Cesaire Meh

Bank Leverage Regulation and Macroeconomic Dynamics

This paper assesses the merits of countercyclical bank balance sheet regulation for the stabilization of financial and economic cycles and examines its interaction with monetary policy. The framework used is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelwith banks and bank capital, in which bank capital solves an asymmetric information problem between banks and their creditors. In this economy, the lending decisions of individual banks affect the riskiness of the whole banking sector, though banks do not internalize this impact. Regulation, in the form of a constraint on bank leverage, can mitigate the impact of this externality by inducing banks to alter the intensity of their monitoring efforts. We find that countercyclical bank leverage regulation can have desirable stabilization properties, particularly when financial shocks are an important source of economic fluctuations. However, the appropriate contribution of countercyclical capital requirements to stabilization after a technology shock depends on the size of the externality and on the conduct of the monetary authority.

Inflation, nominal portfolios, and wealth redistribution in Canada

This paper quantifies the redistributional effects of inflation in Canada that arise through the revaluation of nominal assets and liabilities. We find that the effects are non‐trivial even for low inflation episodes. The main winners are young, middle‐class households with mortgage debt. The government receives a windfall gain from its long‐term debt. The old, the rich or the middle‐aged, middle‐class lose, largely owing to their holdings of bonds and non‐indexed defined benefit pension assets. Finally, our Canada‐U.S. comparison reveals that the extent of redistributions can be quite different even between countries of similar economic and legal environments. (Ce texte quantifie les effets de redistribution de la richesse de l’inflation au Canada attribuable a la reevaluation des actifs et des dettes nominaux. On decouvre que ces effets ne sont pas insignifiants meme pour des episodes de faible inflation. Le gouvernement encaisse un gain inattendu de sa dette a long terme. Les plus vieux, les riches ou la classe moyenne d’âge moyen essuient des pertes a cause des obligations qu’ils detiennent et des actifs non‐indexes dans leurs regimes de rentes a prestations definies. Finalement, les comparaisons Canada‐Etats‐Unis montrent que l’importance de la redistribution peut etre fort differente meme entre deux pays ou les environnements economiques et legaux se ressemblent.)

Financial Intermediation, Liquidity and Inflation

This paper develops a search-theoretic model to study the interaction between banking and monetary policy and how this interaction affects allocation and welfare. Regarding how banking affects the welfare costs of inflation, we find that, with banking, inflation generates lower welfare costs. We also find that lowering inflation improves welfare not just by reducing consumption/production distortions, but also by avoiding financial intermediation costs. Therefore, understanding the nature of financial intermediation is critical for accurately assessing the welfare gain from lowering the inflation rate. Regarding how monetary policy affects the welfare effects of banking, we find that, when the inflation is low, banking is not active in channeling liquidity; when inflation is high, banking is active and improves welfare; and when inflation is moderate, banking is active but reduces welfare. Owing to general-equilibrium feedback, banking is supported in equilibrium even though welfare is higher without banking.

Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions

The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions. Productivity increases with knowledge, which advances via innovation, and with the exchange of ideas from those who generate them to those best able to implement them (technology transfer). But frictions in this market, including search, bargaining, and commitment problems, impede exchange and thus slow growth. We characterize optimal policies to subsidize research and trade in ideas, given both knowledge and search externalities. We discuss the roles of liquidity and financial institutions, and show two ways in which intermediation can enhance efficiency and innovation. First, intermediation allows us to finance more transactions with fewer assets. Second, it ameliorates certain bargaining problems, by allowing entrepreneurs to undo otherwise sunk investments in liquidity. We also discuss some evidence, suggesting that technology transfer is a significant source of innovation and showing how it is affected by credit considerations.

Uncertainty and the Specificity of Human Capital

This paper studies the choice between general and specific human capital. A trade-off arises because general human capital, while less productive, can easily be reallocated across firms. Accordingly, the fraction of individuals with specific human capital depends on the amount of uncertainty in the economy. Our model implies that while economies with more specific human capital tend to be more productive, they also tend to be more vulnerable to turbulence. As such, our theory sheds some light on the experience of Japan, where human capital is notoriously specific: while Japan benefited from this predominately specific labor force in tranquil times, this specificity may also have been at the heart of its prolonged stagnation.

A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy

We construct a small-open-economy, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with real-financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. Our model has four key features. First, it allows for non-trivial interactions between the balance sheets of households, firms and banks within a unified framework. Second, it incorporates a risk-taking channel by allowing the risk appetite of investors to depend on aggregate economic activity and funding conditions. Third, it incorporates long-term debt by allowing households and businesses to pay back their stock of debt over multiple periods. Fourth, it incorporates targeted and broader macroprudential instruments to analyze the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policy. The model also features nominal and real rigidities, and is calibrated to match dynamics in Canadian macroeconomic and financial data. We study the transmission of monetary policy and financial shocks in the model economy, and analyze the effectiveness of various policies in simultaneously achieving macroeconomic and financial stability. We find that, in terms of reducing household debt, more targeted tools such as loan-to-value regulations are the most effective and least costly, followed by bank capital regulations and monetary policy, respectively.

Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy

We perform an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loanto- value (LTV) ratio can reduce household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compared with a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation. To this end, we construct a New Keynesian model in which a fraction of households borrow against the value of their houses and we introduce news shocks on housing demand. We estimate the model with Canadian data using Bayesian methods. We find that the introduction of news shocks can generate a housing market boom-bust cycle, the bust following unrealized expectations on housing demand. Our study also suggests that a countercyclical LTV ratio is a useful policy to reduce the spillover from the housing market to consumption, and to lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing price and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments.

Inflation, Nominal Portfolios, and Wealth Redistribution in Canada (Inflation, Portefeuilles Nominaux, Et Redistribution De La Richesse AU Canada)

This paper quantifies the redistributional effects of inflation in Canada that arise through the revaluation of nominal assets and liabilities. We find that the effects are non‐trivial even for low inflation episodes. The main winners are young, middle‐class households with mortgage debt. The government receives a windfall gain from its long‐term debt. The old, the rich or the middle‐aged, middle‐class lose, largely owing to their holdings of bonds and non‐indexed defined benefit pension assets. Finally, our Canada‐U.S. comparison reveals that the extent of redistributions can be quite different even between countries of similar economic and legal environments. (Ce texte quantifie les effets de redistribution de la richesse de l’inflation au Canada attribuable a la reevaluation des actifs et des dettes nominaux. On decouvre que ces effets ne sont pas insignifiants meme pour des episodes de faible inflation. Le gouvernement encaisse un gain inattendu de sa dette a long terme. Les plus vieux, les riches ou la classe moyenne d’âge moyen essuient des pertes a cause des obligations qu’ils detiennent et des actifs non‐indexes dans leurs regimes de rentes a prestations definies. Finalement, les comparaisons Canada‐Etats‐Unis montrent que l’importance de la redistribution peut etre fort differente meme entre deux pays ou les environnements economiques et legaux se ressemblent.)

INNOVATION AND GROWTH WITH FINANCIAL, AND OTHER, FRICTIONS: GROWTH WITH FRICTIONS

The generation of ideas and their implementation are crucial for economic performance. We study this in a model of endogenous growth, where productivity increases with innovation and where the exchange of ideas (technology transfer) allows those with comparative advantage to implement them. Search, bargaining, and commitment frictions impede the idea market, however, reducing efficiency and growth. We characterize optimal policies involving subsidies to innovative and entrepreneurial activity, given both knowledge and search externalities. The role of liquidity is discussed. We show intermediation helps by financing more transactions with fewer assets and, more subtly, by ameliorating holdup problems. We also discuss some evidence.