Carlos Guerra

Mapping Soil Erosion Prevention Using an Ecosystem Service Modeling Framework for Integrated Land Management and Policy

Current spatially explicit approaches to map and assess ecosystem services are often grounded on unreliable proxy data based on land use/cover to derive ecosystem service indicators. These approaches fail to make a distinction between the actual service provision and the underlying ecosystem capacity to provide the service. We present an integrative conceptual framework to estimate the provision of soil erosion prevention by combining the structural impact of soil erosion and the social–ecological processes that allow for its mitigation. The framework was tested and illustrated in the Portel municipality in Southern Portugal, a Mediterranean silvo-pastoral system that is prone to desertification and soil degradation. The results show a clear difference in the spatial and temporal distribution of the capacity for ecosystem service provision and the actual ecosystem service provision. It also shows that although the average actual ecosystem service provision in the region is sufficient to mitigate the existing structural impact, vulnerable areas can be identified where significant soil losses are not mitigated at present. This becomes more significant when comparing different land management intensities. Considering these results, we argue that the general assumption that there is an almost direct relation between the capacity for ecosystem service provision of a given area and the actual ecosystem service provision is wrong. We also discuss how the framework presented here could be used to support land management and policy, and how it can be adapted for other regulating services.

Unfolding relations between land cover and farm management: high nature value assessment in complex silvo-pastoral systems

The high nature value (HNV) concept, proposed by the European Environment Agency, recognizes that specific farming systems support high biodiversity levels, mainly as a result of extensive management practices. The Portuguese montado is one of the most significant HNV systems in southern Europe. However, considering the great complexity characterizing these systems both in land management and in landscape structure, a specific context-oriented methodology to assess which montado areas are likely to be classified as HNV farmland is needed. In this sense, the aim of this study is to explore a methodological approach which makes it possible to assess land management pressures through land cover information on these complex silvo-pastoral systems. The proposed methodology was tested through a local case study in a montado area in southern Portugal, assessing the relation between management practices and a vegetation cover index. Results show that in similar montado areas different land management strategies varying in stocking density, but also in type of grazing animals and shrub control practices, configure different vegetation cycles. These results indicate there is a way to develop a straightforward methodology to assess the HNV value of Mediterranean silvo-pastoral systems based on land cover indicators. These would make it possible to assess the HNV of montado areas with direct and objective information and independent of farmer’s surveys or other farm-based data.

Cost‐effective monitoring of biological invasions under global change: a model‐based framework

1. Ecological monitoring programmes are designed to detect and measure changes in biodiversity and ecosystems. In the case of biological invasions, they can contribute to anticipating risks and adaptively managing invaders. However, monitoring is often expensive because large amounts of data might be needed to draw inferences. Thus, careful planning is required to ensure that monitoring goals are realistically achieved. 2. Species distribution models (SDMs) can provide estimates of suitable areas to invasion. Predictions from these models can be applied as inputs in optimization strategies seeking to identify the optimal extent of the networks of areas required for monitoring risk of invasion under current and future environmental conditions. A hierarchical framework is proposed herein that combines SDMs, scenario analysis and cost analyses to improve invasion assessments at regional and local scales. We illustrate the framework with Acacia dealbata Link. (Silver-wattle) in northern Portugal. The framework is general and applicable to any species. 3. We defined two types of monitoring networks focusing either on the regional-scale management of an invasion, or management focus within and around protected areas. For each one of these two schemes, we designed a hierarchical framework of spatial prioritization using different information layers (e.g. SDMs, habitat connectivity, protected areas). We compared the performance of each monitoring scheme against 100 randomly generated models. 4. In our case study, we found that protected areas will be increasingly exposed to invasion by A. dealbata due to climate change. Moreover, connectivity between suitable areas for A. dealbata is predicted to increase. Monitoring networks that we identify were more effective in detecting new invasions and less costly to management than randomly generated models. The most cost-efficient monitoring schemes require 18% less effort than the average networks across all of the 100 tested options. 5. Synthesis and applications. The proposed framework achieves cost-effective monitoring networks, enabling the interactive exploration of different solutions and the combination of quantitative information on network performance with orientations that are rarely incorporated in a decision support system. The framework brings invasion monitoring closer to European legislation and management needs while ensuring adaptability under rapid climate and environmental change.

A spatially explicit methodology for a priori estimation of field survey effort in environmental observation networks

When establishing environmental monitoring programmes, it crucial to make reliable cost estimates, especially where a field survey is involved. This paper presents a methodology for creating a spatial measure of a field survey effort (SE). A set of relevant variables affecting a SE (e.g. areas with rough terrain, or distant from the main road network) was classified using fuzzy sets and then combined to produce spatially explicit effort indicators, which were integrated to a single measure using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). To evaluate this approach and identify the limits for its application, three spatially nested case studies were used to test the spatial expression of SE and the scalable capacity of the method itself. The presented methodology could cope with variations in the scale and data resolution, retrieving a coherent estimate of SE across the different case studies. The presented methodology is therefore useful for (i) testing the network designs for sampling bias related to SE, (ii) comparing alternative sampling designs, (iii) assessing the sampling costs and (iv) supporting the human and logistical resource management.

Risco de cheia e inundação: exposição na área ribeirinha de Ponte de Lima

The hydrological regime modeling, flood risk assessment and flooded areas mapping become essential in local and regional planning, as well as in technical and political action-decision making. This study aims to examine the functioning of the river Lima basin, the historical incidence of flooding in the historic town of Ponte de Lima and the potential impacts, vulnerabilityand exposure on the human and natural environment as well as human adaptation to floods patterns.

GIS based land use planning and watershed monitoring as tools for sustainable development

The development of GIS based methodologies supports a program for monitoring the territorial dynamics that are occurring in the Estoraos rural watershed (NW Portugal). GIS integrates spatial databases from different research and development projects, with the purpose of understanding: (i) the relationships between land use processes and changes, and environmental management policies; (ii) the extent of environmental impacts due to forest fire as well as extending and intensifying agriculture; and (iii) the influences of natural conditions and human activities on water quality and ecosystem sustainability. The diversity of natural conditions and population dynamics, the (de)forestation, the expansion, density and typology of road networks, the processes of urbanization in the flood plain, and the rising turistic search from external actors, fundament the importance of a GIS based watershed monitoring program. These conditions and processes increase watershed management complexity, namely at a protected wetland in the bottom valley (regional protected landscape, site PTCON00020 of Natura Network 2000, and international RAMSAR site 1613) related to the structure of the landscape, and the quantity and quality of the water resources and the associated biodiversity. The challenges of sustainable land use and the growing quantity and quality of the available spatial databases, allow greater modelling capacity and data accessibility, facilitating public participation, and also aiding and better guiding political and technical actions.