Carly Tozer
University of Newcastle
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Publication
Featured researches published by Carly Tozer.
Nature Climate Change | 2018
Rebecca M. B. Harris; L.J. Beaumont; Tr Vance; Carly Tozer; Tomas Remenyi; Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick; Patrick J. Mitchell; A.B. Nicotra; Shayne McGregor; Nigel R. Andrew; M. Letnic; Michael R. Kearney; Thomas Wernberg; Lindsay B. Hutley; L.E. Chambers; Michael-Shawn Fletcher; M.R. Keatley; Clifford Woodward; Grant J. Williamson; Norman C. Duke; David M. J. S. Bowman
The interaction of gradual climate trends and extreme weather events since the turn of the century has triggered complex and, in some cases, catastrophic ecological responses around the world. We illustrate this using Australian examples within a press–pulse framework. Despite the Australian biota being adapted to high natural climate variability, recent combinations of climatic presses and pulses have led to population collapses, loss of relictual communities and shifts into novel ecosystems. These changes have been sudden and unpredictable, and may represent permanent transitions to new ecosystem states without adaptive management interventions. The press–pulse framework helps illuminate biological responses to climate change, grounds debate about suitable management interventions and highlights possible consequences of (non-) intervention.A press–pulse framework is used to understand the interactive ecological effects of gradual climate trends and extreme weather events. Australian case studies include population collapses, loss of relictual communities and novel ecosystems.
Computers & Geosciences | 2017
Jl Roberts; Mark A. J. Curran; Samuel Poynter; Andrew D. Moy; Tas D. van Ommen; Tr Vance; Carly Tozer; F Graham; Duncan A. Young; Ct Plummer; J. B. Pedro; Donald D. Blankenship; Martin J. Siegert
Estimation of correlation with appropriate uncertainty limits for scientific data that are potentially serially correlated is a common problem made seriously challenging especially when data are sampled unevenly in space and/or time. Here we present a new, robust method for estimating correlation with uncertainty limits between autocorrelated series that does not require either resampling or interpolation. The technique employs the Gaussian kernel method with a bootstrapping resampling approach to derive the probability density function and resulting uncertainties. The method is validated using an example from radar geophysics. Autocorrelation and error bounds are estimated for an airborne radio-echo profile of ice sheet thickness. The computed limits are robust when withholding 10%, 20%, and 50% of data. As a further example, the method is applied to two time-series of methanesulphonic acid in Antarctic ice cores from different sites. We show how the method allows evaluation of the significance of correlation where the signal-to-noise ratio is low and reveals that the two ice cores exhibit a significant common signal. HighlightsCorrelation confidence limits can be calculated for unevenly sampled data.Employs Gaussian kernel method used with bootstrapping resampling.Two different studies using highly autocorrelated data validates method.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 2011
Carly Tozer; Anthony S. Kiem; Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 2016
Carly Tozer; Tr Vance; Jl Roberts; Anthony S. Kiem; Mark A. J. Curran; Andrew D. Moy
Climate of The Past | 2016
Tr Vance; Jl Roberts; Andrew D. Moy; Mark A. J. Curran; Carly Tozer; Ailie J. E. Gallant; Nerilie J. Abram; Tas D. van Ommen; Duncan A. Young; Cyril Grima; D. D. Blankenship; Martin J. Siegert
The Cryosphere | 2016
Duncan A. Young; Jl Roberts; Catherine Ritz; Massimo Frezzotti; Enrica Quartini; Marie G. P. Cavitte; Carly Tozer; Daniel Steinhage; Stefano Urbini; Hugh F. J. Corr; Tas D. van Ommen; Donald D. Blankenship
International Journal of Climatology | 2017
Carly Tozer; Anthony S. Kiem
Climate Research | 2014
Carly Tozer; Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd; Anthony S. Kiem
International Journal of Climatology | 2017
Carly Tozer; Anthony S. Kiem; Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd
Journal of Hydrology | 2018
Carly Tozer; Anthony S. Kiem; Tr Vance; Jl Roberts; Mark A. J. Curran; Andrew D. Moy