Catia Batista

Introducing Mobile Money in Rural Mozambique: Evidence from a Field Experiment

The limitations of access to finance in Africa, together with the recent boom in cell phone use in that continent, created high expectations regarding the introduction of mobile money in many African countries. The success story of M-PESA in Kenya raised the bar further. We designed and conducted a field experiment to assess the impact of randomized mobile money dissemination in rural Mozambique. For this purpose we benefit from the fact that mobile money was only recently launched in the country, allowing for the identification of a pure control group. This paper reports on the first results of this ongoing project after the first wave of dissemination efforts in rural locations, which included the recruitment and training of mobile money agents, community meetings and theaters, as well as individual rural campaigning. Administrative and behavioral data both show clear adherence to the services in the treatment group. Financial literacy and trust outcomes are also positively affected by the treatment. We present behavioral evidence that the marginal willingness to remit was increased by the availability of mobile money. Finally, we observe a tendency for mobile money to substitute traditional alternatives for both savings and remittances. JEL codes: O12, O33, G20, R23

Stages of Diversification and Capital Accumulation in an Heckscher-Ohlin World, 1975-1995

Why do we observe a U-shaped industrial concentration curve over an economys development path? We show that at least one third of this phenomenon is explained by the effect of capital accumulation on industrial specialization.

Migrant Remittances and Information Flows: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Do information flows matter for remittance behavior? We design and implement a randomized control trial to quantitatively assess the role of communication between migrants and their contacts abroad on the extent and value of remittance flows. In the experiment, a random sample of 1,500 migrants residing in Ireland was offered the possibility of contacting their networks outside the host country for free over a varying number of months. We find a sizable, positive impact of our intervention on the value of migrant remittances sent. Our results exclude that the remittance effect we identify is a simple substitution effect. Instead, our analysis points to this effect being a likely result of improved information via factors such as better migrant control over remittance use, enhanced trust in remittance channels due to experience sharing, or increased remittance recipients’ social pressure on migrants.

Can the IMF`s Medium-Term Growth Projections be Improved?

Numerous reports have noted that the IMFs medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sample forecasting properties relative to those of IMF projections. The models projections outperform those of the IMF in all regions and among most income groups-projections are less biased (one-quarter of the IMF bias) and have smaller standard errors (20 percent lower root mean squared errors) even after controlling for the IMFs macroeconomic assumptions. The paper does not attempt to address the criticisms that have been leveled against the empirical growth literature, but the results suggest that benefits can be derived from bringing systematic analysis to bear on cross-country information.

International Specialization and the Return to Capital

Abstract How does factor accumulation affect an open economy’s pattern of international specialization and returns to capital? We provide a new integrated treatment to this question using a panel of 44 developing and developed countries over the period 1976–2000. The data confirm the Heckscher-Ohlin prediction that, with sufficient differences in country endowments, there is no factor price equalization and countries specialize in different subsets of goods. Innovatively, we obtain the returns to capital implied by this model: these are consistent with the Lucas paradox, which we explain after accounting for cross-country differences in the cost of capital goods. Our findings are also consistent with Ventura’s hypothesis that the growth of small open economies can be promoted by “beating the curse of diminishing returns” – indeed we find no decrease in the return to capital at any given capital-labor ratio despite capital accumulation by most countries within a cone of diversification.

Return Migration, Self-selection and Entrepreneurship†

Are return migrants more entrepreneurial? Existing literature has not addressed how estimating the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self-selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper exploits exogenous variation provided by the civil war and the incidence of agricultural plagues in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to overall negative unobservable return migrant self-selection, which results in an under-estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naive’ estimator that does not control for self-selection at both the initial migration and at the final return migration stages.

Remittance Flows to Developing Countries: Trends, Importance and Impact

Estimates of remittance flows to developing countries reached

Testing the 'Brain Gain' Hypothesis: MIcro Evidence from Cape Verde

406 billion in 2012 and are forecast to grow at a rate of 8% over the next two years. The aim of this chapter is to analyse the impact of remittances on recipient households and countries. We start by surveying the economics literature on the effect of remittances on poverty and consumption of remittance recipients. Next, we explore the recent evidence on whether and how remittances are invested in human capital and entrepreneurial activities. Finally, we discuss the likely impact of more stringent immigration rules and rising unemployment rates in developed countries on future remittance flows.