Carsten Walther

A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability

This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in methodologies for vulnerability analysis by providing generalizations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occurrence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environmental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnerability in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster analysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe different typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpretation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places.

Towards sectoral and standardised vulnerability assessments: the example of heatwave impacts on human health

The relevance of climate change is especially apparent through the impacts it has on natural and societal systems. A standardised methodology to assess these impacts in order to produce comparable results is still lacking. We propose a semi-quantitative approach to calculate vulnerability to climate change, with the ability to capture complex mechanisms in human-environmental systems. The key mechanisms are delineated and translated into a deterministic graph (impact chain). A fuzzy logic algorithm is then applied to address uncertainty regarding the definition of clear threshold values. We exemplify our approach by analysing the direct impacts of climate change on human health in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, where the urban heat island potential, the percentage of elderly population as well as the occurrence of heat waves determine impact intensity. Increases in heatwaves and elderly population will aggravate the impacts. While the influence of climatic changes is apparent on larger spatial scales, societal factors determine the small scale distribution of impacts within our regional case study. In addition to identifying climate change impact hot spots, the structured approach of the impact chain and the methodology of aggregation enable to infer from the results back to the main constituents of vulnerability. Thus, it can provide a basis for decision-makers to set priorities for specific adaptation measures within the complex field of climate change impacts.

Armed conflict distribution in global drylands through the lens of a typology of socio-ecological vulnerability

Motivated by an inconclusive debate over implications of resource scarcity for violent conflict, and common reliance on national data and linear models, we investigate the relationship between socio-ecological vulnerability and armed conflict in global drylands on a subnational level. Our study emanates from a global typology of smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to environmental and socioeconomic stresses in drylands. This typology is composed of eight typical value combinations of variables indicating environmental scarcities, resource overuse, and poverty-related factors in a widely subnational spatial resolution. We investigate the relationships between the spatial distribution of these combinations, or vulnerability profiles, and geocoded armed conflicts, and find that conflicts are heterogeneously distributed according to these profiles. Four profiles distributed across low- and middle-income countries comprise all drylands conflicts. Comparing models for conflict incidence using logit regression and receiver operator characteristic analysis based on (1) the set of all seven indicators as independent variables and (2) a single, only vulnerability profile-based variable proves that the nonlinear typology-based variable is the better explanans for conflict incidence. Inspection of the profiles’ value combinations makes this understandable: A systematic explanation of conflict incidence and absence across all degrees of natural resource endowments is only reached through varying importance of poverty and resource overuse depending on the level of endowment. These are nonlinear interactions between the explaining variables. Conflict does not generally increase with resource scarcity or overuse. Comparison with conflict case studies showed both good agreement with our results and promise in expanding the set of indicators. Based on our findings and supporting literature, we argue that part of the debate over implications of resource scarcity for violent conflict in drylands may be resolved by acknowledging and accounting for nonlinear processes.