Catrin Promper

A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south-east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania

Assessment of risk considering both the probability of occurrence of a natural phenomenon and its consequences on the elements at risk is an essential step before the design of adequate risk reduction strategies in local, regional or national level. Within the EU-funded project SEERISK “Joint disaster management risk assessment and preparedness for the Danube macro-region”, a common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for climate change-related hazards has been developed. Vulnerability assessment is a large part of the risk assessment procedure, and it requires a considerable amount of detailed data. The methodology for risk assessment presented here is in line with the EC Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping, and it provides alternatives in order to tackle the problem of varying data quality and quantity necessary for the analysis of hazard and vulnerability. In the present study, the methodology is adapted for heat waves and is applied in the city of Arad, Romania. Based on data regarding surface temperatures and emergency services interventions from past events during the daytime and the night-time, two hazard and two impact maps were developed, respectively, as well as a risk matrix for the night- and the daytime. A heat wave risk map was then developed that can be used by the emergency planners and services in order to prioritise their actions and focus on the hotspots as far as potential victims are concerned. The results of the case study apart from providing a tool for decision-makers and emergency planers also demonstrate the applicability of the common risk assessment methodology developed as being a profound theoretical basis for distinct risk-mapping exercises.

Climate change impact for spatial landslide susceptibility

Climate change is influencing future precipitation patterns. Especially the short intense rainfalls are expected to increase. Intense precipitation is regarded as one of the main landslide triggering factors. In order to investigate the likely impacts of precipitation change on spatial and temporal patterns of landslide susceptibility it is important to distinguish which type of rainfall has a major influence. Therefore, this study analyses the influence of precipitation maxima and antecedent rainfall conditions on landslide susceptibility. Other dynamic factors such as land cover change are excluded from the analysis. Logistic regression was applied to derive landslide susceptibility maps based on different climate change scenarios. Independent variables were several precipitation indices, current land cover maps and DTM derivatives (e.g. the slope gradient, aspect and curvature). The dependent variable was an inventory of shallow landslides for the period 1962–2007. The extrapolation of landslide susceptibility to the future was performed by applying the coefficients determined from past precipitation indices to those computed from future climate scenarios. The assumption herein is that conditions of the future that are similar to the past result in the same consequences. The study area Waidhofen/Ybbs is located in the alpine foreland in the province of Lower Austria. The predominant lithology is composed of calcareous rocks and Flysch. The land cover is mainly grassland and forest. The results show distinct changes in landslide susceptibility for some regions of the study area. Altered precipitation patterns intensify landslide susceptibility as well as enlarge susceptible areas.