Carol W. Kohfeld

Urban Unemployment Drives Urban Crime

Burglary and robbery rates in St. Louis, Missouri, are investigated as functions of census unemployment levels taken in 1970 and 1980 for twelve yearly cross sections of crime rates, with all rates aggregated to the level of census tracts for analyses. The relationship of burglary and robbery rates to unemployment is found to be positive, and the interactive (logged) model is found to be the one most consistent with theory as well as the best predictive model. The magnitude of unemployment effects is large, and the policy implication is that urban areas fighting crime would benefit substantially from successfully targeted employment programs.

The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment in the Five Most Active Execution States: A Time Series Analysis:

This study examines the effect of the death penalty on the murder rate. A 50-year time series is employed for the period 1930-1980 for the five states with the largest number of executions during this period: Georgia, New York, Texas, California, and North Carolina. Taken together, these five states accounted for 40 percent of all the executions performed during this period. Incorporating a lag structure for the effect of executions, as well as several theoretically relevant explanatory variables for homicides, the study identifies no deterrent effect for executions. Several different policy-relevant analyses are performed, all with the same result. Neither the existence of the death penalty, its imposition, nor the level of imposition explains significant amounts of the variation in homicide rates in the 50-year period, 1930 to 1980.

Race, space, and turnout

Abstract Urban politics in St. Louis is driven by race. For several decades the city of St. Louis has been nearly evenly divided between blacks and whites. Other ethnic minorities have accounted for 2% or less of the population over this same period. The geographic distribution of race exhibits a high level of segregation — blacks on the North side, whites on the South side, and a mixture of whites and blacks in the central corridor between north and south. These racial enclaves behave quite differently in city politics and separating them for analysis provides additional purchase on the structure of electoral mobilization. Turnout in a Democratic primary election (1989) and a non-partisan School Board election (1991) are studied here with the same precinct coverage. Demographic covariates used in the analyses are taken from the Census (1990) and several measures were constructed by allocation from block groups, to blocks, and then back to the precinct level by means of a concordance between the blocks and the precincts. Geographic tools (maps and spatial correlograms) are used throughout and extensive use is made of graphic visualization of these data. The end results show that count models utilizing a small number of Census measures as predictors defend themselves well, provided that race is controlled systematically.

A deterrence study of the death penalty in Illinois, 1933-1980

Abstract The study analyzes the effect of executions and the death penalty on homicides in Illinois. A forty-eight year time series (1933–1980 inclusive) is used as the basis for this analysis. The first series of results are presented in a graph of executions and homicides by year. A second portion of the analysis compares the mean homicide rates for three time periods—years with executions, years when the death penalty was allowed but no executions were performed, and years in which the death penalty was abolished by the U.S. Supreme Court. No notable differences in homicide rates were observed for these three eras. Finally, a regression analysis was performed which included a lag structure and several relevant controls. The deterrence measure (executions) made no contribution to the variation in homicide rates. Thus, the authors conclude that there is no deterrent effect for the death penalty on homicides in Illinois.

St. Louis's Black-White Elections Products of Machine Factionalism and Polarization

This research combines electoral data by precinct with demographic data to demonstrate that race alone is not the determinant of at-large electoral outcomes in St. Louis. In St. Louis, a long history of machine factionalism affects the behavior of black and white politicians and influences when and under what conditions blacks vote for whites and whites vote for blacks. The black-white dichotomy that is clearly evident in St. Louis society works against election of nonwhites citywide, but the citys political culture and structure also play a role in determining who is elected.

Racial context and voting behavior in one-party urban political systems

Abstract Two Democratic primary elections for city-wide office in St Louis and one non-partisan election for city-wide school board positions are analyzed for the vote of seven candidates. Racial structuring of voting patterns is the focus of analysis and the precinct is the unit of analysis. Census information is aggregated or allocated to the precincts. Racial effects order the voting behavior in models based solely on race. When multivariate prediction models are formulated which include non-racial predictors the racial effects remain strong. Evidence for social class effects running contrary to the direction of race are found in the school board elections but not in contests for the mayoralty Democratic nomination. Spatial autocorrelation between observation units is assessed for voting and shown to be strong. Reassessment of spatial autocorrelation in the multivariate model residuals is used to evaluate model specification. Although very large reduction in spatial autocorrelation is achieved with multivariate event count models, the residuals retain statistically significant evidence of spatial structuring.

Rational cops, rational robbers, and information

The effectiveness of punishment as a deterrent to crime is commonly held to be a function of the severity and certainty of sanctions. The negative association found between crime rates and lagged clearance rates, which previously has been interpreted as a deterrence effect, is shown in this analysis to be largely an artifact of a misspecified measurement procedure. A more plausible hypothesis that police decision makers are informed and thus respond to changes in crime by allocating resources and making more arrests is supported by evidence from St. Louis data.

Fox Reexamined: a Research Note Examining the Perils of Quantification

been methodological. There is a certain peril in this development, specifically in those branches of social science in which research has not been quantitatively sophisticated. In many ways, criminal justice best exemplifies this type of advancement. It currently embodies perhaps the widest variation in methodological sophistication. Because of this, the most significant methodological developments need to be scrutinized closely. There is a certain &dquo;seductive&dquo; quality attached to the most complicated analysis of data. Because the method of analysis itself is sometimes beyond comprehension, the results often are taken to be unequivocal-either in truth or falsehood. The introduction of time

Time Series, Panel Design, and Criminal Justice: A Multi-State, Multi-Wave Design

Finding the right analysis for research questions is a difficult chore. Frequently, researchers are faced with a situation where the data are not suitable for the type of analysis they would like to carry out. In other circumstances, the data are not available for the appropriate analysis. This chapter presents a view to the kind of analysis that can be performed under a variety of circumstances. We present the approach to a time-series analysis, concluding with a specific application of this technique.

Reply To Fox

There are times when the scientific enterprise grows by great leaps. And there are others when its progress is at best measured by quantum changes. In his manuscript, Forecasting Crime Data: An Econometric Analysis, Fox (1978) has sought to effect a &dquo;great leap&dquo; for criminological analysis. He may be judged successful in this endeavor by some, and we are not in total disagreement with such a conclusion. Indeed, the discipline of criminology has been ripe for the methodological sophistication apparently offered by Fox. We find ourselves, in the first place, reluctant critics of Fox, since