Catherine E. Grueber

Multimodel inference in ecology and evolution: challenges and solutions

Information theoretic approaches and model averaging are increasing in popularity, but this approach can be difficult to apply to the realistic, complex models that typify many ecological and evolutionary analyses. This is especially true for those researchers without a formal background in information theory. Here, we highlight a number of practical obstacles to model averaging complex models. Although not meant to be an exhaustive review, we identify several important issues with tentative solutions where they exist (e.g. dealing with collinearity amongst predictors; how to compute model‐averaged parameters) and highlight areas for future research where solutions are not clear (e.g. when to use random intercepts or slopes; which information criteria to use when random factors are involved). We also provide a worked example of a mixed model analysis of inbreeding depression in a wild population. By providing an overview of these issues, we hope that this approach will become more accessible to those investigating any process where multiple variables impact an evolutionary or ecological response.

Heterozygosity-fitness correlations and their relevance to studies on inbreeding depression in threatened species

The majority of reported multilocus heterozygosity–fitness correlations (HFCs) are from large, outbred populations, and their relevance to studies on inbreeding depression in threatened populations is often stressed. The results of such HFC studies conducted on outbred populations may be of limited application to threatened population management, however, as bottlenecked populations exhibit increased incidence of inbreeding, increased linkage disequilibrium, reduced genetic diversity and possible effects of historical inbreeding such as purging. These differences may affect both our ability to detect inbreeding depression in threatened species, and our interpretation of the underlying mechanisms for observed heterozygosity–fitness relationships. The study of HFCs in outbred populations is of interest in itself, but the results may not translate directly to threatened populations that have undergone severe bottlenecks.

The imprecision of heterozygosity‐fitness correlations hinders the detection of inbreeding and inbreeding depression in a threatened species

In nonpedigreed wild populations, inbreeding depression is often quantified through the use of heterozygosity‐fitness correlations (HFCs), based on molecular estimates of relatedness. Although such correlations are typically interpreted as evidence of inbreeding depression, by assuming that the marker heterozygosity is a proxy for genome‐wide heterozygosity, theory predicts that these relationships should be difficult to detect. Until now, the vast majority of empirical research in this area has been performed on generally outbred, nonbottlenecked populations, but differences in population genetic processes may limit extrapolation of results to threatened populations. Here, we present an analysis of HFCs, and their implications for the interpretation of inbreeding, in a free‐ranging pedigreed population of a bottlenecked species: the endangered takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri). Pedigree‐based inbreeding depression has already been detected in this species. Using 23 microsatellite loci, we observed only weak evidence of the expected relationship between multilocus heterozygosity and fitness at individual life‐history stages (such as survival to hatching and fledging), and parameter estimates were imprecise (had high error). Furthermore, our molecular data set could not accurately predict the inbreeding status of individuals (as ‘inbred’ or ‘outbred’, determined from pedigrees), nor could we show that the observed HFCs were the result of genome‐wide identity disequilibrium. These results may be attributed to high variance in heterozygosity within inbreeding classes. This study is an empirical example from a free‐ranging endangered species, suggesting that even relatively large numbers (>20) of microsatellites may give poor precision for estimating individual genome‐wide heterozygosity. We argue that pedigree methods remain the most effective method of quantifying inbreeding in wild populations, particularly those that have gone through severe bottlenecks.

Episodic Positive Selection in the Evolution of Avian Toll-Like Receptor Innate Immunity Genes

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are a family of conserved pattern-recognition molecules responsible for initiating innate and acquired immune responses. Because they play a key role in host defence, these genes have received increasing interest in the evolutionary and population genetics literature, as their variation represents a potential target of adaptive evolution. However, the role of pathogen-mediated selection (i.e. episodic positive selection) in the evolution of these genes remains poorly known and has not been examined outside of mammals. A recent increase in the number of bird species for which TLR sequences are available has enabled us to examine the selective processes that have influenced evolution of the 10 known avian TLR genes. Specifically, we tested for episodic positive selection to identify codons that experience purifying selection for the majority of their evolution, interspersed with bursts of positive selection that may occur only in restricted lineages. We included up to 23 species per gene (mean = 16.0) and observed that, although purifying selection was evident, an average of 4.5% of codons experienced episodic positive selection across all loci. For four genes in which sequence coverage traversed both the extracellular leucine-rich repeat region (LRR) and transmembrane/intracellular domains of the proteins, increased positive selection was observed at the extracellular domain, consistent with theoretical predictions. Our results provide evidence that episodic positive selection has played an important role in the evolution of most avian TLRs, consistent with the role of these loci in pathogen recognition and a mechanism of host-pathogen coevolution.

Variation at Innate Immunity Toll-Like Receptor Genes in a Bottlenecked Population of a New Zealand Robin

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are an ancient family of genes encoding transmembrane proteins that bind pathogen-specific molecules and initiate both innate and adaptive aspects of the immune response. Our goal was to determine whether these genes show sufficient genetic diversity in a bottlenecked population to be a useful addition or alternative to the more commonly employed major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genotyping in a conservation genetics context. We amplified all known avian TLR genes in a severely bottlenecked population of New Zealands Stewart Island robin (Petroica australis rakiura), for which reduced microsatellite diversity was previously observed. We genotyped 17–24 birds from a reintroduced island population (including the 12 founders) for nine genes, seven of which were polymorphic. We observed a total of 24 single-nucleotide polymorphisms overall, 15 of which were non-synonymous, representing up to five amino-acid variants at a locus. One locus (TLR1LB) showed evidence of past directional selection. Results also confirmed a passerine duplication of TLR7. The levels of TLR diversity that we observe are sufficient to justify their further use in addressing conservation genetic questions, even in bottlenecked populations.

Genetic drift outweighs natural selection at toll-like receptor (TLR) immunity loci in a re-introduced population of a threatened species

During population establishment, genetic drift can be the key driver of changes in genetic diversity, particularly while the population is small. However, natural selection can also play a role in shaping diversity at functionally important loci. We used a well‐studied, re‐introduced population of the threatened Stewart Island robin (N = 722 pedigreed individuals) to determine whether selection shaped genetic diversity at innate immunity toll‐like receptor (TLR) genes, over a 9‐year period of population growth following establishment with 12 genetic founders. We found no evidence for selection operating with respect to TLR diversity on first‐year overwinter survival for the majority of loci, genotypes and alleles studied. However, survival of individuals with TLR4BE genotype was significantly improved: these birds were less than half as likely to die prior to maturity compared with all other TLR4 genotypes. Furthermore, the population frequency of this genotype, at a two‐fold excess over Hardy–Weinberg expectation, was increased by nonrandom mating. Near‐complete sampling and full pedigree and reproductive data enabled us to eliminate other potential causes of these patterns including inbreeding, year effects, density dependence, selection on animals at earlier life history stages or genome‐level association of the TLR4E allele with ‘good genes’. However, comparison of observed levels of gene diversity to predictions under simulated genetic drift revealed results consistent with neutral expectations for all loci, including TLR4. Although selection favoured TLR4BE heterozygotes in this population, these effects were insufficient to outweigh genetic drift. This is the first empirical study to show that genetic drift can overwhelm natural selection in a wild population immediately following establishment.

Severe inbreeding depression and no evidence of purging in an extremely inbred wild species - the Chatham Island Black Robin

Although evidence of inbreeding depression in wild populations is well established, the impact of genetic purging in the wild remains controversial. The contrasting effects of inbreeding depression, fixation of deleterious alleles by genetic drift, and the purging of deleterious alleles via natural selection mean that predicting fitness outcomes in populations subjected to prolonged bottlenecks is not straightforward. We report results from a long‐term pedigree study of arguably the worlds most inbred wild species of bird: the Chatham Island black robin Petroica traversi, in which conditions were ideal for purging to occur. Contrary to expectations, black robins showed a strong, negative relationship between inbreeding and juvenile survival, yielding lethal equivalents (2B) of 6.85. We also determined that the negative relationship between inbreeding and survival did not appear to be mediated by levels of ancestral inbreeding and may be attributed in part to unpurged lethal recessives. Although the black robin demographic history provided ideal conditions for genetic purging, our results show no clear evidence of purging in the major life‐history trait of juvenile survival. Our results also show no evidence of fixation of deleterious alleles in juvenile survival, but do confirm that continued high levels of contemporary inbreeding in a historically inbred population could lead to additional severe inbreeding depression.

Characterization of MHC class II B polymorphism in bottlenecked New Zealand saddlebacks reveals low levels of genetic diversity

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is integral to the vertebrate adaptive immune system. Characterizing diversity at functional MHC genes is invaluable for elucidating patterns of adaptive variation in wild populations, and is particularly interesting in species of conservation concern, which may suffer from reduced genetic diversity and compromised disease resilience. Here, we use next generation sequencing to investigate MHC class II B (MHCIIB) diversity in two sister taxa of New Zealand birds: South Island saddleback (SIS), Philesturnus carunculatus, and North Island saddleback (NIS), Philesturnus rufusater. These two species represent a passerine family outside the more extensively studied Passerida infraorder, and both have experienced historic bottlenecks. We examined exon 2 sequence data from populations that represent the majority of genetic diversity remaining in each species. A high level of locus co-amplification was detected, with from 1 to 4 and 3 to 12 putative alleles per individual for South and North Island birds, respectively. We found strong evidence for historic balancing selection in peptide-binding regions of putative alleles, and we identified a cluster combining non-classical loci and pseudogene sequences from both species, although no sequences were shared between the species. Fewer total alleles and fewer alleles per bird in SIS may be a consequence of their more severe bottleneck history; however, overall nucleotide diversity was similar between the species. Our characterization of MHCIIB diversity in two closely related species of New Zealand saddlebacks provides an important step in understanding the mechanisms shaping MHC diversity in wild, bottlenecked populations.

Simulating Retention of Rare Alleles in Small Populations to Assess Management Options for Species with Different Life Histories

Preserving allelic diversity is important because it provides the capacity for adaptation and thus enables long-term population viability. Allele retention is difficult to predict in animals with overlapping generations, so we used a new computer model to simulate retention of rare alleles in small populations of 3 species with contrasting life-history traits: North Island Brown Kiwi (Apteryx mantelli; monogamous, long-lived), North Island Robins (Petroica longipes; monogamous, short-lived), and red deer (Cervus elaphus; polygynous, moderate lifespan). We simulated closed populations under various demographic scenarios and assessed the amounts of artificial immigration needed to achieve a goal of retaining 90% of selectively neutral rare alleles (frequency in the source population = 0.05) after 10 generations. The number of immigrants per generation required to meet the genetic goal ranged from 11 to 30, and there were key similarities and differences among species. None of the species met the genetic goal without immigration, and red deer lost the most allelic diversity due to reproductive skew among polygynous males. However, red deer required only a moderate rate of immigration relative to the other species to meet the genetic goal because nonterritorial breeders had a high turnover. Conversely, North Island Brown Kiwi needed the most immigration because the long lifespan of locally produced territorial breeders prevented a large proportion of immigrants from recruiting. In all species, the amount of immigration needed generally decreased with an increase in carrying capacity, survival, or reproductive output and increased as individual variation in reproductive success increased, indicating the importance of accurately quantifying these parameters to predict the effects of management. Overall, retaining rare alleles in a small, isolated population requires substantial investment of management effort. Use of simulations to explore strategies optimized for the populations in question will help maximize the value of this effort..

AlleleRetain: a program to assess management options for conserving allelic diversity in small, isolated populations

Preserving genetic health is an important aspect of species conservation. Allelic diversity is particularly important to conserve, as it provides capacity for adaptation and thus enables long‐term population viability. Allele retention is difficult to predict beyond one generation for real populations with complex demography and life‐history traits, so we developed a computer model to simulate allele retention in small populations. AlleleRetain is an individual‐based model implemented in r and can be applied to assess management options for conserving allelic diversity in small populations of animals with overlapping generations. AlleleRetain remedies the limitations of similar existing software, and its source code is freely available for further modification. AlleleRetain and its supporting materials can be downloaded from https://sites.google.com/site/alleleretain/ or CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org).