Carole Jean Uhlaner

Rational Turnout: The Neglected Role of Groups

Rational choice theories have difficulty accounting for individual participation in collective action. Voting is among the acts hardest to explain; consumption benefits have been proposed to account for nonzero turnout. The model presented here establishes a political investment basis for these benefits. I argue that voters often act not in isolation but as part of groups with shared interests. While individuals still vote because of consumption benefits arising from the act of voting, some of these consumption benefits are provided by group leaders out of collective benefits received by the group in return for its votes. The collective benefit comes from a candidate adopting policy positions closer to those of the group. In passing, I show that the widespread availability of public opinion polling increases the candidates incentive to shift position. Finally, some data from recent off-year elections are shown to be consistent with the model.

Political participation of ethnic minorities in the 1980s

Currently political participation, especially voter registration and turnout, varies substantially with ethnicity. Blacks and non-Hispanic whites participate at roughly equal rates, while Latinos and Asian-Americans are substantially less active. This variation may be the direct product of cultural factors, or it may reflect differences in the distribution of various determinants of participation, most notably education, citizenship, and age. Using data collected in 1984 on samples of Californias black, Latino, Asian-American, and non-Hispanic white populations, we conclude that such variables fully account for lower Latino participation rates. Even with these controls, however, Asian-Americans remain less likely to vote. Because ethnic group consciousness is one of the variables related to activity, we conclude that ethnicity does have an indirect effect on participation as a basis for mobilization. In addition, we establish that noncitizens engage in nonelectoral activities, and we project future political participation rates of Latinos and Asian-Americans under several scenarios.

The Acquisition of Partisanship by Latinos and Asian Americans

In this paper we examine the acquisition of partisanship by immigrants and subsequent generations of Latinos and Asian Americans. The data we analyze are derived from a survey of California residents in late 1984. We find that the longer Latino immigrants have been in the United States, the more likely they are to identify as Democrats and to have strong party preferences. We find age-related gains in both Democratic support and in the strength of partisanship among subsequent generations of Latinos as well. In line with our hypotheses about their foreign policy concerns, the data also suggest that immigrants from China, Korea, and Southeast Asia become more Republican with increased exposure to American politics. Other Asian immigrants and subsequent generations of Asian Americans exhibit no such trends in either the direction of their party preferences or in partisan intensity.

Isotope Effect in Electron Stimulated Desorption: Oxygen Chemisorbed on Tungsten

Electron stimulated desorption (ESD) studies of oxygen chemisorbed on tungsten have revealed a large isotope effect in the desorption of ions. The probability of desorption of 16O+ was found to be a factor of ∼1.5 greater than the probability of desorption of 18O+ upon bombardment of the adsorbed layer by 100‐eV electrons. This observation is quantitatively consistent with the ESD mechanism proposed independently by Redhead and by Menzel and Gomer. On the other hand, the small isotope effect observed in ESD “total” desorption does not agree with this mechanism; possible reasons for this are discussed.

The race may be close but my horse is going to win: Wish fulfillment in the 1980 presidential election

Using data from the 1980 U.S. presidential election, we investigate the extent to which voter expectations about candidate electoral success and margin of victory are subject to systematic biases. In particular, we examine the extent to which candidate supporters overestimate their choices likelihood of success. After finding a rather dramatic bias in the direction of “wishful thinking,” we review alternative explanations of this phenomenon, including a model based on nonrandom contact networks and one based on preference-related differences in expectations about exogenous variables that could affect the election outcome.

METAPREFERENCES AND THE REASONS FOR STABILITY IN SOCIAL CHOICE: THOUGHTS ON BROADENING AND CLARIFYING THE DEBATE*

The standard model of collective choice looks at aggregation procedures which take individual preferences as existing for a specified set of alternatives. In this paper we propose that actors also have preferences for rules of choice or characteristics of choice processes (e.g., the perceived fairness of procedures or the popularity of outcomes) rather than simply for alternatives (outcomes) themselves. We argue that the positing of the existence of meta-preferences can illuminate a number of areas of choice theory. Here we focus on one such area: the problem of “too much” stability in majority rule decision making - a stability which belies the standard theoretical results on the generic instability of majority rule processes.We also show that discussion of the prevalence of stability in collective decision making needs to be clarified because there are at least six distinct types of stability which are sometimes confounded in the literature.

Turnout in recent American presidential elections

The well-noted decline in the participation of Americans in presidential elections since the early sixties reversed in the 1984 election, although only slightly. An improved “national mood” appears to have contributed little to increasing turnout. However, the gap in participation between the wealthier and poorer widened, while that between men and women narrowed and reversed direction, and belonging to a group associated with an identity affected participation more powerfully. Taken together, these findings indicate shifts in patterns of turnout corresponding to shifts in the lines of politicized interests. Analysis of the participation of blacks finds little evidence for electoral mobilization by the Rainbow Coalition in 1984.

Immigrant and Native Mexican American Presidential Vote Choice Across Immigrant Generations

The Mexican American electorate includes large numbers of immigrants as well as people of later generations. In this article, we test whether cross-generational acculturation shapes the ways in which Mexican American voters selected between John Kerry and George Bush in the 2004 presidential election. Although change across immigrant generations has long been a critical question in American political behavior, it is only with the current wave of immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren that it is possible to measure the relationship between acculturation and vote choice. With generational replacement, changes in the dynamics of vote choice across immigrant generations could herald long-term changes in the mechanisms of vote choice. We find that generation does shape Mexican American vote choice, both directly—in the simple measure of the generational dummy variables—and in the interaction between generation and partisanship, issue evaluation, religion, and state of residence.

The Consistency of Individual Political Participation Across Governmental Levels in Canada

Canadians who participate in the politics of one level of government (federal, provincial, or local) perform the same types of acts at the other levels as well. The results of a study of data collected in the 1974 federal election study support the theory that acts of political participation fall into distinct clusters or modes. The great variations in political factors across the levels of government in Canada make this a strong test, as the highly decentralized nature of the system might suggest instead a concentration of activity by level. The conclusions hold after allowance for the effects of party mobilization, and they hold for French Quebeckers.

The role of coethnic political mobilization in electoral incorporation: Evidence from Orange County, California

ABSTRACT The process of political incorporation is essential for integrating immigrant and minority interests into politics. Coethnic candidates are important players in increasing the electoral participation of the politically quiescent. However, the means by which coethnic mobilization incorporates underrepresented populations remain unclear. We posit three mechanisms. First, coethnic candidates may attempt to expand the electoral base; second, their candidacies offer a coethnic cue that encourages citizens to vote to support their group; and third, mobilization by coethnic candidates may lead to habitual voting. Using voter history panel data supplemented by elite interviews, we test these hypotheses using a set of elections in a district in Orange County, California with substantial Latino and Vietnamese-American populations. We find that coethnic candidacies can mobilize coethnic support as long as the campaign message also resonates, even when out-group competition is absent. Coethnic mobilization is especially powerful in the immigrant generation. However, we find no support of a voting habit carrying over in the absence of a coethnic cue. Our study contributes to minority political incorporation scholarship by offering insights on how coethnic candidates can open up avenues toward electoral participation to members of their group, thus increasing the likelihood that their interests will be represented.