Castor Muñoz Sobrino

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized paleoclimate datasets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earths recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based paleotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our paleotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

The last hornbeam forests in SW Europe: new evidence on the demise of Carpinus betulus in NW Iberia

Carpinus betulus L. is a mesic, usually considered late-successional tree widely distributed in Europe, but almost absent from Iberia, where it is generally assumed that disappeared during the coldest stages of the Würm. High-resolution pollen analyses were carried out in 14C dated sediments from a drowned estuary (ria) and a small mountain lake. Carpinus pollen identification was confirmed by comparative light and scanning electron microscopy. Hornbeam dynamics are interpreted using palaeoclimatic reconstructions based on independent proxies (diatoms, chironomids and dinocysts). Our results support that hornbeam declined between ca. 60,000 and ca. 9,000xa0cal yr bp, when multiproxy evidence suggests a major regional relative sea-level rise. Moreover, chironomid-inferred July temperatures show an increase of more than 6xa0°C between 15,600 and 10,500xa0cal yr bp, while freshwater aquatics and diatoms indicate a general tendency towards increasing precipitation and a more oceanic climate. Carpinus survived during the Würm in a variety of habitats in coastal valleys in NW Iberia which had adequate climatic and edaphic conditions. Such habitats might be comparable to the oak-ash, ravine, and hardwood floodplain forests currently existing in other regions of Europe. Large areas of these coastal ecosystems disappeared at the onset of the Holocene, when the sea-level rose. Later hornbeam was apparently unable to compete and expand further inland. Therefore, the sea-level rise combined with the climatically-induced Holocene tree succession and the increasing human impact during the Mid and Late Holocene led to hornbeam progressively becoming a marginal tree in the area.