Cathrine Fox Maule

Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.

Improved confidence in regional climate model simulations of precipitation evaluated using drought statistics from the ENSEMBLES models

An ensemble of regional climate model simulations from the European framework project ENSEMBLES is compared with observations of low precipitation events across a number of European regions. We characterize precipitation deficits in terms of two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Models that robustly describe the observations for the period 1961–2000 in given regions are identified and an assessment of the overall performance of the ensemble is provided. The results show that in general, models capture the most severe drought events and that the ensemble mean model also performs well. Some regions that appear to be more problematic to simulate well are also identified. These are relatively small regions and have rather complex topographical features. The analysis suggests that assessment of future drought occurrence based on climate change experiments in general would appear to be robust. But due to the heterogeneous and often fine-scaled structure of drought occurrence, quantitative results should be used with great care, particularly in regions with complex terrain and limited information about past drought occurrence.

Analyzing and correcting for contaminating magnetic fields at the Brorfelde geomagnetic observatory due to high voltage DC power lines

The magnetic field observations made at the geomagnetic observatory Brorfelde (BFE), Denmark, are subject to disturbances of several nT caused by two single wire high-voltage DC power lines connecting Scandinavia with Central Europe. We have analysed how the magnetic disturbances relate to the currents in the power lines and found a linear relationship. Using linear regression on carefully selected parts of the available data series we have determined the factors of proportionality. Based on the simple relationship between the currents in the power lines and the observed magnetic disturbances, we have derived a method to correct the observatory data for a significant part of the disturbances. In addition we have investigated the influence of the disturbances on the determination of the K-index of the observatory. We found that the K-index based on the original disturbed data compared to the K-indices calculated from corrected data was different in 4% of the 3-hour intervals for the investigated period.