agreements with the United States.