Catherine M. Lowndes

The impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of core group interventions: insights from mathematical models

Mathematical models have highlighted the disproportionate contribution of core group transmitters to the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Because the effectiveness of interventions varies with time, it has been suggested that epidemic phases should be considered in the design of prevention strategies. This study aimed to examine the impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of HIV interventions based on gonorrhoea screening and condom use, targeted to core groups. The results are based on a mathematical model of gonorrhoea and HIV transmission in a relatively slow spreading HIV epidemic using Cotonou (Benin) as an example. For epidemics with a low reproductive potential modest core group interventions can significantly reduce HIV incidence and prevalence. As the epidemic matures, effective interventions should also incorporate core and non-core populations. For epidemics with a high reproductive potential, core group interventions are necessary but not sufficient to have a rapid and large scale impact. A more general population approach is also needed early in the epidemic. Epidemic phases are also important in the evaluation of prevention strategies.

Interventions among male clients of female sex workers in Benin, West Africa: an essential component of targeted HIV preventive interventions

Objectives: To assess the impact of interventions targeted towards female sex workers (FSWs) and their male clients on client HIV/STI prevalence and sexual behaviour. Methods: From 1993 to 2006, an HIV/STI preventive intervention focusing on condom promotion and STI care was implemented among FSWs in Cotonou, Benin, and then expanded to cover their male sexual partners in 2000. The interventions were scaled up to five other cities of Benin in 2001–2002. Serial cross-sectional surveys of HIV/STI prevalence and sexual behaviour were carried out among clients in Cotonou in 1998, 2002 and 2005; and in the five other cities (O/Cotonou) in 2002 and 2005. Results: Significant declines in gonorrhoea prevalence among clients of FSWs: Cotonou, from 5.4% in 1998 to 1.6% in 2005; O/Cotonou: from 3.5% in 2002 to 0.59% in 2005. Chlamydia prevalence also declined O/Cotonou, from 4.8% to 1.8%, while HIV prevalence remained stable. Reported condom use by clients with both FSWs and casual non-FSW partners, but not regular partners, increased significantly. While condom use at last sex with an FSW was similar in Cotonou to O/Cotonou around the time of implementation of the interventions (56% in 1998 vs 49% in 2002, respectively), it had risen to similar levels by 2005 (95% and 96%, respectively). Conclusions: These results demonstrate that it is possible to implement preventive and clinical services for clients of FSWs, and suggest that such interventions, integrated with those targeted towards FSWs, can have a significant effect on sexual behaviour and STI prevalence (particularly gonorrhoea) among this population.

Condom use within non-commercial partnerships of female sex workers in southern India

BackgroundAlthough female sex workers (FSWs) report high levels of condom use with commercial sex clients, particularly after targeted HIV preventive interventions have been implemented, condom use is often low with non-commercial partners. There is limited understanding regarding the factors that influence condom use with FSWs’ non-commercial partners, and of how programs can be designed to increase condom use with these partners. The main objectives of this study were therefore to describe FSWs’ self-reported non-commercial partners, along with interpersonal factors characterizing their non-commercial partnerships, and to examine the factors associated with consistent condom use (CCU) within non-commercial partnerships.MethodsThis study used data collected from cross-sectional questionnaires administered to 988 FSWs in four districts in Karnataka state in 2006-07. We used bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine the relationship between CCU (i.e., ‘always’ compared to ‘never’, ‘sometimes’ or ‘frequently’) with non-commercial partners of FSWs (including the respondents’ husband or main cohabiting partner [if not married] and their most recent non-paying partner [who is neither a husband nor the main cohabiting partner, and with whom the FSW had sex within the previous year]) and interpersonal factors describing these partnerships, as well as social and environmental factors. Weighting and survey methods were used to account for the cluster sampling design.ResultsOverall, 511 (51.8%) FSWs reported having a husband or cohabiting partner and 247 (23.7%) reported having a non-paying partner. CCU with these partners was low (22.6% and 40.3% respectively). In multivariable analysis, the odds of CCU with FSWs’ husband or cohabiting partner were 1.8-fold higher for FSWs whose partner knew she was a sex worker (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.84, 95% confidence intervals[CI]: 1.02-3.32) and almost 6-fold higher if the FSW was unmarried (AOR: 5.73, 95%CI: 2.79-11.76]. CCU with FSWs’ non-paying partner decreased by 18% for each one-year increase in the duration of the relationship (AOR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.68-0.97).ConclusionsThis study revealed important patterns and interpersonal determinants of condom use within non-commercial partnerships of FSWs. Integrated structural and community-driven HIV/STI prevention programs that focus on gender and reduce sex work stigma should be investigated to increase condom use in non-commercial partnerships.

A dose-response relationship between exposure to a large-scale HIV preventive intervention and consistent condom use with different sexual partners of female sex workers in southern India

BackgroundThe Avahan Initiative, a large-scale HIV preventive intervention targeted to high-risk populations including female sex workers (FSWs), was initiated in 2003 in six high-prevalence states in India, including Karnataka. This study assessed if intervention exposure was associated with condom use with FSWs’ sexual partners, including a dose-response relationship.MethodsData were from a cross-sectional study (2006-07) of 775 FSWs in three districts in Karnataka. Survey methods accounted for the complex cluster sampling design. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression was used to separately model the relationships between each of five intervention exposure variables and five outcomes for consistent condom use (CCU= always versus frequently/sometimes/never) with different sex partners, including with: all clients; occasional clients; most recent repeat client; most recent non-paying partner; and the husband or cohabiting partner. Linear tests for trends were conducted for three continuous intervention exposure variables.ResultsFSWs reported highest CCU with all clients (81.7%); CCU was lowest with FSWs’ husband or cohabiting partner (9.6%). In multivariable analysis, the odds of CCU with all clients and with occasional clients were 6.3-fold [95% confidence intervals, CIs: 2.8-14.5] and 2.3-fold [95% CIs: 1.4-4.1] higher among FSWs contacted by intervention staff and 4.9-fold [95% CIs: 2.6-9.3] and 2.3-fold [95% CIs: 1.3-4.1] higher among those who ever observed a condom demonstration by staff, respectively, compared to those who had not. A significant dose-response relationship existed between each of these CCU outcomes and increased duration since first contacted by staff (P=0.001; P=0.006) and numbers of condom demonstrations witnessed (P=0.004; P=0.026); a dose-response relationship was also observed between condom use with all clients and number of times contacted by staff (P=0.047). Intervention exposure was not associated with higher odds of CCU with the most recent repeat client, most recent non-paying partner or with the husband or cohabiting partner.ConclusionStudy findings suggest that exposure to a large-scale HIV intervention for FSWs was associated with increased CCU with commercial clients. Moreover, there were dose-response relationships between CCU with clients and increased duration since first contacted by staff, times contacted by staff and number of condom demonstrations. Additional program effort is required to increase condom use with non-commercial partners.

Assessment of the population-level effectiveness of the Avahan HIV-prevention programme in South India: a preplanned, causal-pathway-based modelling analysis

BACKGROUND Avahan, the India AIDS initiative of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, was a large-scale, targeted HIV prevention intervention. We aimed to assess its overall effectiveness by estimating the number and proportion of HIV infections averted across Avahan districts, following the causal pathway of the intervention. METHODS We created a mathematical model of HIV transmission in high-risk groups and the general population using data from serial cross-sectional surveys (integrated behavioural and biological assessments, IBBAs) within a Bayesian framework, which we used to reproduce HIV prevalence trends in female sex workers and their clients, men who have sex with men, and the general population in 24 South Indian districts over the first 4 years (2004-07 or 2005-08 dependent on the district) and the full 10 years (2004-13) of the Avahan programme. We tested whether these prevalence trends were more consistent with self-reported increases in consistent condom use after the implementation of Avahan or with a counterfactual (assuming consistent condom use increased at slower, pre-Avahan rates) using a Bayes factor, which gave a measure of the strength of evidence for the effectiveness estimates. Using regression analysis, we extrapolated the prevention effect in the districts covered by IBBAs to all 69 Avahan districts. FINDINGS In 13 of 24 IBBA districts, modelling suggested medium to strong evidence for the large self-reported increase in consistent condom use since Avahan implementation. In the remaining 11 IBBA districts, the evidence was weaker, with consistent condom use generally already high before Avahan began. Roughly 32700 HIV infections (95% credibility interval 17900-61600) were averted over the first 4 years of the programme in the IBBA districts with moderate to strong evidence. Addition of the districts with weaker evidence increased this total to 62800 (32000-118000) averted infections, and extrapolation suggested that 202000 (98300-407000) infections were averted across all 69 Avahan districts in South India, increasing to 606000 (290000-1 193000) over 10 years. Over the first 4 years of the programme 42% of HIV infections were averted, and over 10 years 57% were averted. INTERPRETATION This is the first assessment of Avahan to account for the causal pathway of the intervention, that of changing risk behaviours in female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men to avert HIV infections in these groups and the general population. The findings suggest that substantial preventive effects can be achieved by targeted behavioural HIV prevention initiatives. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Emergence of a Neisseria gonorrhoeae clone showing decreased susceptibility to cefixime in England and Wales

OBJECTIVES The third-generation cephalosporins recommended in national guidelines are amongst the last remaining effective agents for treatment of gonorrhoea. This study characterizes gonococcal isolates with decreased cefixime susceptibility from England and Wales. METHODS A total of 96 isolates of Neisseria gonorrhoeae exhibiting cefixime MICs of ≥0.125 mg/L, either collected as part of the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) between 2005 and 2008 (54 from a total of 4649 isolates) or referred to the national reference laboratory in 2008 and 2009 (42 isolates), were tested for susceptibility to a range of antimicrobial agents and were typed using N. gonorrhoeae multiantigen sequence typing (NG-MAST). RESULTS All 96 isolates were also resistant to tetracycline (MIC ≥2 mg/L) and ciprofloxacin (MIC ≥16 mg/L) and 56% showed low-level chromosomal resistance to penicillin. Where data were available, the mean patient age was 31 years, and 88% (83/94) of patients were men. Isolates referred through GRASP were predominantly from men who have sex with men (MSM; 29/44, 66%) and from patients of white British ethnicity (25/43, 58%). The majority of isolates belonged either to sequence type (ST) 1407 (71/96, 74%) or to a highly related ST that shares the tpbB allele (allele 110), but with a different por allele (20/96, 21%). ST1407 was found in both MSM (22/29, 76%) and heterosexual patients (12/15, 80%) and among all eight isolates from patients reporting sex abroad. CONCLUSIONS The emergence of a clonal group of gonococci showing decreased susceptibility to cefixime in England and Wales highlights the need for continued surveillance.

Sexual Identity and Its Contribution to MSM Risk Behavior in Bangaluru (Bangalore), India: The Results of a Two-Stage Cluster Sampling Survey

In India, there are categories of MSM (hijras, kothis, double-deckers, panthis and bisexuals), which are generally associated with different HIV-risk behaviors. Our objective was to quantify differences across MSM identities (n = 357) and assess the extent they conform to typecasts that prevail in policy-orientated discourse. More feminine kothis (26%) and hijras (13%) mostly reported receptive sex, and masculine panthis (15%) and bisexuals (23%) insertive anal sex. However, behavior did not always conform to expectation, with 25% and 16% of the sample reporting both insertive and receptive anal intercourse with known and unknown noncommercial partners, respectively (p < 0.000). Although behavior often complied with stereotyped role and identity, male-with-male sexual practices were fluid. Reification of these categories in an intervention context may hinder our understanding of the differential HIV risk among MSM.

Polling booth surveys: a novel approach for reducing social desirability bias in HIV-related behavioural surveys in resource-poor settings.

This study compared rates of HIV-related sexual risk behaviours reported in individual face-to-face (FTFI) and group anonymous polling booth (PBS) interviews in India. In PBS, respondents grouped by gender and marital status answered yes/no questions by putting tokens with question numbers in colour-coded containers. Data were subsequently collated for each group as a whole, so responses were not traceable back to individuals. Male and female PBS participants reported substantially higher rates of pre-marital, extra-marital, commercial and anal sex than FTFI participants; e.g. 11 vs. 2% married males reported paying for sex; 6 vs. 1% unmarried males reported homosexual anal sex.

Assessment of intervention outcome in the absence of baseline data: 'reconstruction' of condom use time trends using retrospective analysis of survey data.

Background Avahan, the India AIDS Initiative, is a large-scale targeted intervention. Data on condom use prior to Avahan are unavailable. The authors used a novel method of analysing cross-sectional survey data to ‘reconstruct’ condom use rates in presurvey years, and to assess the relationship between Avahan and time trends in condom use among female sex workers (FSWs). Methods Among FSWs reporting consistent condom use (CCU) with clients in surveys from 21 districts in southern India (n=7358), data on length of time using condoms, and length of time selling sex, were converted into number of FSWs using condoms (numerator) and selling sex (denominator) by year, to give yearly rates of CCU from 2001 to year of survey. Linear regression with generalised estimating equations was used to assess time trends and to compare the rate of increase in condom use before and after Avahan initiation in 2003. Results In all 21 districts, the rate of increase in CCU from 2001 to time of the surveys was highly significant. Overall CCU increased from 27% (22%) with occasional (regular) clients in 2001, to 76% (68%) in 2006, respectively. The yearly rate of increase in CCU was significantly greater after (slope 2003–2006: 12.7% (12.0%) per year for occasional (regular) clients) than prior to Avahan (slope 2001–2003: 5.1% (5.3%) per year for occasional (regular) clients) implementation (p<0.0001). Conclusions The findings indicate a positive relationship between implementation of the Avahan programme and rates of CCU increase among FSW. This method of analysis may be useful in other contexts where preintervention data are lacking.

What is the achievable effectiveness of the India AIDS Initiative intervention among female sex workers under target coverage? Model projections from southern India

Background: The India AIDS Initiative (Avahan) prevention programme funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation aims to reduce HIV prevalence in high risk groups such as female and male sex workers and their clients, to limit HIV transmission in the general population. Objectives: To assess the potential effectiveness of the Avahan intervention at the level of coverage targeted, in different epidemiological settings in India. Methods: A deterministic compartmental model of the transmission dynamics of HIV and two sexually transmitted infections, and sensitivity analysis techniques, were used, in combination with available behavioural and epidemiological data from Mysore and Bagalkot districts in the Indian state of Karnataka, to evaluate the syndromic sexually transmitted infection (STI) management (STI treatment), periodic presumptive treatment of STI (PPT), and condom components of the Avahan intervention targeted to female sex workers (FSW). Results: If all components of the intervention reach target coverage (that is, PPT, STI treatment and condom use), the intervention is expected to prevent 22–35% of all new HIV infections in FSW and in the total population over 5 years in a low transmission setting like Mysore, and to be half as effective in high transmission settings such as Bagalkot. The results were sensitive to small variations in intervention coverage. The condom component alone is expected to prevent around 20% of all new HIV infections over 5 years in Mysore and around 6% for the STI component alone; compared with 7%–14% for the PPT component alone. Multivariate sensitivity analyses suggested that interventions may be more effective in settings with low FSW HIV prevalence and small FSW populations, whereas HIV prevalence was most influenced by sexual behaviour and condom use parameters for FSW. Conclusion: The Avahan intervention is expected to be effective. However, to be able to demonstrate effectiveness empirically in the different settings, it is important to achieve target coverage or higher, which in the case of PPT could take a number of years to achieve. These preliminary model predictions need to be validated with more detailed mathematical models, as better data on sexual behaviour, condom use, STI and HIV trends over time, and intervention coverage data accumulate over the course of the programme.