Carmen D. Álvarez-Albelo

Explaining High Economic Growth in Small Tourism Countries with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper shows that tourism specialisation can help to explain the observed high growth rates of small countries. For this purpose, two models of growth and trade are constructed to represent the trade relations between two countries. One of the countries is large, rich, has an own source of sustained growth and produces a tradable capital good. The other is a small poor economy, which does not have an own engine of growth and produces tradable tourism services. The poor country exports tourism services to and imports capital goods from the rich economy. In one model tourism is a luxury good, while in the other the expenditure elasticity of tourism imports is unitary. Two main results are obtained. In the long run, the tourism country overcomes decreasing returns and permanently grows because its terms of trade continuously improve. Since the tourism sector is relatively less productive than the capital good sector, tourism services become relatively scarcer and hence more expensive than the capital good. Moreover, along the transition the growth rate of the tourism economy holds well above the one of the rich country for a long time. The growth rate differential between countries is particularly high when tourism is a luxury good. In this case, there is a faster increase in the tourism demand. As a result, investment of the small economy is boosted and its terms of trade highly improve.

The commons and anti-commons problems in the tourism economy

Countries specialised in tourism tend to face two problems with contradictory effects: the commons and the anti-commons, which lead to tourism over- and under-production, respectively. This paper develops a two-period model to analyse the joint effects of both problems on a small and remote tourism economy. Congestion and the complementariness between foreign transport and local tourism services are key features in this type of markets. As a result, direct selling and the presence of foreign tour-operators emerge as possible market arrangements with different implications in terms of welfare and public intervention. Four main results are obtained. First, in the direct selling situation the optimal policy depends on the relative importance of the problems. Second, the existence of tour-operators always leads to tourism over-production. Third, the presence of a single tour-operator does not solve the congestion problem. Lastly, the switch from several tour-operators to a single one is welfare reducing.

The economics and implications of moratoria on tourism accommodation development as a rejuvenation tool in mature tourism destinations

This paper fills a literature gap on the economic rationale and implications of moratoria on accommodation development in mature tourism destinations. Moratoria are government-led capacity controls, which reduce market competition and seek to create economic rents. The paper provides a comprehensive set of economic foundations justifying the enactment of moratoria in situations characterised by over-capacity, low profitability, little innovation, environmental damage, strategic behaviour and sectoral imbalances. It notes that the implementation of these controls could be related to regulatory capture, rent seeking and clientelism. While capacity controls can restrain tourism over-expansion and can help fix some of its undesirable consequences, they may lead to multiple and varied unforeseen effects on the rejuvenation process and on the rest of the economy, issues also addressed in the paper. Moratoria relate to the concept of de-growth, which is a highly contested area of discussion. A moratorium does not ensure renovation of private and public capital or maintain the natural environment. It may give rise to detrimental strategies by firms, opening up room for corruption. To be effective, a moratorium must be accompanied by complementary policies, besides being coherently embodied in a broader tourism and regional rejuvenation strategy.

Specialization in Luxury Goods, Productivity Gaps and the Rapid Growth of Small Tourism Countries:

This paper shows that specialization in luxury goods accounts for the remarkable growth performance of small tourism countries during recent decades. Two two-country models are constructed for this purpose. One country is large and rich and produces traded capital goods; the other is a small poor economy that produces traded tourism services. The models differ only in the luxury good nature of tourism. In both models, the tourism economy grows sustainably because its terms of trade improve continuously. This result is related to sectoral productivity gaps. Throughout the transition, the growth differential between the countries is significantly higher when tourism is a luxury good. In this case, there is a faster increase in the tourism imports of the rich economy. As a result, the terms of trade of the poor economy improve greatly and its investment is boosted.

The Transmission of Sustained Growth Through the Terms of Trade in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper develops a two-country model of endogenous growth and international trade in intermediate goods. In autarky just one of the economies enjoys sustained growth. The trade situation may be characterized by complete specialization of both countries, or by incomplete specialization of the growing economy. In either case, trade transmits perpetual growth to the stagnant economy because of the permanent improvements in its terms of trade. The existence of a non-reproducible factor in the growing economy is crucial to ensure propagation of growth. Moreover, under incomplete specialization countries converge in per capita income. This result relies on two assumptions. First, there must be a large enough share of world income to pay for the input in which the stagnant economy has comparative advantage. Second, all technologies producing intermediate goods should be equally intensive in the non-reproducible factor.This paper develops a two-country model of endogenous growth and international trade in intermediate goods. In autarky just one of the economies enjoys sustained growth. The trade situation may be characterized by complete specialization of both countries, or by incomplete specialization of the growing economy. In either case, trade transmits perpetual growth to the stagnant economy because of the permanent improvements in its terms of trade. The existence of a non-reproducible factor in the growing economy is crucial to ensure propagation of growth. Moreover, under incomplete specialization countries converge in per capita income. This result relies on two assumptions. First, there must be a large enough share of world income to pay for the input in which the stagnant economy has comparative advantage. Second, all technologies producing intermediate goods should be equally intensive in the non-reproducible factor.

Congestion and coordination problems in a tourism economy.

Tourism countries tend to face congestion externalities, which lead to over-production. Transport services produced in the countries of origin and tourism services provided at the destination are highly complementary, so these economies also tend to face coordination failures between firms, which result in under-production. Moreover, the presence of foreign firms poses the question of how much profit is retained by the destination. This paper analyses the joint effects of these problems on the destinations welfare, and the policies implemented to address them. Direct selling and bundling by foreign tour operators emerge as possible market arrangements. Four main results are obtained. First, in the direct selling situation the optimal policy depends on the relative importance of the problems. Second, tour operators always lead to over-production. Third, the presence of a single tour operator is not the solution to congestion. Finally, the switch from several tour operators to a single one is welfare reducing.

The International Trade as the Sole Engine of Growth for an Economy

Can international trade act as the sole engine of growth for an economy? If yes, what are the mechanisms through which trade operates in transmitting permanent growth? This paper answers these questions with two simple two-country models, in which only one country enjoys sustained growth in autarky. The models differ in the assumptions on technical change, which is either labour- or capital-augmenting. In both cases, the stagnant economy imports growth by trading. In the first model, growth is transmitted because of permanent increases in the trade volume. In the alternative framework, the stagnant economy imports sustained growth because its terms of trade permanently improve.

Endogenous versus exogenous efficiency units of labour for the quantitative study of social security: two examples

This paper explores the role of endogenous versus exogenous efficiency units of labour for the quantitative evaluation of the impact of pay-as-you-go Social Security on labour supply. Pension response to a population growth rate change is also studied. Two dynamic general equilibrium models are used: one with human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing, and a second with exogenous efficiency units of labour. The main differences in the results are the following: (a) the shift in the working time-age profile induced by the elimination of Social Security considerably differs in both models. The increase in average hours worked is 4% higher under human capital accumulation than in the alternative model; and (b) the pension falls by a similar percentage in both models when the population growth rate is set to zero. This occurs because the capital–labour ratio changes less under learning-by-doing than with exogenous efficiency units of labour.

Quality of Imports Relative to Exports, and the Transmission of Sustained Growth through the Terms of Trade

Abstract This paper shows that an economy can import sustained growth, in spite of not possessing mechanisms to absorb foreign knowledge. To do that, it develops a two-country model of exogenous growth with investment-specific technological change. In autarky, one country sustainably grows while the other economy remains stagnant. In the trade situation, the quality-adjusted terms of trade become increasingly favourable to the second economy, which results in the transmission of growth. The continuous improvement in the quality of imported capital goods relative to exported consumption goods is the reason why this occurs. Moreover, this mechanism leads to convergence in per capita income if trade involves incomplete specialisation.

Growing through trade in intermediate goods: the role of foreign growth and domestic tariffs

We show that pure Ricardian trade can account for the empirical evidence that domestic growth is more affected by foreign growth than by trade openness. To do this, we develop a two‐country model involving a backward economy that exchanges intermediate goods with a faster growing country. We obtain three main results regarding growth and welfare of the backward economy: (i) the growth‐enhancing comparative advantage is facilitated by faster foreign growth; (ii) the growth rate may be negatively affected or unaffected by a domestic tariff, while it is always positively impacted by foreign growth; and (iii) a domestic tariff could be welfare‐improving.