Caroline Krafft

The Egypt labor market panel survey: introducing the 2012 round

This paper introduces the 2012 round of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), a publicly-available nationally representative longitudinal household survey. We describe the key characteristics of the ELMPS, including the samples and questionnaires for each round. Additionally, we examine the attrition processes observed in the panel and discuss the creation of weights to correct for attrition. We compare our data to other statistical sources for Egypt to evaluate the sample’s representativeness. To demonstrate how the ELMPS allows for an improved understanding of the labor market, we compare unemployment trends using the ELMPS and other data on unemployment in Egypt.JEL codesJ00, C81, C83, J64

Inequality Of Opportunity In Child Health In The Arab World And Turkey

It is by now well established in the public health literature that health and nutrition in the first years of life are critical to health and wellbeing later in life. In this paper, we examine the patterns of inequality of opportunity in health and nutrition outcomes, such as height-for-age and weight-for-height, for children under 5 years of age in selected Arab Countries and Turkey, using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. Our objective is to decompose inequality into a portion that is due to inequality of opportunity and a portion that is due to other factors, such as random variations in health and genetics. Inequality of opportunity is defined as the inequality that is due to differences in circumstances, such as parental characteristics, household wealth, place of birth and gender. We measure inequality using decomposable general entropy measures, such as the Theil-T index, and use parametric decomposition methods to determine the share of inequality of opportunity in total inequality. Results show that different levels and trends are evident across countries in both the overall inequality of child health outcomes and in the share of inequality of opportunity in total inequality. Inequality of opportunity is shown to contribute substantially to the inequality of child health outcomes, but its share in total inequality varies significantly both across countries and within countries over time. To further highlight the relative contribution of circumstances to the inequality of child health outcomes in different countries, we simulate height and weight outcomes for a most and least advantaged child in each context. Since these simulations set observed circumstances at their best and worst levels, the larger the difference in predicted outcomes between the most and least advantaged child, the larger is the inequality of opportunity facing children in that country.

Expanding opportunities for the next generation : early childhood development in the Middle East and North Africa

Early childhood is the most important stage of human development. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there is little research and inadequate investment in this crucial stage of life. This book assesses the state of early childhood development (ECD) in MENA from before birth through age five, examining multiple dimensions of early development including health, nutrition, socio-emotional development, early learning, and early work. The book begins with a discussion of the importance of ECD as a critical foundation for later development, and also as a stage of life when inequality and social exclusion begin. ECD in MENA is set in a global context, and then countries within MENA are compared, with chapters on ECD in Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen. As well as illustrating the state of ECD, the chapters assess risk and protective factors for early development and the extent of inequality in early childhood. A discussion of policies and programs that can enhance ECD illustrates how inequality and shortfalls in early development can be effectively addressed. This book will be of interest to anyone interested in the state of human development and inequality in MENA.

Is School the Best Route to Skills? Returns to Vocational School and Vocational Skills in Egypt

Abstract This paper tests the assumption that formal education is the best route to job skills. The returns to formal vocational secondary schooling are compared to the returns to acquiring skills outside the education system, such as undertaking an apprenticeship, for male wage workers in Egypt. A unique longitudinal dataset with information on schooling and skills allows for causal inference about returns by comparing siblings. For recent cohorts, the estimated returns to formal vocational secondary education are the same as attaining no formal education. However, the returns to skills obtained outside of formal education are substantial.

Time for a change? Predictors of child care changes by low-income families

Instability in child care arrangements can negatively affect childrens development, especially in low-income families. However, few studies have examined what predicts changes over time in child care arrangements. This paper presents findings from a unique multiyear study tracking child care use in low-income families. We estimate rich quantitative models to analyze the relationships among child, household, and care provider characteristics and four different types of changes. We find turnover in child care arrangements to be common in this low-income population. Over a period of six months, half of the children changed primary provider. Child care changes were frequently related to job loss, changes in family composition, or the changing availability of caregivers. While concerns have been raised that short spells of child care subsidy receipt cause child care instability, we found that subsidy use was not associated with higher rates of change. In addition, we found that the lower a parents assessment of the childs experience in a particular arrangement in the prior time period, the higher the likelihood of changing providers by the next survey wave. These results indicate that low-income parents recognize quality factors and change arrangements to improve the quality of care.

The Problem of Measurement Error in Self-Reported Receipt of Child-Care Subsidies: Evidence from Two States

Researchers frequently rely on survey responses to determine whether families receive government assistance and to study the effects of government programs, but these responses are often inaccurate. This study investigates misreporting in the child-care subsidy program by comparing survey responses on child-care subsidy receipt with program administrative data in two states. While we find a lower rate of misreporting than is typical for other government assistance programs, overreporting of benefit receipt is surprisingly common and generates overestimates of program participation. Analyses further suggest that the frequency and systematic nature of misreporting bias estimates of the predictors of program receipt and the effects of the program. These findings illustrate the necessity of assessing the frequency of response errors and understanding their implications in generating valid research results on the effects of government programs.

Inequality of Opportunity in Early Childhood Development in Morocco Over Time

Early childhood development is a critical, but often neglected, phase of human development. Shortfalls in early childhood development have historically been a challenge in Morocco, with children facing unequal opportunities to develop because of the circumstances of their birth. This paper examines the roots of inequality in human and economic development in Morocco by focusing on the state of early childhood development, inequality in early childhood development, and trends over time, using several surveys conducted between 2003 and 2012. Large disparities exist in childrens chances of healthy early childhood development based on the circumstances of their birth. There have not been consistent improvements in the levels of early childhood development or decreases in inequality over time. This study discusses critical directions for future policy on early childhood development to address the deficits and disparities identified.

Inequality of Opportunity in Wages and Consumption in Egypt

Most explanations of the recent political upheavals in Egypt since 2011 include a reference to rising inequality, but the usual indicators of income inequality in Egypt do not support that inequality was on the rise prior to the uprisings. In this paper we provide measures of inequality of opportunity in wages and consumption for Egypt at different points in time from 1988 to 2012 that shed light on the gap between popular perceptions and measured indices of inequality. Our findings indicate that although measures of inequality of wage income have increased over time in Egypt starting in 1998, the share attributable to circumstances declined steadily throughout the whole period. We attribute this decline to the fact that outcomes for individuals from a middle class background have moved closer to the outcomes of those from a poor background. The outcomes for those from privileged backgrounds remain quite apart from the rest.

Inequality of Opportunity in the Labor Market for Higher Education Graduates in Egypt and Jordan

In the Middle East and North Africa, unequal opportunities occur in both the education system and the labor market. The outcomes that individuals achieve in the labor market depend on circumstances beyond their control, such as gender or parents’ education, as well as the effort they expend in succeeding in the education system and in the labor market itself. The extent to which outcomes depend on circumstances outside an individual’s control is typically referred to as inequality of opportunity. It could be that unequal opportunities in the labor market are due to unequal human capital (pre-market inequality) or, alternatively, to individuals being treated unequally in the labor market even after accounting for differences in their human capital (in-market inequality). This paper tests whether there is in-market inequality of opportunity in Egypt and Jordan, focusing on the labor market experiences of higher education graduates. Specifically, the paper examines whether a number of labor market outcomes are affected by circumstances, such as family background, gender, and place of birth, after carefully controlling for the type and quality of human capital an individual possesses. We find that substantial in-market inequality exists in both settings, but more so in Egypt, suggesting that the functioning of the labor market itself is a substantial source of inequality of opportunity.

Pedagogy, Accountability, and Perceptions of Quality by Type of Higher Education in Egypt and Jordan

A number of reasons have been proposed for the poor quality of higher education in the Arab world, including the poor incentive structures of public higher education institutions. The expansion of private higher education has been hailed as an important part of enhancing incentives and thus improving education quality. However, it is not clear whether the practices of private higher education institutions differ from those of public institutions. This article explores whether private provision improves the quality of higher education, as measured by pedagogy, accountability, and student perceptions of quality. The analysis focuses on commerce and information technology programs in Egypt and Jordan. The results indicate that pedagogy, accountability, and student perceptions of quality do not vary systematically by type of higher education institution in these countries and that expanding the role of private institutions in higher education is therefore unlikely to automatically improve educational processes or quality.