Carlotta Sacerdote

Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)

BACKGROUND Ambient air pollution is suspected to cause lung cancer. We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in European populations. METHODS This prospective analysis of data obtained by the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects used data from 17 cohort studies based in nine European countries. Baseline addresses were geocoded and we assessed air pollution by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10), less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5), and between 2·5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2·5absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses. FINDINGS The 312 944 cohort members contributed 4 013 131 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 12·8 years), 2095 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed a statistically significant association between risk for lung cancer and PM10 (hazard ratio [HR] 1·22 [95% CI 1·03-1·45] per 10 μg/m(3)). For PM2·5 the HR was 1·18 (0·96-1·46) per 5 μg/m(3). The same increments of PM10 and PM2·5 were associated with HRs for adenocarcinomas of the lung of 1·51 (1·10-2·08) and 1·55 (1·05-2·29), respectively. An increase in road traffic of 4000 vehicle-km per day within 100 m of the residence was associated with an HR for lung cancer of 1·09 (0·99-1·21). The results showed no association between lung cancer and nitrogen oxides concentration (HR 1·01 [0·95-1·07] per 20 μg/m(3)) or traffic intensity on the nearest street (HR 1·00 [0·97-1·04] per 5000 vehicles per day). INTERPRETATION Particulate matter air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence in Europe. FUNDING European Communitys Seventh Framework Programme.

Body size and breast cancer risk: Findings from the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC)

The evidence for anthropometric factors influencing breast cancer risk is accumulating, but uncertainties remain concerning the role of fat distribution and potential effect modifiers. We used data from 73,542 premenopausal and 103,344 postmenopausal women from 9 European countries, taking part in the EPIC study. RRs from Cox regression models were calculated, using measured height, weight, BMI and waist and hip circumferences; categorized by cohort‐wide quintiles; and expressed as continuous variables, adjusted for study center, age and other risk factors. During 4.7 years of follow‐up, 1,879 incident invasive breast cancers were identified. In postmenopausal women, current HRT modified the body size–breast cancer association. Among nonusers, weight, BMI and hip circumference were positively associated with breast cancer risk (all ptrend ≤ 0.002); obese women (BMI > 30) had a 31% excess risk compared to women with BMI < 25. Among HRT users, body measures were inversely but nonsignificantly associated with breast cancer. Excess breast cancer risk with HRT was particularly evident among lean women. Pooled RRs per height increment of 5 cm were 1.05 (95% CI 1.00–1.16) in premenopausal and 1.10 (95% CI 1.05–1.16) in postmenopausal women. Among premenopausal women, hip circumference was the only other measure significantly related to breast cancer (ptrend = 0.03), after accounting for BMI. In postmenopausal women not taking exogenous hormones, general obesity is a significant predictor of breast cancer, while abdominal fat assessed as waist–hip ratio or waist circumference was not related to excess risk when adjusted for BMI. Among premenopausal women, weight and BMI showed nonsignificant inverse associations with breast cancer.

Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project

BACKGROUND Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. METHODS We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367,251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), less than 10 μm (PM10), and between 10 μm and 2.5 μm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buffer. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS The total study population consisted of 367,251 participants who contributed 5,118,039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29,076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 μg/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I(2) p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 μg/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 μg/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13). INTERPRETATION Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value. FUNDING European Communitys Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2011).

Sequence variant on 8q24 confers susceptibility to urinary bladder cancer

We conducted a genome-wide SNP association study on 1,803 urinary bladder cancer (UBC) cases and 34,336 controls from Iceland and The Netherlands and follow up studies in seven additional case-control groups (2,165 cases and 3,800 controls). The strongest association was observed with allele T of rs9642880 on chromosome 8q24, 30 kb upstream of MYC (allele-specific odds ratio (OR) = 1.22; P = 9.34 × 10−12). Approximately 20% of individuals of European ancestry are homozygous for rs9642880[T], and their estimated risk of developing UBC is 1.49 times that of noncarriers. No association was observed between UBC and the four 8q24 variants previously associated with prostate, colorectal and breast cancers, nor did rs9642880 associate with any of these three cancers. A weaker signal, but nonetheless of genome-wide significance, was captured by rs710521[A] located near TP63 on chromosome 3q28 (allele-specific OR = 1.19; P = 1. 15 × 10−7).

Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: Individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents.

Summary Background Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. Methods Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4–14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2. Findings All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0–25·0 kg/m2 (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98–1·02 for BMI 20·0–<22·5 kg/m2; 1·00, 0·99–1·01 for BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09–1·17 for BMI 18·5–<20·0 kg/m2; 1·51, 1·43–1·59 for BMI 15·0–<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07–1·08 for BMI 25·0–<27·5 kg/m2; 1·20, 1·18–1·22 for BMI 27·5–<30·0 kg/m2). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0–<35·0 kg/m2) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41–1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0–<40·0 kg/m2) was 1·94, 1·87–2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0–<60·0 kg/m2) was 2·76, 2·60–2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m2, mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34–1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26–1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34–1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27–1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m2) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47–1·56, for BMI measured at 35–49 years vs 1·21, 1·17–1·25, for BMI measured at 70–89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46–1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26–1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. Interpretation The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.

Fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of stomach and oesophagus adenocarcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-EURGAST).

It is considered that fruit and vegetable (F&V) protect against oesophagus and gastric cancer (GC). However, 2 recent meta‐analyses suggest that the strength of association on GC seems to be weaker for vegetables than for fruit and weaker in cohort than in case‐control studies. No evidence exists from cohort studies about adenocarcinoma of oesophagus (ACO). In 521,457 men and women participating in the EPIC cohort in 10 European countries, information of diet and lifestyle was collected at baseline. After an average of 6.5 years of follow‐up, a total of 330 GC and 65 ACO, confirmed and classified by a panel of pathologists, was used for the analysis. We examined the relation between F&V intake and GC and ACO. A calibration study in a sub‐sample was used to control diet measurement errors. In a sub‐sample of cases and a random sample of controls, antibodies against Helicobacter pylori (Hp) were measured and interactions with F&V were examined in a nested case‐control study. We observed no association with total vegetable intake or specific groups of vegetables and GC risk, except for the intestinal type, where a negative association is possible regarding total vegetable (calibrated HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.35–1.22 per 100 g increase) and onion and garlic intake (calibrated HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.38–1.29 per 10 g increase). No evidence of association between fresh fruit intake and GC risk was observed. We found a negative but non significant association between citrus fruit intake and the cardia site (calibrated HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.47–1.22 per 100 g increase) while no association was observed with the non‐cardia site. Regarding ACO, we found a non significant negative association for vegetable intake and for citrus intake (calibrated HRs 0.72; 95% CI 0.32–1.64 and 0.77; 95% CI 0.46–1.28 per 100 and 50 g increase, respectively). It seems that Hp infection does not modify the effect of F&V intake. Our study supports a possible protective role of vegetable intake in the intestinal type of GC and the ACO. Citrus fruit consumption may have a role in the protection against cardia GC and ACO.

Epigenome-wide association study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Turin) identifies novel genetic loci associated with smoking

A single cytosine-guanine dinucleotide (CpG) site within coagulation factor II (thrombin) receptor-like 3 (F2RL3) was recently found to be hypomethylated in peripheral blood genomic DNA from smokers compared with former and non-smokers. We performed two epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) nested in a prospective healthy cohort using the Illumina 450K Methylation Beadchip. The two populations consisted of matched pairs of healthy individuals (n = 374), of which half went on to develop breast or colon cancer. The association was analysed between methylation and smoking status, as well as cancer risk. In addition to the same locus in F2RL3, we report several loci that are hypomethylated in smokers compared with former and non-smokers, including an intragenic region of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor gene (AHRR; cg05575921, P = 2.31 × 10(-15); effect size = 14-17%), an intergenic CpG island on 2q37.1 (cg21566642, P = 3.73 × 10(-13); effect size = 12%) and a further intergenic region at 6p21.33 (cg06126421, P = 4.96 × 10(-11), effect size = 7-8%). Bisulphite pyrosequencing validated six loci in a further independent population of healthy individuals (n = 180). Methylation levels in AHRR were also significantly decreased (P < 0.001) and expression increased (P = 0.0047) in the lung tissue of current smokers compared with non-smokers. This was further validated in a mouse model of smoke exposure. We observed an association with breast cancer risk for the 2q37.1 locus (P = 0.003, adjusted for the smoking status), but not for the other loci associated with smoking. These data show that smoking has a direct effect on the epigenome in lung tissue, which is also detectable in peripheral blood DNA and may contribute to cancer risk.

The EPIC nutrient database project (ENDB): a first attempt to standardize nutrient databases across the 10 European countries participating in the EPIC study.

Objective:This paper describes the ad hoc methodological concepts and procedures developed to improve the comparability of Nutrient databases (NDBs) across the 10 European countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). This was required because there is currently no European reference NDB available.Design:A large network involving national compilers, nutritionists and experts on food chemistry and computer science was set up for the ‘EPIC Nutrient DataBase’ (ENDB) project. A total of 550–1500 foods derived from about 37 000 standardized EPIC 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDRS) were matched as closely as possible to foods available in the 10 national NDBs. The resulting national data sets (NDS) were then successively documented, standardized and evaluated according to common guidelines and using a DataBase Management System specifically designed for this project. The nutrient values of foods unavailable or not readily available in NDSs were approximated by recipe calculation, weighted averaging or adjustment for weight changes and vitamin/mineral losses, using common algorithms.Results:The final ENDB contains about 550–1500 foods depending on the country and 26 common components. Each component value was documented and standardized for unit, mode of expression, definition and chemical method of analysis, as far as possible. Furthermore, the overall completeness of NDSs was improved (⩾99%), particularly for β-carotene and vitamin E.Conclusion:The ENDB constitutes a first real attempt to improve the comparability of NDBs across European countries. This methodological work will provide a useful tool for nutritional research as well as end-user recommendations to improve NDBs in the future.

Type I and II Endometrial Cancers: Have They Different Risk Factors?

PURPOSE Endometrial cancers have long been divided into estrogen-dependent type I and the less common clinically aggressive estrogen-independent type II. Little is known about risk factors for type II tumors because most studies lack sufficient cases to study these much less common tumors separately. We examined whether so-called classical endometrial cancer risk factors also influence the risk of type II tumors. PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual-level data from 10 cohort and 14 case-control studies from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium were pooled. A total of 14,069 endometrial cancer cases and 35,312 controls were included. We classified endometrioid (n = 7,246), adenocarcinoma not otherwise specified (n = 4,830), and adenocarcinoma with squamous differentiation (n = 777) as type I tumors and serous (n = 508) and mixed cell (n = 346) as type II tumors. RESULTS Parity, oral contraceptive use, cigarette smoking, age at menarche, and diabetes were associated with type I and type II tumors to similar extents. Body mass index, however, had a greater effect on type I tumors than on type II tumors: odds ratio (OR) per 2 kg/m(2) increase was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.19 to 1.21) for type I and 1.12 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.14) for type II tumors (P heterogeneity < .0001). Risk factor patterns for high-grade endometrioid tumors and type II tumors were similar. CONCLUSION The results of this pooled analysis suggest that the two endometrial cancer types share many common etiologic factors. The etiology of type II tumors may, therefore, not be completely estrogen independent, as previously believed.

Differences in the prospective association between individual plasma phospholipid saturated fatty acids and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

Summary Background Conflicting evidence exists regarding the association between saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and type 2 diabetes. In this longitudinal case-cohort study, we aimed to investigate the prospective associations between objectively measured individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and incident type 2 diabetes in EPIC-InterAct participants. Methods The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study includes 12 403 people with incident type 2 diabetes and a representative subcohort of 16 154 individuals who were selected from a cohort of 340 234 European participants with 3·99 million person-years of follow-up (the EPIC study). Incident type 2 diabetes was ascertained until Dec 31, 2007, by a review of several sources of evidence. Gas chromatography was used to measure the distribution of fatty acids in plasma phospholipids (mol%); samples from people with type 2 diabetes and subcohort participants were processed in a random order by centre, and laboratory staff were masked to participant characteristics. We estimated country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for associations per SD of each SFA with incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression, which is weighted for case-cohort sampling, and pooled our findings using random-effects meta-analysis. Findings SFAs accounted for 46% of total plasma phospholipid fatty acids. In adjusted analyses, different individual SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposing directions. Even-chain SFAs that were measured (14:0 [myristic acid], 16:0 [palmitic acid], and 18:0 [stearic acid]) were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per SD difference: myristic acid 1·15 [95% CI 1·09–1·22], palmitic acid 1·26 [1·15–1·37], and stearic acid 1·06 [1·00–1·13]). By contrast, measured odd-chain SFAs (15:0 [pentadecanoic acid] and 17:0 [heptadecanoic acid]) were inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per 1 SD difference: 0·79 [0·73–0·85] for pentadecanoic acid and 0·67 [0·63–0·71] for heptadecanoic acid), as were measured longer-chain SFAs (20:0 [arachidic acid], 22:0 [behenic acid], 23:0 [tricosanoic acid], and 24:0 [lignoceric acid]), with HRs ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 (95% CIs ranging between 0·61 and 0·92). Our findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Interpretation Different individual plasma phospholipid SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposite directions, which suggests that SFAs are not homogeneous in their effects. Our findings emphasise the importance of the recognition of subtypes of these fatty acids. An improved understanding of differences in sources of individual SFAs from dietary intake versus endogenous metabolism is needed. Funding EU FP6 programme, Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Medical Research Council Human Nutrition Research, and Cambridge Lipidomics Biomarker Research Initiative.