Carsten Murawski

Single-Trial Event-Related Potential Correlates of Belief Updating 1,2,3

Abstract Belief updating—the process by which an agent alters an internal model of its environment—is a core function of the CNS. Recent theory has proposed broad principles by which belief updating might operate, but more precise details of its implementation in the human brain remain unclear. In order to address this question, we studied how two components of the human event-related potential encoded different aspects of belief updating. Participants completed a novel perceptual learning task while electroencephalography was recorded. Participants learned the mapping between the contrast of a dynamic visual stimulus and a monetary reward and updated their beliefs about a target contrast on each trial. A Bayesian computational model was formulated to estimate belief states at each trial and was used to quantify the following two variables: belief update size and belief uncertainty. Robust single-trial regression was used to assess how these model-derived variables were related to the amplitudes of the P3 and the stimulus-preceding negativity (SPN), respectively. Results showed a positive relationship between belief update size and P3 amplitude at one fronto-central electrode, and a negative relationship between SPN amplitude and belief uncertainty at a left central and a right parietal electrode. These results provide evidence that belief update size and belief uncertainty have distinct neural signatures that can be tracked in single trials in specific ERP components. This, in turn, provides evidence that the cognitive mechanisms underlying belief updating in humans can be described well within a Bayesian framework.

Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decisions in people with obesity.

Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n = 52) completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discount rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before making financial decisions. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity toward changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

Social connectedness, mental health and the adolescent brain

HIGHLIGHTSThe quality and quantity of ones social relationships correlates with variations in the structure and function of social brain regions.Social ties can have direct and indirect influences on brain development and behavior.Genes and neurobiology influence social preferences and roles.An individuals position within a social network can influence risk for mental illness. ABSTRACT Social relationships promote health and wellbeing. Brain regions regulating social behavior continue to develop throughout adolescence, as teens learn to navigate their social environment with increasing sophistication. Adolescence is also a time of increased risk for the development of psychiatric disorders, many of which are characteristically associated with social dysfunction. In this review, we consider the links between adolescent brain development and the broader social environment. We examine evidence that individual differences in social ability, partly determined by genetic influences on brain structure and function, impact the quality and quantity of social ties during adolescence and that, conversely, the structure of ones social network exerts complex yet profound influences on individual behavior and mental health. In this way, the brain and social environment sculpt each other throughout the teenage years to influence ones social standing amongst peers. Reciprocal interactions between brain maturation and the social environment at this critical developmental stage may augment risk or promote resilience for mental illness and other health outcomes.

Margining in derivatives markets and the stability of the banking sector

We investigate the effects of margining, a widely-used mechanism to attach collateral to derivatives contracts, on derivatives’ trading volume, default risk, and on the welfare in the banking sector. First, we develop a stylized banking sector equilibrium model to derive a set of testable hypotheses. Subsequently, we test these hypotheses with a simulation model that captures some of the essential characteristics of over-the-counter derivatives markets. Contrarily to the common belief that margining always reduces default risk, we find that there exist situations in which margining increases default risk, reduces aggregate derivatives’ trading volume, and has an ambiguous effect on welfare in the banking sector. The negative effects of margining are exacerbated during periods of market stress when margin rates are high and collateral is scarce. We also find that central counterparties only lift some of the inefficiencies caused by margining.

From behavioural economics to neuroeconomics to decision neuroscience: the ascent of biology in research on human decision making ☆

Here, we briefly review the evolution of research on human decision-making over the past few decades. We discern a trend whereby biology moves from subserving economics (neuroeconomics), to providing the data that advance our knowledge of the nature of human decision-making (decision neuroscience). Examples illustrate that the integration of behavioural and biological models is fruitful especially for understanding heterogeneity of choice in humans.

Intrinsic Valuation of Information in Decision Making under Uncertainty.

In a dynamic world, an accurate model of the environment is vital for survival, and agents ought regularly to seek out new information with which to update their world models. This aspect of behaviour is not captured well by classical theories of decision making, and the cognitive mechanisms of information seeking are poorly understood. In particular, it is not known whether information is valued only for its instrumental use, or whether humans also assign it a non-instrumental intrinsic value. To address this question, the present study assessed preference for non-instrumental information among 80 healthy participants in two experiments. Participants performed a novel information preference task in which they could choose to pay a monetary cost to receive advance information about the outcome of a monetary lottery. Importantly, acquiring information did not alter lottery outcome probabilities. We found that participants were willing to incur considerable monetary costs to acquire payoff-irrelevant information about the lottery outcome. This behaviour was well explained by a computational cognitive model in which information preference resulted from aversion to temporally prolonged uncertainty. These results strongly suggest that humans assign an intrinsic value to information in a manner inconsistent with normative accounts of decision making under uncertainty. This intrinsic value may be associated with adaptive behaviour in real-world environments by producing a bias towards exploratory and information-seeking behaviour.

How Humans Solve Complex Problems: The Case of the Knapsack Problem

Life presents us with problems of varying complexity. Yet, complexity is not accounted for in theories of human decision-making. Here we study instances of the knapsack problem, a discrete optimisation problem commonly encountered at all levels of cognition, from attention gating to intellectual discovery. Complexity of this problem is well understood from the perspective of a mechanical device like a computer. We show experimentally that human performance too decreased with complexity as defined in computer science. Defying traditional economic principles, participants spent effort way beyond the point where marginal gain was positive, and economic performance increased with instance difficulty. Human attempts at solving the instances exhibited commonalities with algorithms developed for computers, although biological resource constraints–limited working and episodic memories–had noticeable impact. Consistent with the very nature of the knapsack problem, only a minority of participants found the solution–often quickly–but the ones who did appeared not to realise. Substantial heterogeneity emerged, suggesting why prizes and patents, schemes that incentivise intellectual discovery but discourage information sharing, have been found to be less effective than mechanisms that reveal private information, such as markets.

The anticipation and outcome phases of reward and loss processing: A neuroimaging meta-analysis of the monetary incentive delay task

The processing of rewards and losses are crucial to everyday functioning. Considerable interest has been attached to investigating the anticipation and outcome phases of reward and loss processing, but results to date have been inconsistent. It is unclear if anticipation and outcome of a reward or loss recruit similar or distinct brain regions. In particular, while the striatum has widely been found to be active when anticipating a reward, whether it activates in response to the anticipation of losses as well remains ambiguous. Furthermore, concerning the orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal regions, activation is often observed during reward receipt. However, it is unclear if this area is active during reward anticipation as well. We ran an Activation Likelihood Estimation meta‐analysis of 50 fMRI studies, which used the Monetary Incentive Delay Task (MIDT), to identify which brain regions are implicated in the anticipation of rewards, anticipation of losses, and the receipt of reward. Anticipating rewards and losses recruits overlapping areas including the striatum, insula, amygdala and thalamus, suggesting that a generalised neural system initiates motivational processes independent of valence. The orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal regions were recruited only during the reward outcome, likely representing the value of the reward received. Our findings help to clarify the neural substrates of the different phases of reward and loss processing, and advance neurobiological models of these processes.

Neuroscience in gambling policy and treatment: an interdisciplinary perspective

Neuroscientific explanations of gambling disorder can help people make sense of their experiences and guide the development of psychosocial interventions. However, the societal perceptions and implications of these explanations are not always clear or helpful. Two workshops in 2013 and 2014 brought together multidisciplinary researchers aiming to improve the clinical and policy-related effects of neuroscience research on gambling. The workshops revealed that neuroscience can be used to improve identification of the dangers of products used in gambling. Additionally, there was optimism associated with the diagnostic and prognostic uses of neuroscience in problem gambling and the provision of novel tools (eg, virtual reality) to assess the effectiveness of new policy interventions before their implementation. Other messages from these workshops were that neuroscientific models of decision making could provide a strong rationale for precommitment strategies and that interdisciplinary collaborations are needed to reduce the harms of gambling.

Caloric primary rewards systematically alter time perception.

Human time perception can be influenced by contextual factors, such as the presence of reward. Yet, the exact nature of the relationship between time perception and reward has not been conclusively characterized. We implemented a novel experimental paradigm to measure estimations of time across a range of suprasecond intervals, during the anticipation and after the consumption of fruit juice, a physiologically relevant primary reward. We show that average time estimations were systematically affected by the consumption of reward, but not by the anticipation of reward. Compared with baseline estimations of time, reward consumption was associated with subsequent overproductions of time, and this effect increased for larger magnitudes of reward. Additional experiments demonstrated that the effect of consumption did not extend to a secondary reward (money), a tasteless, noncaloric primary reward (water), or a sweet, noncaloric reward (aspartame). However, a tasteless caloric reward (maltodexrin) did induce overproductions of time, although this effect did not scale with reward magnitude. These results suggest that the consumption of caloric primary rewards can alter time perception, which may be a psychophysiological mechanism by which organisms regulate homeostatic balance.