Ce Shang

The distribution of cigarette prices under different tax structures: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project

Background The distribution of cigarette prices has rarely been studied and compared under different tax structures. Descriptive evidence on price distributions by countries can shed light on opportunities for tax avoidance and brand switching under different tobacco tax structures, which could impact the effectiveness of increased taxation in reducing smoking. Objective This paper aims to describe the distribution of cigarette prices by countries and to compare these distributions based on the tobacco tax structure in these countries. Methods We employed data for 16 countries taken from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project to construct survey-derived cigarette prices for each country. Self-reported prices were weighted by cigarette consumption and described using a comprehensive set of statistics. We then compared these statistics for cigarette prices under different tax structures. In particular, countries of similar income levels and countries that impose similar total excise taxes using different tax structures were paired and compared in mean and variance using a two-sample comparison test. Findings Our investigation illustrates that, compared with specific uniform taxation, other tax structures, such as ad valorem uniform taxation, mixed (a tax system using ad valorem and specific taxes) uniform taxation, and tiered tax structures of specific, ad valorem and mixed taxation tend to have price distributions with greater variability. Countries that rely heavily on ad valorem and tiered taxes also tend to have greater price variability around the median. Among mixed taxation systems, countries that rely more heavily on the ad valorem component tend to have greater price variability than countries that rely more heavily on the specific component. In countries with tiered tax systems, cigarette prices are skewed more towards lower prices than are prices under uniform tax systems. The analyses presented here demonstrate that more opportunities exist for tax avoidance and brand switching when the tax structure departs from a uniform specific tax.

The Effect of Smoke-Free Air Law in Bars on Smoking Initiation and Relapse among Teenagers and Young Adults

Background: Existing evidence has shown that most smoking uptake and escalation occurs while smokers are teenagers or young adults. Effective policies that reduce smoking uptake and escalation will play an important role in curbing cigarette smoking. This study aims to investigate the effect of smoke-free air (SFA) laws in bars on smoking initiation/relapse while controlling for other confounders. Methods: The national longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) from 1997–2009 was linked to state-level scores for the strength of SFA laws in order to carry out the analysis. Results and Conclusion: We find that SFA laws in bars with exemptions significantly reduce (p ≤ 0.01) the probability of smoking initiation (one-puff, daily, and heavy smoking initiation). The 100% SFA law in bars without exemption significantly deters smoking relapse from abstinence into daily smoking (p ≤ 0.05) or relapse from abstinence into heavy smoking (p ≤ 0.01) among people age 21 or older. The reduction of one-puff and daily smoking initiation is larger among ages 20 or younger than ages 21 or older, while the reduction in relapse does not differ by whether respondents reach the drinking age. Results also indicate that higher cigarette taxes significantly reduce daily smoking initiation and relapse into nondaily and light smoking.

A duration analysis of the role of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation in developing countries

Abstract This study evaluates the impact of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation among adults in two pooled samples of 6 low- to lower-middle income countries (LMICs) and 8 upper-middle income countries (UMICs). We find that, while higher prices reduce smoking across the board, this reduction occurs through different behavioral mechanisms in lower versus higher income countries. Specifically, cigarette prices reduce smoking rates by deterring initiation in LMICs while in UMICs they act primarily by promoting cessation. Because current smoking rates are relatively lower in LMICs and relatively higher in UMICs, this differential mechanism underscores the adaptability of tobacco prices as a tool for regulating tobacco use across countries at different levels of development; it shows that prices can be used to sustain the relatively low rates of smoking in LMICs by preventing entry of new smokers, and can reduce the relatively high rates of smoking in UMICs by encouraging exit of existing smokers. Using split-population duration models and controlling for fixed and time-varying unobserved country characteristics, we estimate that the price elasticity of initiation in LMICs is −0.74 and the price elasticity of cessation in UMICs is 0.51.

Who Quits? An Overview of Quitters in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

INTRODUCTION Using the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys from 14 primarily low- and middle-income countries, we describe the association between the probability of being a recent quitter and a number of demographic and policy-relevant factors such as exposure to warning labels, work-site smoking bans, antismoking media messaging, tobacco marketing, and current cigarette and bidi prices. METHODS Logistic regressions were used to examine the potential correlates of recent quitting and recent quit attempts. RESULTS After accounting for country-specific attributes in pooled analyses, we found that higher rates of exposure to work-site smoking bans are associated with higher odds of being a quitter (odds ratio [OR] with 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13 [1.04, 1.22]). Exposure to antismoking media messaging (OR with 95% CI = 1.08 [1.00, 1.17]), work-site smoking bans (OR with 95% CI = 1.11 [0.99, 1.26]), and warning labels (OR with 95% CI = 1.03 [1.01, 1.05]); cigarette prices (OR with 95% CI = 1.01 [1.00, 1.02]), and bidi prices (OR with 95% CI =1.17 [1.11, 1.22]) are factors associated with higher odds of recent quit attempts in the pooled analysis. These effects vary by country. Exposure to warning labels is found to be associated with greater likelihood of recent quitting in Egypt (OR with 95% CI = 3.20 [1.53, 6.68]), and the positive association between exposure to work-site smoking bans and quitting is particularly strong for Southeast Asia (OR with 95% CI = 1.20 [1.06, 1.35]) and Asia Pacific countries (OR with 95% CI = 1.85 [0.93, 3.68]). Additionally, exposure to tobacco industry marketing is significantly associated with smaller odds of quitting in Asia Pacific (OR with 95% CI = 0.83 [0.79, 0.87]) and Latin American countries (OR with 95% CI = 0.78 [0.74, 0.82]). CONCLUSIONS Although our results vary by country, they generally suggest that greater exposure to tobacco control polices is significantly associated with quitting.

The effect of MPOWER scores on cigarette smoking prevalence and consumption

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the MPOWER package to support policy implementation under the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This study examined the effect of MPOWER policies on smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in a global context. METHODS The MPOWER composite score was constructed by adding up the six MPOWER scores for each country and survey year 2007-2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014, with a possible range between 6 (1 in each of the six score) and 29 (4 in M score and 5 in POWER scores). MPOWER composite scores that measured policy implementation were then linked to cigarette smoking prevalence and consumption data from Euromonitor International. Fractional logit and OLS regressions were employed to examine the effect of the composite MPOWER score on adult smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption, respectively. RESULTS Results indicate that a 1-unit increase in the composite score reduces smoking prevalence by 0.2 percentage points (p<0.05) among adults and 0.3 percentage points (p<0.01) among adult males; and a reduction of 23 sticks of cigarette (1 pack of cigarettes) in cigarette consumption per capita per year. At this rate, if countries had implemented the MPOWER package to the highest levels during 2007-2014, they would have experienced a reduction in smoking prevalence of 7.26% among adults and 7.87% among adult males and a reduction of 13.80% in cigarette consumption. CONCLUSIONS MPOWER policies were effective in reducing cigarette smoking among adults. Parties should continue to implement MPOWER policies that have been recommended by the WHO FCTC to curb tobacco epidemic.

The use of legal, illegal and roll-your-own cigarettes to increasing tobacco excise taxes and comprehensive tobacco control policies: findings from the ITC Uruguay Survey

Background Little research has been done to examine whether smokers switch to illegal or roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes in response to a change in their relative price. Objective This paper explores how relative prices between three cigarette forms (manufactured legal, manufactured illegal and RYO cigarettes) are associated with the choice of one form over another after controlling for covariates, including sociodemographic characteristics, smokers’ exposure to antismoking messaging, health warning labels and tobacco marketing. Methods Generalised estimating equations were employed to analyse the association between the price ratio of two different cigarette forms and the usage of one form over the other. Findings A 10% increase in the relative price ratio of legal to RYO cigarettes is associated with a 4.6% increase in the probability of consuming RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). In addition, more exposure to antismoking messaging is associated with a lower odds of choosing RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). Non-significant associations exist between the manufactured illegal to legal cigarette price ratios and choosing manufactured illegal cigarettes, suggesting that smokers do not switch to manufactured illegal cigarettes as prices of legal ones increase. However, these non-significant findings may be due to lack of variation in the price ratio measures. To improve the effectiveness of increased taxes and prices in reducing smoking, policymakers need to narrow price variability in the tobacco market. Moreover, increasing antismoking messaging reduces tax avoidance in the form of switching to cheaper RYO cigarettes in Uruguay.

Global Evidence on the Association between POS Advertising Bans and Youth Smoking Participation.

Background: Point-of-sale (POS) tobacco advertising has been linked to youth smoking susceptibility and experimental smoking. However, there is limited evidence of the association between POS advertising bans and youth smoking participation. This study aims to examine how such bans are associated with current smoking, daily smoking, and regular smoking (≥1 cigarettes per day) participation among youth. Methods: one to two waves (primarily one wave) of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey were conducted in 130 countries between 2007 and 2011. These surveys were linked to the WHO “MPOWER” data using country and year identifiers to analyze the association between POS advertising bans (a dichotomous measure of the existence of such bans) and smoking participation in the past month. Weighted logistic regressions were employed to analyze this association while controlling for age, gender, parents’ smoking status, 6 MPOWER policy scores, and GDP per capita. Results and Conclusions: We find that in countries with POS advertising bans, current smoking (OR = 0.73, p ≤ 0.1), daily smoking (OR = 0.70, p ≤ 0.1), and regular smoking (OR = 0.75, p ≤ 0.05) participation in the past month is significantly lower, suggesting that POS promotion bans can potentially reduce youth smoking. This study provides evidence to support the implementation of POS promotion regulations by the US FDA and implementation of the WHO FCTC guidelines regarding restrictions on tobacco POS promotion.

The association between tax structure and cigarette price variability: findings from the ITC Project

Background Recent studies have shown that more opportunities exist for tax avoidance when cigarette excise tax structure departs from a uniform specific structure. However, the association between tax structure and cigarette price variability has not been thoroughly studied in the existing literature. Objective To examine how cigarette tax structure is associated with price variability. The variability of self-reported prices is measured using the ratios of differences between higher and lower prices to the median price such as the IQR-to-median ratio. Methods We used survey data taken from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project in 17 countries to conduct the analysis. Cigarette prices were derived using individual purchase information and aggregated to price variability measures for each surveyed country and wave. The effect of tax structures on price variability was estimated using Generalised Estimating Equations after adjusting for year and country attributes. Findings Our study provides empirical evidence of a relationship between tax structure and cigarette price variability. We find that, compared to the specific uniform tax structure, mixed uniform and tiered (specific, ad valorem or mixed) structures are associated with greater price variability (p≤0.01). Moreover, while a greater share of the specific component in total excise taxes is associated with lower price variability (p≤0.05), a tiered tax structure is associated with greater price variability (p≤0.01). The results suggest that a uniform and specific tax structure is the most effective tax structure for reducing tobacco consumption and prevalence by limiting price variability and decreasing opportunities for tax avoidance.

The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

Weight control belief and its impact on the effectiveness of tobacco control policies on quit attempts: findings from the ITC 4 Country Survey

Background Weight concerns are widely documented as one of the major barriers for girls and young adult women to quit smoking. Therefore, it is important to investigate whether smokers who have weight concerns respond to tobacco control policies differently than smokers who do not in terms of quit attempts, and how this difference varies by gender and country. Objective This study aims to investigate, by gender and country, whether smokers who believe that smoking helps control weight are less responsive to tobacco control policies with regards to quit attempts than those who do not. Methods We use longitudinal data from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project in the USA, Canada, the UK and Australia to conduct the analysis. We first constructed a dichotomous indicator for smokers who have the weight control belief and then examined the disparity in policy responsiveness in terms of quit attempts by directly estimating the interaction terms of policies and the weight control belief indicator using generalised estimating equations. Findings We find that weight control belief significantly attenuates the policy impact of tobacco control measures on quit attempts among US female smokers and among UK smokers. This pattern was not found among smokers in Canada and Australia. Conclusions Although our results vary by gender and country, the findings suggest that weight concerns do alter policy responsiveness in quit attempts in certain populations. Policy makers should take this into account and alleviate weight concerns to enhance the effectiveness of existing tobacco control policies on promoting quitting smoking.