Carson J. Butler

Summer range occupancy modeling of non-native mountain goats in the greater Yellowstone area

Non-native species can have adverse impacts on native species. Predicting the potential extent of distributional expansion and abundance of an invading non-native species can inform appropriate conservation and management actions. Non-native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the greater Yellowstone area (GYA) have substantial potential to occupy similar habitats to native Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis). To understand the potential for expansion of mountain goats in the GYA, this study evaluated detection-nondetection data derived from ground-based occupancy surveys of viewsheds partitioned into a grid of 100 × 100 m sampling units. Surveys were conducted over three summer seasons (2011–2013) in two study areas with well-established mountain goat populations. Relationships between scale-specific habitat covariates and mountain goat selection were evaluated to model occupancy and detection probabilities based on mountain goat detections in 505 of the 53,098 sampling units surveyed. Habitat selection was most strongly associated with terrain covariates, including mean slope and slope variance, at a spatial scale of 500 × 500 m, and canopy cover, heat load, and normalized difference vegetation index at a spatial scale of 100 × 100 m. These results provide new insight into multi-scale patterns of mountain goat habitat selection, as well as evidence that mean slope and slope variance are more informative terrain covariates than distance to escape terrain, which has been commonly used in published mountain goat habitat models. The model predicted 9,035 km2 of suitable habitat within the GYA, of which 57% is currently un-colonized. Seventy-five percent of all bighorn observations recorded in the GYA fall within predicted suitable mountain goat habitat. We also estimated that the GYA might have the potential to support 5,331–8,854 mountain goats when all predicted habitat is occupied, or approximately 2.5–4.2 times the most recent abundance estimate of 2,354.

Assessing respiratory pathogen communities in bighorn sheep populations: Sampling realities, challenges, and improvements

Respiratory disease has been a persistent problem for the recovery of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), but has uncertain etiology. The disease has been attributed to several bacterial pathogens including Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae and Pasteurellaceae pathogens belonging to the Mannheimia, Bibersteinia, and Pasteurella genera. We estimated detection probability for these pathogens using protocols with diagnostic tests offered by a fee-for-service laboratory and not offered by a fee-for-service laboratory. We conducted 2861 diagnostic tests on swab samples collected from 476 bighorn sheep captured across Montana and Wyoming to gain inferences regarding detection probability, pathogen prevalence, and the power of different sampling methodologies to detect pathogens in bighorn sheep populations. Estimated detection probability using fee-for-service protocols was less than 0.50 for all Pasteurellaceae and 0.73 for Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae. Non-fee-for-service Pasteurellaceae protocols had higher detection probabilities, but no single protocol increased detection probability of all Pasteurellaceae pathogens to greater than 0.50. At least one protocol resulted in an estimated detection probability of 0.80 for each pathogen except Mannheimia haemolytica, for which the highest detection probability was 0.45. In general, the power to detect Pasteurellaceae pathogens at low prevalence in populations was low unless many animals were sampled or replicate samples were collected per animal. Imperfect detection also resulted in low precision when estimating prevalence for any pathogen. Low and variable detection probabilities for respiratory pathogens using live-sampling protocols may lead to inaccurate conclusions regarding pathogen community dynamics and causes of bighorn sheep respiratory disease epizootics. We recommend that agencies collect multiples samples per animal for Pasteurellaceae detection, and one sample for Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae detection from at least 30 individuals to reliably detect both Pasteurellaceae and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae at the population-level. Availability of PCR diagnostic tests to wildlife management agencies would improve the ability to reliably detect Pasteurellaceae in bighorn sheep populations.