Cary J. Mock

Climatic Controls and Spatial Variations of Precipitation in the Western United States

Abstract The western United States is characterized by complex seasonal precipitation regimes due to the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales. A climatology of month to month changes in precipitation, using data from 4027 stations, illustrates how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of precipitation response and explains the spatial distribution of the seasonal precipitation maximum. These results particularly indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity over mountainous areas. The examination of seasonal precipitation maxima during years characterized by abnormally low winter Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) patterns and abnormally strong summer monsoons reveal few changes spatially as compared to normal. The lack of changes illustrate that spatial heterogeneity of precipitation seasonally is the rule rather than the exception for muc...

Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity

The destruction wrought by North Atlantic hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 dramatically emphasizes the need for better understanding of tropical cyclone activity apart from the records provided by meteorological data and historical documentation. We present a 220-year record of oxygen isotope values of α-cellulose in longleaf pine tree rings that preserves anomalously low isotope values in the latewood portion of the ring in years corresponding with known 19th and 20th century landfalling/near-coastal tropical storms and hurricanes. Our results suggest the potential for a tree-ring oxygen isotope proxy record of tropical cyclone occurrence extending back many centuries based on remnant pine wood from protected areas in the southeastern U.S.

Snow Avalanche Climatology of the Western United States Mountain Ranges

Abstract The snow avalanche climate of the western United States has long been suspected to consist of three main climate zones that relate with different avalanche characteristics: coastal, intermountain, and continental. The coastal zone of the Pacific mountain ranges is characterized by abundant snowfall, higher snow densities, and higher temperatures. The continental zone of the Colorado Rockies is characterized by lower temperatures, lower snowfall, lower snow densities, higher snow temperature gradients, and a more persistently unstable snowpack resulting from depth hoar. The intermountain zone of Utah, Montana, and Idaho is intermediate between the other two zones. A quantitative analysis of snow avalanche climate of the region was conducted based on Westwide Avalanche Network data from 1969 to 1995. A binary avalanche climate classification, based on well–known thresholds and ranges of snowpack and climatic variables, illustrates the broadscale climatology of the three major zones, some spatially ...

A Reanalysis of the 1911–20 Atlantic Hurricane Database

Abstract A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period of 1911–20 has been completed. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. A methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data is provided in detail. The dataset now includes several new tropical cyclones, excludes one system previously considered a tropical storm, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems. Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more signi...

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning ∼840 000 km2 and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning ∼1.4 million km2 across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as “heavy tailed,” with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising th...

A modern analogue of western United States summer palaeoclimate at 6000 years before present

A modern summer-climate analogue of western United States 6 ka palaeoclimate, based on broad-scale patterns from proxy data and general-circulation-model simulations, provides details concerning its sum mer synoptic climatology. August 1955 serves as a close analogue, featuring an amplified subtropical ridge aloft and anticyclonic flow near the surface over the central United States and stronger westerly flow along the Canadian/northwest United States border. The August 1955 summer-temperature pattern, similar to those from general-circulation-model simulations, exhibits positive anomalies throughout most of the continental interior. The August 1955 precipitation pattern corresponds very closely with patterns of effective moisture from proxy data, showing widespread aridity and some stronger monsoonal activity in the Southwest. The analogue suggests that the amplified subtropical ridge is a very important feature of 6 ka palaeoclimate, with the circulation pattern differing from that in the early Holocene, implying interactions between both Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch forcing factors.

Avalanche extremes and atmospheric circulation patterns

Abstract Avalanche forecasters can better anticipate avalanche extremes if they understand the relationships between those extremes and atmospheric circulation patterns. We investigated the relationship between extreme avalanche days and atmospheric circulation patterns at four sites in the western United States: Bridger Bowl, Montana; Jackson Hole, Wyoming; Alta, Utah; and Taos, New Mexico. For each site, we calculated a daily avalanche hazard index based on the number and size of avalanches, and we defined abnormal avalanche events as the top 10% of days with recorded avalanche activity. We assessed the influence of different variables on avalanche extremes, and found that high snow water equivalent and high snowfall correspond most closely to days of high avalanche hazard. Composite-anomaly maps of 500 hPa heights during those avalanche extremes clearly illustrate that spatial patterns of anomalous troughing prevail, though the exact position of the troughing varies between sites. These patterns can be explained by the topography of the western United States, and the low-elevation pathways for moisture that exist to the west of each of the sites. The methods developed for this research can be applied to other sites with long-term climate and avalanche databases to further our understanding of the spatial distribution of atmospheric patterns associated with extreme avalanche days.

Daily-Mean Temperature Reconstructed for Kansas from Early Instrumental and Modern Observations

A continuous record of 65 987 daily-mean temperature observations since 1828 has been developed for Manhattan, Kansas, by screening and correcting original station records of the U.S. Army Surgeon General, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Signal Service. Hourly, minimum, and maximum temperature observations from seven discontinuous historical stations and four modern stations in Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma were used to compile this unbroken record of daily-mean temperature. The historical temperature data were linked with the modern temperature record for Manhattan after these data were adjusted for time of observation differences, station movements, and changes in the environment around the station. The new daily-mean temperature reconstruction for Manhattan now extends with confidence back to 1 July 1855 and with more uncertainty back to 1 July 1828. The uncertainty prior to 1855 is due to instrumentation changes in 1843 and changes in observation practices in 1855 that occurred at many stations. The error estimates reported in this paper do not reflect these potential inhomogeneities and should be considered lower limits. Nonetheless, this new daily record indicates significant warming in all seasons; in heating and cooling degree-days; in the warmest and coldest days of the year; in extremes above the 90th percentile and below the 10th percentile; in the frequency of winter cold waves and summer heat waves; and in the overall annual-mean temperature, which has warmed by 1.57 86 0.238C since 1855 (1.27 86 0.238C since 1829). The warm Dust Bowl event in the summer of the 1930s and cold winters of the 1870s and 1880s dominate the reconstruction and included some of the warmest and coldest daily extremes, respectively, of the last 154‐180 yr. This new reconstruction is currently the longest unbroken daily corrected record in the Americas. These data indicate that the nineteenth century was fundamentally cooler than the twentieth and early twenty-first century.

The Great Louisiana Hurricane of August 1812

Major hurricanes are prominent meteorological hazards of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. However, the official modern record of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones starts at 1851, and it does not provide a comprehensive measure of the frequency and magnitude of major hurricanes. Vast amounts of documentary weather data extend back several centuries, but many of these have not yet been fully utilized for hurricane reconstruction. These sources include weather diaries, ship logbooks, ship protests, and newspapers from American, British, and Spanish archives. A coordinated effort, utilizing these historical sources, has reconstructed a major hurricane in August 1812, which is the closest to ever pass by New Orleans, Louisiana, including Hurricane Katrina. The storm became a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea, passed south of Jamaica as a tropical storm, and then strengthened to hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall about 65 km southeast of New Orleans and passed just to the west of...

The Sitka Hurricane of October 1880

This study reconstructed a unique and previously poorly understood storm known as the October 1880 Sitka Alaska Hurricane. Data were comprised of daily instrumental records from military posts, exploration surveys, and ship logbooks, as well verbal descriptions from diaries. Hourly pressure data from the USS Jamestown were corrected for elevation, latitude, and gravity, and a meteogram was constructed to assess the specific storm impact at Sitka. Pressure records reveal that the Sitka hurricane is clearly a very abnormal weather event, likely one of the strongest storms ever to strike western North America in the historical period. The plotting of data indicates that the storm track originated off Eastern Siberia and had no associations with any possible typhoon from the western Pacific Ocean.